Editor’s note: With apologies for the late delivery this Friday. We had technical issues this AM.
Heading into the weekend let’s take a look at the mid terms and possible ramifications.
The forecast we’ve shared for over a year still looks viable. The Republicans should hold the senate and even increase their number. In fact they better, because in 2020 there are 22 Republican seats up and only 12 Democrat. In that election there are (in today’s view) at least four Republicans facing a real risk and only one Democrat.
So how do the Republicans increase their number in the senate? They must hold two places they are in tight races. Nevada, where the state leans Democrat and the unions often deliver on election day. This one is a risk. The second is Arizona, which shockingly to us sees Martha McSally is in a dead heat for Flake’s seat. Today the Green Party candidate backed out and announced their support for the Democrat.
On the other side North Dakota looks like a pickup for Republicans. The other states offering opportunity are Missouri, which looks this close today and Indiana where the Democrat seems to have a slight edge. Add Florida and Montana (where the libertarian Senate candidate Rick Breckenridge said Thursday he was endorsing Republican), and Republicans have a chance for a pickup or two.
The other states where upsets can occur is Texas for the Democrats and New Jersey, Minnesota, West Virginia and Ohio for Republicans.
With the House every forecast says its Speaker Pelosi. We have projected a 5-7 seat majority for the Democrats. What can impact this?
Turnout. Right now turnout is big. Early voting is way up. Now this can be because people are fired up or because people are getting used to early voting. We think its both.
Remember the party out of the presidency votes higher traditionally. What is interesting this year is Republican voting early seems to be way up too, and in some states outdistancing the Democrats. Does this mean that Republicans who traditionaly vote on election day are changing, or is it an undetected voter drive? Watch that for the key to this election. If the vote is an angry pro administration people, we will all see a repeat of 2016, where the pollsters just missed it.
Pollster information. Are there people not telling the pollsters the truth? There may well be a hidden Republican vote that people just don’t want to identify out loud. This can be a per cent or two of the people and well make the difference in some tight races. Is there a quiet Trump vote like 2016? There could be.
One post analysis ahead of the election from us is this. The Republicans should have been running on their record. There entire focus should have been on the economy. Jobs, companies coming back, taxes cut, every aspect of the difference versus two years ago. They had a real record to run on. Why get down in the dirt with their opposition? Force the Democrats to say what they stand for. Do you know what that is, other than they are not Trump? Do people really want to reverse the tax cut? The one that reduced corporate tax, (yes it did), but that made us competitive to bring jobs back. Do they want to reverse that? Do they want to give back their individual tax cuts? Do they want to again start funding foreign countries at the rate we were? Do they think we were more respected in the world before? Do they think Hillary would have gotten N. Korea to where it is? Do they want to reverse our current Iran policy?
You get the idea. They had a record to run on, but instead this became a name calling election. Why?
Some Other Thoughts
The really nasty and now racial election in Georgia may not be decided this week. The libertarian candidate Ted Metz could prevent Republican Brian Kemp or Democrat Stacey Abrams from winning a majority of the vote next week and force a run-off in December.
Did you see that Republican ad released yesterday with the convicted police killer? The person featured was deported by President Clinton and re-entered the country. I know you saw MSM criticism of the ad, but did they tell you that?
Here’s a report from Politico today:
“Of the 43 Democratic candidates in districts that POLITICO rates ‘lean-Democrat,’ ‘likely-Democrat’ or ‘toss-up’ — the swath of GOP-held seats most likely to flip — 11 have said they would not back Pelosi for speaker. Of those 11, only four would confirm that they would vote against Pelosi on the House floor next year.”
That supports what we have been telling you. All those saying they will not support Pelosi will say they did not vote for her in Democratic conference, but will vote for her when it counts.
What a shame people are fooled so easily.
From the WSJ today:
It’s one area where vast changes are guaranteed if Democrats reclaim at least one chamber of Congress — the committees investigating President Trump’s Russia ties, finances and ethics questions will have a much different focus than they did under Republican control.