its time to vote
In a few hours the campaign noise will end and the people in Dixville Notch, N.H. will cast the first in nation votes. We will be on our way to knowing what was right:
Were the professional pollsters who never deviated from showing a clear Joe Biden win right? In fact, today one of the final polls released by the the WSJ and NBC said he is ahead by double digits.
These organizations have risked their credibility after the 2016 debacle and need to be right this time. They said they adjusted and have it right.
On the other side we saw the enthusiasm and devotion to rally with the President at all hours and in any condition. You saw car and boat caravans formed out of no where. You can’t buy that, or deny what you saw.
So what’s right? Is it the pollsters or your eyes?
Maybe its both.
Maybe, just maybe there is unquestioned enthusiasm for the President and the willingness of his supporters to pay any price to support him.
Maybe too, there are a majority tired of the the rhetoric and just want to vote him out. They are not Joe Biden enthusiasts, just anti President Trumpers.
The question is which one is more. The pollsters say the later. We’ll see.
here’s what to watch
The early signs will be there as polls close and where Real Clear Politics is today:
Ohio (T +0.2), Florida (B +1.0), North Carolina (T +0.6), Georgia (B +0.4).
These four close early and are must wins for Donald Trump. RCP says they are all too close to call, within a point of difference. Watch for a trend.
Then the next hour comes a few more must wins for Trump:
Iowa (T+1.4) and Texas (T+1.2)
Now, if he holds all six of those there is one more closing later he needs to hold:
If he does all that he has 258 electoral votes and the attention turns to the rust belt, where the pressure is then on Joe Biden to hold ground. Let’s look at those states and where RCP says they stand.
Keep in mind that PA (20) and Michigan (16), if lost to Trump, would mean the election.
PA (B+4.3), Michigan (B+5.1)
These states, WI (B+6.1) ten electoral votes, MN. (B+4.3) ten electoral votes, and Nevada (B+3.3) six electoral votes, do not have enough electoral votes alone to swing the election.
There you have it.
The President wins all those states that RCP has as toss ups, he still needs twelve electoral votes somewhere. He loses Arizona and he needs 22.
So the road for VP Biden is much easier.
the early voting advantage
Conventional wisdom is clear that Joe Biden holds large leads among those who have voted early .
President Trump holds a big lead among those who say they will vote tomorrow.
I repeat again, that the strategy to get people to vote early may well prove to be the difference in this election. If this were a simple go to the polls on election day vote, I think the President wins. The make it easy early vote is clearly driving participation for Biden.
Plus, wait until tomorrow and voters go to the polls and see how long the lines are. There will be six foot spacing and lines will stretch a long long way. If one person decides not to vote, is ill, or gets tied up, who loses that vote? When you have options and you limit your voters to one day, one way, you can only lose. It was a poor choice by the Republicans.
now this being 2020
In this year of the unexpected, how surprised would you be to see a 269-269 tie in the electoral vote?
Can it happen? It can in lots of scenarios. Here’s a few:
I said in the above the President holds ground and has 258 electoral votes. Okay, what if he wins Minnesota or Wisconsin then? They are each 10 electoral votes. That gives him 268.
Remember now, that Nebraska and Maine divide their votes by congressional district. If he and Biden spilt those two, with the above scenario, we have a 269 -269 tie.
Want another way?
Arizona goes to Biden and Pennsylvania goes to Trump. That’s 267 for the President and he wins the two single congressional districts. Tie.
Possible? Hey it’s 2020.
closing out then
In our final blog before the election, what so we see?
Hard to believe the pollsters are so off again. I see a closer race than they predict, but the President (as any Republican does) has to pull off too many inside straights to get over the top.
The senate will swing with this too. It could be 50-50 after it’s over. In that case the VP of the winning party will cast the deciding vote.
The House will not change at all. In fact there is as good a chance the Democrats can increase their numbers as lose seats.
Crazy? That’s why people vote and they count the numbers. Predictions and pollsters only forecast, the people speak.