The news is really simple these days. It’s all about the midterms, so we’ll be simple on an analysis six days out.
The polls all seem to agree that the House is going Republican. So let’s leave that, because we have long written that would be the case.
Which leaves the senate and the fight for control.
Now the polls are all over the place as we saw a few days ago with the NYT poll showing an edge for Democrats and other polls say the movement is all toward the Republicans.
What to believe then?
We think the last few weeks have seen an edge right with Republicans gaining. For a few days this week there was a pause and things flattened out.
Now it looks like the momentum is going right again. You can only cry “they will cut your your social security” for so many decades before people realize what they are doing.
The caution we give you is one thing that maybe the pollsters and pundits are not watching or analyzing as close as they should is the early vote.
It was the mail in vote that won the election for President Biden.
We repeat, 81 million people were not going out to vote for him as much as they mailed in a ballot against Donald Trump, who was encouraging his people to go vote in person on Election Day.
Instead of learning from that folly and realizing that up to three months to get someone to vote beats a one day turnout, the same is happening today.
Why the Republicans have not learned this is beyond our reasoning.
On any single day bad weather, an illness, a broken car, long lines, another event, or a thousand other things can impact turnout.
A vote is a vote, no matter when it is cast.
Well the early turnout is close to 25 million already. 45% Democrat and 33% Republican.
Why does the GOP want to start out so far behind?
Are the pollsters measuring this? Are they doing it right?
The answer to that question is the answer to who will control the senate.
Just fuel for thought as we close in, six days from Election Day.