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A Momentum Switch Last Week
Barring a Russian invasion or other world event you will see some numbers begin to move this week in favor of President Biden and the Democrats. Why? Three reasons:
1. The President had a positive week. His visit to NY and support of the police was covered very favorably by the MSM. The jobs numbers on Friday were so positive. It looks like the economy can emerge in good shape.
2. The Democrats seem to have won the gerrymandering battle. The new lines in NY alone point to four New Democrat Congressional members. The lines may be crazy, but the Dem led legislation voted it in.
On the other side, when Republicans had the chance in states they control they seemed more intent on shoring up seats than creating opportunity.
3. The Republicans had a horrible weak. They shot themselves with the censure of Kinzinger and Cheney. They couldn’t leave well enough alone, instead they do a vote to bring the news to the forefront and end up on the wrong side of the issue.
Then former President Trump attacks his VP once again for not over throwing the election. Pence hits back – forcibly – at a conservative conference and clears the air. The party ends up arguing about 2020 and a President insisting he didn’t lose when he can’t prove a single fraud. The path to victory is not in looking back.
In fact, the battle between President Trump refusing to accept the election and blaming his VP for not declaring him the winner is going to stretch on. Trump is going to go out with that and motivate his base. As he does that, as we’ve said so often, he will motivate his base, but he will motivate the opposition and turn the independents. This is a classic case of winning a battle (Primary) and losing the war (election).
The answer is for the Republicans to move on from the former President. The best solution for the party is Trump announcing he is not running but supporting change because the country is heading in the wrong direction and he wants to see change and that he (personally) not be the issue. The problem is he can’t do that, because his ego is too big.
So the end result is watch the polls this week and I am guessing you will see President Biden’s numbers creep up. How far? If he was at 39-40%, I am guessing he gains 3-4 points. That’s a lot you say? Well, remember this, the coverage he gets will be very positive. Coverage matters.
The off shoot of that is the November elections will look a little different too. Watch the words and excitement from both sides to see what they are feeling. I think you’ll see it.
Finally, momentum in politics is as long as tomorrow’s problem. So while someone might feel good today it’s nine months to the mid terms.
Some Other Interesting Events This Weekend
Wasn’t it interesting how on Face The Nation yesterday Senators Manchin (D) and Murkowski (R) endorsed each other for reelection? Murkowski is up this November and running against a Trump endorsed opponent. Manchin is up in 2024.
And by the way, the Democrats still have their own issues as progressives turn up the volume and talk about challenging Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (W.Va.) in future Democratic primaries. That is dangerous for them. If they try and take the party far left that is doom for them.
Do you wonder why politicians keep hurting themselves with seemingly simple things? The latest is Stacey Abrams in Georgia. There she is front and center sitting with young students in a classroom. Every student is masked and she is not. Why would she do that? I am continually amazed at the politicians who tell you and me what to do, while they do the opposite.
The Georgia Governor’s race is a perfect example of what we spoke about today. Current Governor Kemp is 7 points ahead of Abrams in the latest polls. His problem is that former President Trump is backing David Perdue (who lost his senate seat) in a primary against him. Why? Kemp said the state found no cheating in 2020 and asked Trump and team for the evidence, adding they would “gladly” investigate and expose. None came. Now we have an incumbent winning the polls against Abrams and he is being challenged with ads on the air saying he wouldn’t back Trump. A perfect way to win a primary and lose a general election. All the while Abrams stumbles and looks beatable.
Finally today, over the weekend we passed 900,000 deaths in the U.S. attributed to Covid. See move coverage? Remember the daily number reports under the last President? Why is that?
And why is it the President, Speaker of The House and Majority Leader have no interest investigating fully where the Covid began? Don’t we deserve to know that?