The Final Analysis ….


Now the people speak. Who speaks makes the difference.
The final polls are out:
ABC says it’s still Clinton by 4
IBD says it’s Trump by 2
LATimes says it’s Trump by 3
Monmouth says Clinton by 6
Fox says Clinton by 4

What say us? We say it’s Clinton by 3 in the popular vote.
Tomorrow all the experts will tell you why things happened. It’s easy then. Here’s ours now:
Trump can’t get outside that 43-45 range.
Hillary recovered enough to go to 45-48.
He lost the election with his stand on Hispanics.
We think the post analysis will say he drove that vote up and against him and that made the difference.
The Democratic party rallied to her after the Sanders fight.
The Republicans like Bush, Kasich, Ryan and McConnell and others never rallied to him.
That simple.

Can he win tonight despite the popular vote? Outside chance here’s how:
He holds the Romney base less NC which would be 191 votes
He will win Ohio (18) and Iowa (6), so add 24. Total 215
Now comes the Keys. Florida (29) and NC (15). Here (and Nevada) is where the Hispanic vote makes the difference.
I don’t think he wins Florida which will make for an early night.
If he does win both Florida and NC then add 44 votes. TTL 259
Brew the coffee and get the popcorn done, it’s a long night.
That would be 10 short since he wins with a tie.
Where does the other ten come from? No where he is favored.
NH (4), Pa(20), MI (16), CO (9), WI (10)
Best shots would be Michigan and Colorado and New Hampshire.

New Hampshire alone can’t do it being only four votes.
Michigan in our opinion is a better shot than Pennsylvania.
Michigan (16) by the way, can offset a NC (15)  loss.
Nothing can offset Florida.
Now here’s a scenario that you haven’t heard that could rock everything. He gets to 259 with Florida and NC. Then pulls the upset in Colorado for it’s 9 votes. 268 total. One short.
Then Maine’s second congressional district votes Trump and he gets that one more. Total 269.
Not impossible.
Could you imagine that? Hillary would be calling the FBI!

Exit polls show up in the hands of the networks around 5:00. They won’t share them, but you will be able to tell by their demeanor if this is close or not. Giddiness on CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC, CBS and CNBC will tell you.

With the senate we started out in the beginning with a 50/50 spilt as the real possibility. Then the VP would cast the deciding vote.
We are sticking with the 50/50 end game.
We see Democratic gains in Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Missouri
We don’t see any Republican pick ups.
But they hold, New Hampshire, Florida, Indiana, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana.

The MSM played out the Clinton bias to the end. Today’s NYTimes headline is:
“Optimism From Hillary Clinton and Darkness From Donald Trump at Campaign’s End.”
Did you notice that?

Finally yesterday we mentioned the lost reputation of Jim Comey and the FBI in this campaign as the Clinton’s soar to the White House. Well add these bodies they left by the wayside too.
Donna Brazile, Wolf Blitzer and the entire CNN news team, CNBC and John Harwood, The Bush family, Lester Holt, Martha Raddatz. The list goes on. All of them tainted but the Clintons rise.
All Trump did was ruin his own reputation.
Isn’t it just amazing?

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