Let’s put into perspective what is happening to the Democratic Party right now. They are going through their Tea Party moment.
For those needing a reminder, or too young, the Tea Party was a revolt begun in 2008 against the Republican Party.
The TEA stands for Taxed Enough Already.
The party had long stood for less taxes and the support of some leaders for higher rates led to this movement. It divided the party and led to upheaval and losses.
The Democratic Party is going through this before our eyes. The realization that their acceptance and support of far left socialists was leading them to a nomination of Senator Sanders, and the likely outcome of that, led to incredible action yesterday.
They realized they had to stop Senator Sanders and his movement now or the consequences in November could be catastrophic.
You saw the result.
Mayor Buttigieg quits the race and flies to Texas to endorse VP Biden. Shortly after, Senator Klobuchar quits the race and flies to Texas to endorse Biden.
Then a short while later here comes Congressman Beto O’Rourke out of the woodwork to endorse Biden in the state.
All through the day established party officials current and past (like Harry Reid) came out for Biden.
The drive and goal is to stop Senator Sanders now and turn states in today’s Super Tuesday vote. Texas was ground zero.
The Democratic Party, much like the Republicans did with the Tea Party Group, had allowed the far left movement to foster and grow. Now they are about to face the music and they are trying to stop it.
What are the consequences if they don’t? Think of other movements like the Republicans going hard right with Barry Goldwater in 1964; or the Democrats going far left with George McGovern in 1972. In that short span of 8 years both parties suffered historic losses at the polls.
can they stop bernie?
Here’s the challenge today – Super Tuesday.
– 1,357 delegates are at stake in 11 states. There are a total of 3,980 delegates. So, over one third are on the ballot today. It takes 1,991 to win the nomination.
– California (415) and Texas (228) are almost half the days total.
– Senator Sanders is going to win California. But the others dropping out will narrow the margin allowing Biden to pick up his share of delegates.
Senator Warren staying in the race is hurting Sanders here. As Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters break for Biden, hers would have gone to Sanders.
– Texas where you saw all the action yesterday can be turned because of it. Polls showed Sanders up by six per cent or so. Buttigieg and Klobuchar were running at about a combined 11. They can make a difference here and change the days messaging.
This is also a state that Mike Bloomberg could be a factor. He spent a fortune here and was doing well. How far he falls after the debates and movement to Biden will be key.
I see Senator Sanders winning tonight in California, Colorado, Maine, Utah, and Vermont.
I see Biden winning Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina and Tennessee.
That leaves two states, Texas and Massachusetts. I think Biden could pull the upset in Texas after yesterday which will give him validity and make the night a divide.
Massachusetts is interesting because it’s Warren’s home state. She and Bernie are going to be close there. An interesting watch.
At the end of the night Bernie will win the most delegates. The margin between him and Biden will be key. If Biden wins Texas, figure this is going to a divided convention and divided party. If Sanders wins Texas and Massachusetts he may be unstoppable.
One last factor is what Bloomberg, after $700 million already spent comes out with. Before the debates he had a real chance to win three or four states today. He won’t win any now. If his supporters leave him they will go to Biden overwhelmingly.
A fascinating night ahead. Stay tuned and enjoy it.