Closing In On The Mid Terms
As the summer unfolded we all felt and saw the mid term election swinging from the “Red Wave” that had been talked about to a jump ball. It could go either way.
As August came to an end we mentioned that we saw Democratic momentum seem to have peaked and it was switching back a red lean.
Now we’re three weeks and a day out, where are we?
If you follow the national polls it depends on which station or publication you read as to what they think is going to happen. Most give the Republicans a slight edge to win the House and almost all call the Senate a toss up.
Here’s our analysis, twenty two days away:
The House is going Republican.
From their current 211 seats they are going up at least 20 seats to a 231 – 204 advantage. Depending on events over the weeks ahead they could go as high as 235.
The Senate is most interesting.
In a 50/50 senate every seat would be vital and a key. As we reported, this was a year of challenge for Republicans. They had 21 seats up and the Democrats only 14. (2024 is the reverse)
The race has gone back and forth, but as of this writing we think the Republicans have a better chance for a pick up a seat(s) than the Democrats.
As the polls have settled and the debates mostly run their course, we see only one chance for a Democratic pick up. That is in Pennsylvania with John Fetterman; but even that race has narrowed and is at least a toss up now.
Are there others?
Yes, but they seem like longer shots in Ohio, NC, Wisconsin and Florida.
On the other side, Republicans have some real chances.
Nevada looks like a real shot. Georgia, after the debate this week is closing. Arizona narrowed after that debate.
Others in the realm of possibility: Colorado, Washington, New Hampshire.
The bottom line is this, if Republicans retain PA they will very likely end up with a majority in the Senate too.
As of this writing, that’s our prediction.
The NYT had an interesting view on the weeks ahead. They said what could save the Democrats is this:
President Biden’s efforts to stay out of the news — and Donald Trump’s efforts to stay in it.
Democrats want to make abortion front and center of every race. That is their motivator to get people to the polls. The other is Donald Trump and Jan. 6th.
Republicans want to avoid that and talk about everything else. Inflation, energy, border, crime, deficit, you name it, and they want Donald Trump quiet.
Watch what the media covers as the weeks unfold, it could influence people. A great example was the hit job this AM that GMA did on Hershel Walker. They recognized what happened in their single debate and really turned negative on him, while praising Sen. Warnock. They chose a side.
The President Is Mad At Saudi Arabia
The President has made clear he is angry at Saudi Arabia for cutting oil production and not supporting his request for a month delay to get past the election.
Now let’s examine that and you decide if you would support increased oil production if you were the Saudi’s.
The President has promised to move the world off oil — the one thing Saudi Arabia runs its economy on.
Would you support someone promising to put you out of business?
The President wants them to increase oil production to lower the cost of a barrel of oil.
If oil is your business do you want to flood the market and lower the price?
Do you want to make less or more profit?
If the person asking has called you and your country a “pariah” and promised to make you pay, would you jump to help them?
If you want help, you need friends. This President did not make a friend in Saudi Arabia.
Homeland Secretary Mayorkas
Two senators have told Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to prepare to face impeachment on his handling of the border if Republicans win the senate.
We’ll make this simple, he deserves impeachment for lying about the border being secure, and what he did to the agents accusing them of “whipping” crossers, suspending the agents and waiting a year to announce they did nothing wrong. He made the charges even after he knew they weren’t true.
No one deserves a boss like that, and we don’t deserve a Homeland Secretary like that.