Two weeks and a day to the mid terms. We will stick with our consistent prediction of the past eighteen months. The Democrats win the house. We would guess that they pick up 30 seats to have a seven seat advantage.
In the senate the Republicans will hold and most likely pick up a seat or two. The key to the senate for them is to pick up two seats. If they get to 53 it is key to passing the President’s agenda. Here’s why:
Gone will be Flake, Corker, and of course John McCain. They, along with Murkowski and Collins, were the most likely to vote with the Democrats. If Republicans get to 53 seats they can lose a Collins and Murkowski and still have 51 votes.
The senate keys are two seats Republicans have now. Arizona and Nevada. They need to hold them. Recent polls show them with a slight advantage.
Then they need two pick ups. North Dakota is trending their way and looks like a pickup. The others with opportunity (in probable order) are Missouri, Florida, Indiana and Montana.
We’ll update this as the two weeks unfold, but today we see Dems by 7 in the house and Republicans up to 53 in the senate.
Polls:
Have you noticed that the President’s approval ratings have edged up recently? Yesterday the WSJ/NBC poll showed:
His job approval rating rose to 47%, the highest mark of his time in office, with 49% disapproving his performance. Last month, 44% approved and 52% disapproved.
The Rasmussen poll on Friday had him at 47% too.
Here’s a question on the President’s polling:
What would it be if the MSM, which is reporting 92% negative on him and the administration, were treating him as they did Obama?
Most people get their news off the MSM and the constant negative has to have a major impact on the administration perception.
The Five Per-Cent Cut:
The President made a move last week that any reader of this blog with business experience knows about. He asked all departments to prepare budgets with a 5% reduction in spending. With ballooning deficits this is a wise and smart move. Let them cut expenses. They can reduce travel, cut meetings, and find a way. I am sure of that. It is high time to work on the deficit and not only balance the budget, but begin reducing the costs of borrowing the money.
Now as sound as this move is, it won’t be easy. Consider this:
In June the senate failed to approve legislation that would have cut a mere $15 billion from the fiscal 2018 budget. The measure was approved by the House but rejected in the Senate on a procedural vote of 48-50, with GOP Sens. Richard Burr of North Carolina and Susan Collins of Maine voting against it.
News You May Have Not Heard:
Did you hear this about Elizabeth Warren?
Her ex-husband co-founded a DNA testing company and wrote one of the first computer codes for making genetic comparisons.
Jim Warren’s career involved him in the kinds of genetic testing that Elizabeth Warren controversially invoked to prove that she had Native American ancestry. One of the two other co-founders of his testing company, FamilyTreeDNA, has worked with Carlos Bustamante, the Stanford University geneticist who administered a DNA test at Elizabeth Warren’s request.