Our Goal Is Not To Flood Your Mailbox
As the dog days of August continue and Washington politicians are on leave, vacationing and back home campaigning, our goal to not clutter your mailbox with meaningless messages. So if you don’t hear from us for a few days, it’s not because we’re lazy, just want to be sure we communicate only when necessary.
In fact, if you are paying any kind of attention to the news, you know it is more about a former President than the current one, or anyone in office. Between the Mar-a-Lago search, the Jan. 6th committee, and the candidates that Trump is backing, you would think he was still in office watching the daily news.
Thus, we’ll be judicious in our messaging to keep your mailboxes as clean as possible.
By the way, if you think all these stories about the ex-President hitting a peak right before the mid terms is just a coincidence, you can be fooled all the time.
While We Have Your Attention
It is interesting watching the polls as Democrats closed the gap mightily in August. What all the pollsters were writing and saying about a red wave in November has, according to them, become a toss up.
Readers of this blog know that since the 2020 election we have talked of the election landscape in 2022 that favored Democratic senate candidates.
The reasons:
First, the Republicans had more seats up for election. 21-14.
Second, the Democratic seats up were in mostly safe blue states.
Third, five Republicans were retiring and only one Democrat.
Thus, the landscape for a senate changeover in majority control was lessened from the outset.
Then came the primary endorsements of former President Trump, who holds sway in the party.
He endorsed only those who held his belief that the 2020 election was stolen from him. That doesn’t fly in the general election and has put candidates in states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania at a disadvantage.
The Democrats, for their part, are unified behind their candidates and out-raised the Republicans by a substantial amount.
As of this writing they are clearly favored to maintain the senate.
On the house side, you hear the gap has narrowed, and in some polls they say the Democrats are now ahead.
We agree the gap has narrowed, but believe the House will flip. It may not be by the numbers some dreamed of, but it will change leadership.
One more thing to watch.
Maybe, just maybe, the Democrats peaked too soon here in late August and you will see a reemergence of the gap over the final few months.
We think you will see a leveling off beginning now. Keep an eye on the polls.
Lastly, here’s your first read on 2024. The senate will flip.
Why?
The Dems will have 23 seats up and the Republicans 10. It’s all in the numbers.