onto super tuesday we go
South Carolina really shook it up and only three viable candidates remain standing (as we noted Friday). It’s a battle of the B’s. Bernie, Biden and Bloomberg.
VP Biden changed the dynamics of the race with his large win. Remember after the debate it was clear that Tom Steyer was done. He had appealed to the minority vote by talking “reparations”. He lost voters with his disastrous performance and they went to Biden.
The VP is alive and was all over the Sunday News shows to try and gain momentum.
It was a bad night and a bad Sunday for Senator Sanders. He lost S.C. by far more than he dreamed he would. Then Steyer and Buttigieg left the race. Their supporters will gravitate to Biden and that hurts Sanders.
As for Mayor Bloomberg it is all riding on Super Tuesday. He has spent close to a billion dollars and is on the ballot for the first time. He had himself set up so well before he entered the two debates. His performance in those deflated his balloon, and I don’t think he wins anywhere tomorrow.
Where do his voters go?
To Joe Biden too. That would consolidate the Democratic “moderate lane” and define the race into the convention.
Thus, I see this as coming down to Sanders and Biden now.
Amy Kloubuchar should win Minnesota tomorrow and then leave the race. That leaves only Senator Warren who it appears wants to amass as many delegates as possible and get to the convention positioned to broker her support. I don’t think that’s realistic.
She can’t stay in and be embarrassed by the diminishing vote totals. Especially if she loses her home state of Massachusetts tomorrow. She and Bernie are very close in the polls there and the undecided may break for Sanders recognizing the Biden momentum.
Now what happens tomorrow?
Sanders looks solid in California (415 delegates) the largest prize.
He looked like the favorite in Texas (228) too, but the narrowed race (with the dropouts) gives VP Biden an outside shot to win here. If Biden pulls this off and Sanders wins California then we have a brokered convention ahead in Milwaukee.
Other states to watch tomorrow: North Carolina (110), Virginia (99), Massachusetts (91), Minnesota (75), Colorado (67), Tennessee (64), Alabama (52), Oklahoma (37), Arkansas (31) Utah (29), Maine (24) and Vermont (16)
You can see what’s at stake and the only variable is Mike Bloomberg’s name on the ballot for the first time, otherwise it’s Biden and Sanders.
So watch how big Sanders wins California. Who wins Texas. If Klobuchar and Warren can win their home states. If NC, Va. and Ala. hold the south strong for Biden.
The three main questions to are:
Does the consolidated field cause Bernie victories?
Does the Biden win in S.C. carry momentum two days later?
Did Mike Bloomberg blow a billion dollars by entering two debates in states he was not on the ballot?
One thing to note tomorrow night as you watch the returns.
Pay close attention tomorrow night in the delegate gap between Sanders and Biden. Sanders is hoping for a wide gap of 150 or more. Biden would love to keep it under 100.
Post Super Tuesday, Joe Biden believes he has the edge in upcoming primaries in Florida and Georgia. That is another reason why the consolidated field is so important to him tomorrow.
Finally on the Presidential race consider this. Of the male candidates left in the race the President at age 73 is the youngest one!
one more election today
|There is a vote in Isreal today, actually the third in a year, as no party has been able to form a government. The late polls say that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has inched ahead.|
We’re not experts on the race but we it find it more likely to end inconclusively again. Especially with Netanyahu under indictment. We don’t see how he gains votes in the current situation and when first announced thought he would lose.
Have a great day.