Saturday Night Update
With two plus days to go we see Trump’s chances to win as 25%. A chance, but it all has to break his way now. Here’s our reasoning.
Trump gained the past two weeks, but Hillary has steadied the ship and the race has settled in at a 2-3 point Hillary advantage.
Throughout the campaign she has held a consistent lead of 2-7 points.
He has never lead outside the LATimes poll.
The past two weeks he regained his base and gained in the polls, but as we’ve noted never gets above 45%.
For him to win now would mean he would he will lead only in the last poll. Not likely.
She has the built in Democratic advantage of voters and a significant electoral vote.
To close the electoral gap and have a chance to get to 270 Trump must win every toss up state and then one more.
That means the close states like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada must break his way.
If that happens it’s a tie at 269.
Each of those states is a toss up. Can we really expect him to win all 6?
It’s possible but the odds are long.
We think his biggest issues will be Florida and Nevada. Why?
There may be a larger than anticipated Hispanic vote.
If there is do you think they are coming out for Trump?
Something we wrote months ago and repeated since was this:
Trump may have lost this race when he came down that escalator and called Hispanics murderers and rapists.
So we’ll see. On Tuesday watch Florida. Without their 29 electoral votes Trump would need to win both “fools gold” states Michigan and Penn.
Early on watch New Hampshire. Only four electoral votes but vital for Trump. We think Ohio has trended his way and NC seems to be creeping that way. But he needs to run the table and Florida and Nevada are the problems I see.
Now if Florida breaks with Ohio, NH and Iowa you will be up late waiting for Nevada.
If one small state goes bad like NH, Iowa or Nevada and the others break Trumps way, you can stay up and watch Colorado.
After that I don’t see any other path.
With the senate the races are intriguing. We’ve been predicting a 50/50 spilt while most expert sites say it is going Democrat. Remember there are 24 Republican seats up and only ten Democratic.
As stated from the outset, Illinois and Wisconsin go Democrat.
Indiana has seen a switch. The Republican has caught up and this may be a hold. The Dem, a popular former governor, imploded.
In NH and NC the Republican candidates have advanced as Trump gained.
Pennsylvania still looks dire for the incumbent Republican.
Missouri remains a question. As does one Democratic seat in Nevada.
There’s usually a surprise or two so watch closely.