Issues and Hearings Impacting 2022
The political landscape this month has shifted dramatically and the pundits will have to catch up. I am going to take a few minutes to look at the issues and provide some thoughts.
Let’s start with the January 6th hearing.
It hasn’t produced the full impact the Democrats hoped, which was to narrow the gap in the house and senate races. It has, though, damaged Donald Trump, even down to some of his core support and an alternative to his candidacy in 2024 is real.
In fact, a poll released this week in New Hampshire, home of primary election one, Gov. DeSantis now runs even with the former President. I am betting that is not an outlier and Trump’s actions now leave him vulnerable, even in a Republican primary. A force, because some will follow him anywhere, but weakened for sure.
If that is the outcome (and was the predicted outcome here before the hearings began), the Democrats will have accomplished a goal, but at a price.
Trump was the one Republican they best defeat if an election were held today.
Then along came the gun issue. Another strong Democratic issue.
I thought Mitch McConnell played it smart to get through legislation to lessen the impact. That bill passed yesterday with 15 Republicans (including McConnell) voting for it.
However, the Supreme Court will now be a major issue in every Senate race, as they chose the same day to strike down a 100 year old N.Y. law that disallowed carrying a legal and registered gun.
The noise on this one through the election will have the gun law back and center stage.
Advantage Democrats.
The abortion decision is coming down. You’ve seen the noise on that one even before it does. It will be front and center for November.
Advantage Democrats.
Then we have the economy, inflation, oil production and costs, food prices, rising interest rates for home and car buying, border control and a likely downturn.
Advantage Republicans.
Where Does It Leave Us For 2022?
As we get ready to cross into July and four months from the mid terms, here’s what I see.
That red wave everyone is talking about will happen in the House. When the dust settles Republicans will win the House and control the committees and speakership.
It won’t be that close.
In the Senate, I see Democrats holding their advantage. Wait, you say, how can that be with a red wave in the house? Here’s why:
Republicans have 21 seats they currently hold up for election.
18 of those seats I see them holding with no issue.
Thus, three are in question: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin.
Democrats have 14 up for election. So 7 less.
10 of those 14 are safe for them.
The four in question: Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, Nevada.
Control of the senate will come down to these seven.
Republicans should win Ohio, though Dem. Ryan will make it close. Democrats should win NH.
That leaves five to decide the senate.
This is where Donald Trump comes back into the picture.
In Wisconsin, I think Sen. Johnson is in trouble. His staff was caught handing to VP Pence alternate delegates to support Trump’s false claims of cheating in the state. A recent poll has him down to 37%.
In Penn. it is a tossup, but currently the Democrat Fetterman is running five points ahead of Dr. Oz.
Trump put Oz over the top in the primary by less than 1,000 votes. But this is a general election now, and both Dr. Oz and Trump’s choice for Governor are behind.
If Republicans lose those two they are in trouble.
In Georgia, Trump’s hand picked candidate, Hershel Walker, was just caught in a scandal (in addition to the wife beating charges). He has been outspoken on absentee fathers. It was working, until we found out he has at least two children out of wedlock that he has not been involved with.
Georgia is a state where Gov Kemp, who stood up to Trump, is going to win against Stacey Abrams, and Trump’s handpicked Senate candidate will lose, giving the senate to Schumer and the Democrats again.
In Arizona, which was another real Republican pick up opportunity, the post election efforts of Trump have the party in turmoil. He is supporting a candidate who backed his claims of a stolen state election. Might be good in the primary, but not in the general election. Senator Kelly is now the favorite to win again, despite supporting the Biden/Harris agenda.
Thus, as of this writing and point in time, the Democrats can hold and Republicans lose a seat or two.
Now it was always a landscape that favored Democrats because of less seats up and the blue nature of most. Conditions in the market presented a real opportunity for Republicans to gain that single seat for Senate control, but replaying 2020 may well cost them.
Final Thoughts This Week
“I’m doing all I can,” says the President. Then, when the CEO’s of the oil companies that he is berating day in and day out show up in Washington, he doesn’t walk into the meeting and tell them why he is mad and what he wants? He cowers down?
Yet, at the same time he shows up at a meeting of wind mill companies?
You can’t be serious.
And if you think he’s serious about lowering your gas and oil costs, you are one of those who like to be fooled all the time.
You have to say this with a can you believe it tone. California a week from today is planning to raise its gas tax by 5.6% to a total of .59 cents per gallon. With already the highest costs in the nation they are adding on additional.
Want more? As Democrats consider alternatives in 2024 if Biden doesn’t run the number one Governor choice is Newsom. After all doesn’t all of America want to be like California?