It’s Halloween Monday…

Tricks And Treats In The News

Well, mostly tricks a week and day from the midterms.

With a week and a day to go we will stick with our prediction of 230-235 House seats going Republican and their winning the senate with at least 51 seats.

You can tell about the trend by where parties send their big hitters in the final 10-14 days.
If they go to states that should be locked up for them, they are in trouble.
If they go to competitive states that offer pick ups, you know they are confident.

Look at where the Democrats sent and are sending their heavyweight (Former President Obama).
He was in Georgia and Michigan this weekend. Two seats the Democrats are trying to hold.
Then he is going to Nevada for Sen. Masto and Gov. Sisolak on Wednesday.  
From there onto a Phoenix rally for Sen. Kelly and New Hampshire for Sen. Hassan.
Those are three must hold senate seats for the Democrats.
Not what the party expected for a senate calendar that held promise for the party this cycle.

In the last week the rhetoric really gets out of hand too.
In Georgia Obama told the crowd that “Georgia deserves better” than Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker.
Fair enough.
Is it because he paid for an abortion, or his wife said he threatened her?
Does that mean that his opponent (Sen. Warnock) is more deserving because his wife said he threatened her and actually drove his car over her foot?

What’s also interesting is the recognition by the party of the popularity of President Biden.
Though not getting much coverage, look at where the President will be this week:
He will head to Florida, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Mexico and California.
Now Pennsylvania is the state he spends more time than anywhere outside Delaware. He goes by Scranton Joe.
Maryland? The Democrat Governor is up by 30+ points. In New Mexico the Governor is up 8-10. California? Newsom is not even campaigning he is such a lock.
Either he’s not welcome where the election is close, or he wants to claim victory where he went.

What About The Issues?

Well, I heard over the weekend over and over that Republicans want to cut social security and medicare. The same thing we hear every election cycle. In between cycles we hear about the system is under funded and we need a solution.
But you can fool some of the people all the time and over and over on the same issue.

I heard Democrats want to lower healthcare costs. As soon as I see my $2,500 reduction from Obamacare, I will buy into that.

I heard Republicans say they are going to get to the bottom of all these issues. Well the last time you had the majority you said that and here we are again.

I heard that legal abortions in the nation fell 6% in the first two months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe. Now if you tell me how you feel about that, I will know how you are likely voting.
Is it good or bad that 6% more babies might be born?

Then there’s the attempt to tie the Paul Pelosi attacker to the Jan. 6th event, Donald Trump and Republicans overall.
We may want to await the facts here.
The way some of lawmakers and press members talk about the attack and “horrendous memories” it brings back about the capital attack is interesting.
Do they think the thousands who had their businesses looted, burned and attacked have anxiety every time the press reports on another police action?
Do they think the people in cities who say they are scared to walk the streets, ride the subway or go out have feelings too?
Do they remember there was a person who went to a Supreme Court Justice’s house to kill him and his family? Maybe it doesn’t matter because it was Brett Kavanaugh?
Do they remember the shooting of Republican congressmen by a Bernie Sanders supporter?
Do they remember the Republican candidate for Governor getting attacked this campaign? The shooting outside his home with his young daughters home alone?
Guess what?
They all have feelings too.

We read the election in key states is close and we see polls.
Well, if you’re rooting for the Democrats, you can feel good with the NYT and Siena College Poll out this AM.
In every key race Democrats have leaped ahead:
In Arizona: Kelly 51 – Masters 45
In Georgia: Warnock 49 – Walker 46
In Nevada it’s a tie now, 47-47 between Masto and Lexalt
In Penn. Fetterman 49 – Oz 44.
My opinion on both Siena and Quinnipac Colleges, who continue to put out polls that are most often so wrong is this:
It has to hurt their reputation as a school. Why would they not correct what they do?
Let’s see how right they and the NYT are this time.

Happy Halloween.

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