We haven’t talked politics in a while. let’s take a look at how things are shapiNg up.
All the recent polls show VP Biden ahead by double digits. Our assessment is he is ahead, not quite that much, but clearly ahead. The problem for him is the election is four plus months away, and the question is are people going to feel comfortable pulling his lever in these challenging times. Today its easy to say Biden and not Trump.
Biden’s vote currently seems to be more an anti Trump one rather than for him.
The last two months have been a disaster for the President. The virus itself, and then his daily CoronaVirus press conferences dented him. His hesitation on the current unrest added on top and he sank. In two or three weeks I think you will see the 14 point polls close and show him down 6 or 7 points.
Now the campaign has not begun, and it will be a nasty one. Here are the keys:
Can Joe Biden rise to the occasion and show he can do the job? He has to convince people he is up to the job for them to pull the lever.
He has to continue motivating the far left of his party without driving the center away. Can higher taxes, open borders sanctuary cities and supreme court promises fly?
On the other side can the President straighten out his campaign team so they can communicate the accomplishments of his years in office? Right now they appear very disorganized. Can they keep him quieter with his words and tweets? Can they keep his ego in check?
Both campaigns face big challenges with their candidates. Then add:
How do the conventions play out? Biden has cancelled the big gathering and will do a virtual one. (Though he will be Wisconsin.)
The President is all in for a big gathering. With the reports of an outbreak with the secret service after Saturday’s Tulsa rally, this could backfire.
Imagine the news if after the President’s convention the attendees have an outbreak. Imagine what he says of the Democrats cancelling theirs if no outbreak occurs.
The speeches at the convention. Biden will have a script and stick to it. He hasn’t exactly delivered stirring ones so far.
How much does the President deviate, and what does he say? Always a risk.
The debates. I think the Republicans are betting it all on these three events. I have long believed you can prepare someone for a three hour debate. Add they are raising expectations so high that if VP Biden stands on his own two feet he may win. I think the Republicans have done a horrible job of having people think VP Biden can’t stand on the stage for two hours and answer a question. Trump may win the debate, but if people walk away saying that Biden is fine, then he wins.
Then finally, turnout. Do the “I hate the President” voters turn out greater than “I love the President.” Today the answer is yes. In four months we’ll see.
|The same NYT poll yesterday that had Biden up had more bad news for the Republicans today. Their Senate majority is clearly in danger. To retake Senate control, Democrats would need to win five of the competitive races. The Times polled three of those races in Arizona, Michigan and North Carolina. The Democratic candidate is leading in all three. |
As for the House, right now the Democrats’ odds of holding it are high.
By the way, the Times/Siena poll released had these key state battle results:
Wisconsin: BIDEN 49, TRUMP 38
BIDEN isn’t only leading in Wisconsin.
MICHIGAN: BIDEN 47, TRUMP 36
PENNSYLVANIA: BIDEN 50, TRUMP 40
FLORIDA: BIDEN 47, TRUMP 41
ARIZONA: BIDEN 48, TRUMP 41
N.C.: BIDEN 49, TRUMP 40.
So lot’s of work for the President and his party to do.
One piece of good news for the president
The Senate confirmed the President’s 200th federal judge Wednesday, helping to fulfill one of his top campaign promises of remaking the federal bench with a conservative bent. Judge Cory T. Wilson of Mississippi cleared the chamber with a 52-48 vote and will now sit on the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
pause To Remember
Take a moment today to remember that 70 years ago today, June 25, 1950, the Korean War began. On this day 75,000 soldiers with the North Korean People’s Army advanced across the 38th parallel.
Today the area remains unsettled, and that war never officially ended.