48 Hours, Sunday AM


Here come the Sunday polls:
The ever fair and balanced ABC has Hillary up again. She is plus 5 now.
IBD has gone the other way. They have Trump up 1.
NBC/WSJ has Clinton up 4.
The LATimes held steady with Trump up 5.
Real Clear Politics has Hillary up 2 points.

Yesterday we gave Trump a 25% chance to win. It is no better today, maybe worse. Florida and Nevada are looking very questionable from that list we identified he needed to run the table on.

The news this AM is that these two states are truly an issue based upon early voting.  He appears to be ahead in the latest polls in Nevada, but early voting prior to the Comey announcement was so heavy that it may be impossible to overcome.

So where is he trying to find a path? Consider this. He is going all out in Pa. Did you know that in the last six presidential elections they voted Democratic?
He is going to Minnesota and you when the last time they voted for a Republican was? 1972. Yes 1972. They were the lone state to vote Mondale over Reagan!

Not very promising is it?
Lightening can strike and he could make that run we talked about yesterday. It is also possible if he does that she wins the popular vote.

We still wonder what she stands for. When running well ahead she said she would go high while he went low. She has gone pretty low the last few weeks. Her speeches are not about what she will do but how bad Trump is.
She beat him about not saying he would accept the outcome, yet while the electoral college narrowed she hired lawyers ready to challenge.
She defended Obamacare and the increases saying most people wouldn’t pay them, they are being “subsidized”. Oh really? Who is paying the subsidy? You the taxpayer. They talk about “subsidized” as if it’s free money. it’s free alright, right from your paycheck.

It just doesn’t seem to matter to the voters.


Which brings to an issue that will arise post the election. That is, can a Republican ever win again? I have my doubts. We’ll cover it more in depth later but consider this.
Florida with 29 electoral votes has gone Democratic the last two elections and appears to be leaning that way this time. The influx of immigrants and older loyal Democratic voters has tilted the state.
Now consider California (55), NY (29), IL (20) are not even competitive if you add Florida the Democrat starts out with four states and 133 electoral votes locked in.

Add states that in a generation have voted only Democratic like: MA (11), MN. (10), MD (10), and the NE corridor of RI, VT, ME, CT, DE and DC you can add 24 more. Three western states are not competitive. WA (12), OR (7), and NM (5).
That’s 212 electoral votes that are locked.

Then add states that in the last three have gone Democratic and are doing so again this time. NJ (14), WI (10), VA (13), MI (16), PA (20) and you are at 285 electoral votes.

Think about that which of the states seems out of place? We haven’t even talked about “competitive states” like Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa and Nevada. That’s 67 additional votes. Even with a flawed candidate like Hillary Clinton, in a year of change, each of these is a toss up this year.

The Republican party is in trouble. They needed to broaden their appeal to minorities and they have failed in the African-American, Hispanic and Asia-American communities. When you add white liberals to the list it makes the Republican party the new minority in politics.

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