In A Nutshell…



The current state of argument between the President, Attorney General and Democrats in congress is the story of this presidency.

The President comes off a high. He wins acquittal, his numbers go up to 50% for the first time. He is on a roll with the economy and an election nine months away. So what does he do? He tweets himself into a mess.

Consider this:

A majority of Americans say they are better off than they were three years ago, a factor that boosts any re-election bid.
In fact, the 61 percent “better off” rating is the highest percentage recorded during the re-election year of any incumbent president since Gallup first asked the question in its surveys in 1992.
In addition, 52 percent of respondents said it is easier for them to “go and buy things in the stores” than it was three years ago.
Add, sixty-two percent give the President a great deal or a fair amount of credit for improvement in the state of the economy.
Top it all off with the fact that 60 percent of independent voters said they are better off.

Put all that together and the President should be rolling — except he tweets himself into a corner.
This time it was with the Roger Stone case. All he had to do was stay out of it and let the Justice Department do its job.
He has the ultimate power to pardon if he wanted, but no, he got involved early and muddied the water.

AG Barr is a person we have long said we respect and is the adult in any room. Hearing him yesterday speak out on the tweets did two things:
1. Illustrate clearly how far over the line the President went.
2. Made all those too quick to quack Democrats calling for his “impeachment” (Barr) look like fools.

The adult in the room said that Stone had committed a crime and had been found guilty.
The adult in the room said the prosecutors asking for seven to nine years was way out of line.
As he was working to adjust the required recommendation to the judge, as the DOJ should, the President tweeted and the issue exploded.
Suddenly the President and AG were in a conspiracy.
Leading Democrats pounced and wanted the AG removed or impeached.
The judge got angry.
The country has to go through another negative news cycle.

A mess was created because the President tweeted and then answered follow up questions from the press. He gave his opponents and the press ammunition to attack and see another conspiracy. It was unnecessary and all he did was stop his growing momentum.

He continues to be his own best friend and worst enemy.

I understand why when you have 92% negative coverage in a positive economy and situation you want to get your message out. I believe future Presidents will use social media big time to communicate. I would, wouldn’t you? The difference is, as we said from the day he was elected, he needs a filter. Someone to read and stop messages that are instant reactions and create craters for him. Just imagine how much further ahead he would be if a Kellyanne Conway was reading a tweet before it hit the air. It’s that simple.

Finally on this Stone matter, he doesn’t deserve the time they wanted. He was found guilty and there is a price to pay, but not what they wanted. In addition there are now questions about the prejudice of the jury chair and others. I think we’ll see an attempt to challenge the whole verdict in court.

political news

Former VP Biden and Senator Warren are trying to hang on. Warren seems to be betting it all on Nevada, while Biden is all in on S.C. Both are on the ropes and know it.
Mike Bloomberg is getting a lot of coverage now, and you see the attacks building on him. The President is building him up and giving him credibility with his personal tweets back and forth.
I would think the administration would not want Bloomberg, but this week they helped him.
For their part the Bloomberg team seems focused on the Super Tuesday states where they have their best chance.
Arkansas where he is in first in the polls.
North Carolina where he was yesterday and is in third.
Texas and California where he is investing heavily.

Meanwhile Senator Sanders took his first national Democratic Primary poll lead.  Another blow to VP Biden.
The debate next week and the Nevada caucus on Saturday loom large.


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