a review of the electoral map as promised
The road to victory for VP Biden (as it is with any Democrat) is much easier.
He starts with California, NY, Illinois, Massachusetts, fourteen other states and Wash. D.C as locks. That’s 217 electoral votes.
On the other side, the President starts with 20 states, but only 125 electoral votes.
That leaves twelve states that the polls say might be up in the air that will put one of them over the top. They are:
Nevada, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Now, Nevada and Minnesota are clearly blue states. The last time Minn. voted Republican was in 1972! Nevada has gone steadily Democratic the last three.
Give them to Biden. That moves him to 20 states and 233 electoral votes.
So, for the President to win he must pull off this accomplishment:
Win Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.
Those four (all close today, and polls say Biden leads in the latter three) are 98 electoral votes.
If Trump wins them he moves to 24 states and 223 electoral votes.
That makes it 233 – 223 for VP Biden, leaving these states to decide it:
Pennsylvania 20 votes, Ohio 18 votes, Michigan 16, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10 and Iowa 6 votes.
Today my gut is the President wins Ohio and probably Arizona and Iowa. Total electoral votes 35, making his possible total 258.
VP Biden wins PA, Michigan and Wisconsin, totaling 46 electoral votes bringing his total to 279.
Thus, with a week to go the President has to win:
Texas, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Iowa to be viable.
Pulling that off he needs Michigan or Pennsylvania to get over the top.
VP Biden can stop him by winning any one.
One week to go.