With four lengths to go ….


With three lengths to go if any bombshells are yet to explode they better hurry up.

The polls have stabilized and if anything taken a tweak to Hillary.
ABC has her up another point to a plus 3 now.
IBD says it’s still a tie.
LATimes still has Trump up 4. (Down 2 from yesterday)
Rasmussen says it’s tied at 44% each (Trump down 3 from yesterday)
Real Clear Politics has Hillary up 2.1.

The state polls are interesting and where it will all be decided.
Take Arizona, Missouri, Utah and Georgia off the board. They are Trump.
The states you need to watch Tuesday night that decide this are:
FL. (H +1), NC (T +1), Ohio (T +3), Iowa (T +1), NV (T +2), NH (T +2)
Trump carries all those and he has 267. He would be 3 short.
So then you need to watch these states that can turn the election:
CO (H+3) ME (H +7) MI (H +6), MN (H +6), Pa (H+3), VA (H+5) WI (H+5)

So Trump needs to run the table on the opportunities and find another state. Now if he won Pa (20 votes) he could lose NC (15) and still get 270.

Expert electoral estimates this AM look like this:
Real Clear Politics.                           Hillary 298   Trump  240
538 Nate Silver:                               Hillary 294    Trump 244
Sabato Center for Politics:              Hillary 294    Trump 244
Pretty consistent aren’t they?
We were there last week. We project as of this AM: (Pending weekend bombs)  Hillary  273  Trump 265

It’s all about turnout and voter pull by teams. Hillary’s upside is greater. She can win Florida and NC and end up with 320 plus.

Now the Senate. There are too many close races in Republican held seats for them to hold. As we have forecast from the outside the best we think Republicans can do is hold this to a four seat loss making it a 50/50 senate. A five seat loss though looks more probable today. Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana and Pennsylvania are the most likely to be lost. Missouri could be a surprise loss. North Carolina and New Hampshire are true toss ups. Republicans have one opportunity, Nevada.

Okay, on to Friday’s activity. Once again the Democrats have a big edge. President Barack Obama delivers remarks at a campaign event for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton at 3:35 p.m. in Fayetteville, N.C., and at 7:35 p.m. in Charlotte, N.C. Vice President Joe Biden campaigns for Mrs. Clinton in Madison, Wis., at 12:15 p.m. ET. Mrs. Clinton holds rallies in Pittsburgh (12:45 p.m.) and Detroit (2 p.m.). She joins Jay Z for a concert in Cleveland later. Her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine, campaigns in Melbourne, Fla. (5:15 p.m.). Sen. Bernie Sanders campaigns in Iowa and Nebraska for Mrs. Clinton, while former President Bill Clinton campaigns in Colorado and Chelsea Clinton campaigns in New Hampshire.
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump holds rallies in Atkinson, N.H. (noon), Wilmington, Ohio (4 p.m.) and Hershey, Pa. (7 p.m.). His running mate, Gov. Mike Pence, holds rallies in Lansing, Mich. (10 a.m.), Greenville, N.C. (1:30 p.m.) and Miami (7 p.m.)

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