Today We Get…

Today We Get The Inflation News

Even before we knew the numbers the White House was preparing us for an “extraordinarily elevated” inflation number. In fact, on Monday Press Secretary Psaki was already blaming the increase on Putin’s war against Ukraine:
“Because of the actions we’ve taken to address the Putin price hike, we are in a better place than we were last month. But we expect March CPI headline inflation to be extraordinarily elevated, due to Putin’s price hike.”

All of it was preparation for a 40 year high of inflation and they needed a place/person to blame. Putin is the new Trump for now. In reality, it’s their policies that began this inflation, and they are still insisting spending more on BBB would be good. They can’t be serious.

Since Putin attacked The Ukraine only seven weeks ago it will be hard to spin the annual numbers as Putin’s inflation. But they will try, and guess what?
Some people will believe it because as you know, you can fool some of the people all the time.

Now Axios began the hype for how good things are with this write up before the numbers were released:
Behold, the jobs turnaround of the century — maybe longer. 
– Two years ago, 6.1 million people filed for jobless benefits in a single week — the most ever.
– In the first week of April, that number was 166,000 — the second-lowest in the 55 years.
– Behind the numbers: Employers have gone from discharging their workers on a scale without precedent at the start of the pandemic — to holding onto them for dear life, as they face labor shortages.
– Workers who lose jobs are finding new ones rapidly.
– The record-holder for lowest weekly claims remains the week ending Nov. 30, 1968, with 162,000 new claims.
– The labor force is about twice as large as it was in the late 1960s, making the current low claims numbers that much more impressive.
The unemployment rate was 3.6% in March. That is lower than in only two months in the last 50 years.


What’s missing from their spin are a few facts we know:
Sure we’re creating jobs. 6.1 million people were told to stay home because of Covid. They are simply going back to work. That’s not a new job you created.
In fact, the number in the labor force is smaller than it was before the pandemic. Wouldn’t you expect it to be larger?
The percent of Americans working is still below the per cent prior to the pandemic.
If this were the greatest economy ever wouldn’t more people be working than ever before?
So, despite the spin:
The number of people working is less than before.
The percent of Americans working is below the pre pandemic level.
Unemployment is down, because we have 11 million jobs that people are not taking – and they can’t say they are looking for a job.

Now, what’s up is:
Inflation and the cost of living for citizens in the store, at the pump and in anything they do.
The debt, because of spending, which Is passing the bill to our children and future generations.
Interest rates if you take a loan for a car or home.
Certainly not the stock market, which has taken a hit all year.

In the end:
If you think this is a good economy and believe the hype, well you must be a loyal Democrat, because I see a recession coming.
I saw an interview with Kevin Hassett, the former chairperson of the economic counsel, and he was bemoaning inflation and where the economy was headed.
He talked of fossil fuels and the war this administration has had with it. Then he ended with this line:
“The war against Fossil Fuels is the only one Joe Biden has won.”
Ouch.

Speaking Of Recession

Here are a few comments from experts on recession. Larry Summers, of course, is a prominent Democrat.
Larry Summers, former Treasury secretary and Harvard professor, told Bloomberg: 
“Recession in the next couple of years is clearly more likely than not. … We have never had a moment in the United States when inflation was above 4 (percent) and unemployment was below 4 (percent) and we didn’t have a recession within the next two years.
He repeated that same message Sunday on Meet The Press.
He added, the Fed will have to be both skillful and “lucky” to avoid a recession.  

Gary Pzegeo, the head of fixed income at CIBC’s U.S. private wealth division, said inflation can often lead to wealth destruction, especially when rising consumer prices outpace wage growth. 
“It acts as a tax. So, give it a little bit of time in the economy, and it’ll eat away at your wealth and set the stage for a recessionWe no longer see the Fed achieving a soft landing,” 

Deutsche Bank economists led by Matthew Luzzetti said in an analyst note:
“Instead, we anticipate that a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy will push the economy into a recession.”  The bank was the first major Wall Street firm to predict a U.S. downturn.

Handling Covid, Who Did It Best?

Remember all the noise about how bad the red states were on handling the pandemic and how good the blue, especially the big ones were doing? Here’s a WSJ chart on who did it best.
Hint: If you’re looking for New York, New Jersey and California, start from the bottom. Florida and South Dakota that you heard so much negative about – you can start at the top.

For a closer view, it is featured in the prestigious National Bureau of Economic Research website.

Why Hunter Has A Problem

President Biden’s younger sister wrote a book and in promoting it explained why Hunter has an issue. This from the Washington Times today:
President Biden’s‘s younger sister Valerie Biden Owens is blaming supporters of former President Donald Trump for the scrutiny that her nephew, Hunter Biden, is receiving related to contents from his laptop and a federal investigation into his taxes and foreign business deals.
Mrs. Owens said she does not think the younger Biden brought upon himself the various scandals that have engulfed the family. Instead, in an interview with USA Today on Sunday, she blamed conservatives for lobbing unfair personal attacks at him.

“Trump and his right-wing followers have continued to do whatever they can to discredit the family and therefore to bring Joe down,” she said.

There you have it. Now we know why Hunter became Hunter. And if you believe that, well you know:
You can fool some of the people all the time.

Stay Tuned In. The Closer We Get To The Mid Terms The More Noise There Will Be.

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