let’s do some post analysis
Some will say that it is too soon to do post analysis, but I disagree. The drama for me ended when the AP and FoxNews called Arizona for VP Biden. I told those around me I see no way to 270 for President Trump and, in fact, see Joe Biden exceeding 300 electoral votes when all this is over.
So why and now what?
First off, the Democrats can still control the White House, House and Senate. I know you’re hearing that Republicans won the senate, but that’s false. They will end up with 50 seats, while the Democrats will have 48. Where’s the other two? In a Georgia run off the first week of January.
The money, the campaigning and the activity here will be fierce. Because of the Covid there will be mail balloting again. If anyone says either seat is a lock for either side, I direct them to view the Georgia results this week.
Now Republicans gained House seats. Amazingly they are still counting ballots and we don’t know how many. Six so far they say. I think in the end they will double that, but still far short of House control. The Democrats own the House and will pick the leader and control the agenda.
Buckle up for the January run off in Georgia, because we may yet see the leftist agenda have no political party constraints.
Why did we see what we did this week?
There will be plenty of time for analysis, so I will give a topline here:
First, the mailing of ballots changed the election turnout. The Democrats saw the opportunity and executed behind it. The President misplayed this.
Consider this, only 30% of his voters said they were “enthusiastic Biden voters.” Would they have flocked to the polls and waited in line to vote?
Second, Donald Trump motivated a base and turned off a lot of people. He was his best advocate and worst enemy. His tweets and words hurt him constantly. More on this later.
Third, the Coronavirus was poorly managed by the President and brilliantly done by VP Biden and staff. In the end there is nothing that Biden would have done or will do differently than the President, outside wearing a mask more. Yet he was able to present the President as managing it poorly.
The President, with his ego, always tried to downplay the virus as opposed to managing it.
Fourth, the President’s performance in debate number one was instrumental. It may have cost him the election. Then impulsively cancelling debate number two, even if virtual, was just a bad move. All the proof you need is debate three.
The media played a large part. They despised the President and went after him for four years. On the other hand they allowed VP Biden to run a low energy campaign from his house as if he were doing much more.
Remember 92% negative coverage has to have an impact. It was unwarranted.
Next
Get ready for the internal Democrat war. The progressive left wing against the moderates who have been quiet until now. That’s about to change.
The Republican party will have its own war. It will be the Trumpers against the never Trumpers. The Hogans, Romneys and Snyders are going to find it hard to reenter the party as if nothing happened.