Kick Off – Post Convention

Where are we post conventions?

Three polls showed the President picking up 2-4 points post the convention. One (ABC) showed no change. Rasmussen, as an example, has the race 46-45 Biden, (down from 48-44 a week ago).
So pick your poll.

But as we’ve been saying and printing here, follow the betting odds. They moved steadily each week, and as of this morning they are 51-49 in favor of VP Biden. That’s down ten points in the last month and says we have a horserace.

Want further proof? Look at how the Biden and Harris team have already changed strategy. They are going on the road, and yesterday put out a statement condemning the killing in Portland. It was only a week ago that Biden was telling David Muir he was going to stay in the basement.

like everything else

Like everything else with this, election who had more viewers for their convention is a controversy.
The Biden camp will quote the Nielsen Media numbers. They said that 21.7 watched Biden’s DNC speech and 19.9 watched the President’s.
The Republican Party has pushed back against the TV numbers, saying it doesn’t factor in online views — and if it did, the president’s convention blew the Democrats’ away. The GOP convention had 147.9 million views on both digital and TV, which was 25 million more than the Democratic convention.

So like the polls, choose your viewer ratings numbers.

what’s the issue

From the conventions and the days that followed its clear the major issue for the Democrats will be the Coronavirus and the President’s handling of it.
For the Republicans it will be law and order.
Both are fraught with danger.
There are three things with the Coronavirus. First the argument that Trump failed will be met with that is China’s fault and not Trump.
Then there are the names that the President was called for his early moves. Hard to say now that you would have done better, if back then you said the President closed China and then the European borders too soon.
Third is the push to find solutions. You know the President and his team will move every obstacle possible to get this done. There are two that could impact public thinking.
The first is a saliva-based test that may replace the uncomfortable nose swab that Abbott Labs says is close to ready. That will eliminate testing issues if it works.
The second is a vaccine. The push to get one approved by the election is big.
If both those happen, that will make the issue less potent for the Democrats and could work against them.

Now law and order also has its perils. The Democrats will try and plant the disorder on the President and his administration. The President with his penchant for making comments and re-tweeting something controversial can get himself cornered easily. Biden and team are already moving off their non stance and starting to talk the issue. They will no doubt be more disciplined.

post scripts

Hillary just keeps on keeping on. This weekend she was criticizing the Presidents use of the White House for his acceptance speech.
Now this from the family (Hillary and Bill) who after leaving the White House had to pay the government $28,000 for furniture they took. Then they paid $86,000 for other goods they thought were gifts which were not.
Now did you ever hear of that with any other departing President? Of course not.

Six Democratic Mayors (and one former Independent mayor) have endorsed President Trump for reelection after claiming that Joe Biden hasn’t done anything to help working class people.
‘We have watched as our constituents’ jobs left not only the Iron Range, but our country. By putting tariffs on our products and supporting bad trade deals, politicians like Joe Biden did nothing to help the working class.’
The mayors said that they had ‘lost thousands of jobs’ in the region, while ‘generations of young people have left the Iron Range in order to provide for their families with good paying jobs elsewhere.’
Additionally, they noted: ‘Today, we don’t recognize the Democratic Party. It has been moved so far to the left it can no longer claim to be advocates of the working class. The hard-working Minnesotans that built their lives and supported their families here on the Range have been abandoned by radical Democrats. We didn’t choose to leave the Democratic Party, the party left us.’

Finally tomorrow is the Massachusetts Primary Day. It will be a test of the Kennedy magic in the state as Congressman Joe Kennedy is challenging long time incumbent Senator Joe Markey. This for the seat held by President Kennedy, then Teddy. Polls say the magic ride ends tomorrow and Markey wins. Lets see.

have a great week.

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