Where are we a week out? The polls today say:
– ABC now has Trump up 1.
– IBD has Clinton up 1
– LATimes has Trump up 4
– Rasmussen says it’s a tie
So what do we think?
We think there are major events that we don’t know about yet.
– What will Hillary’s team drop on Trump?
– What does Trump’s team have ready to drop on Hillary?
– What has Wiki Leakes saved for this last week?
– Will the FBI actually say more this week?
– Can they say more?
– Will they exonerate her?
– Will they say there is something here?
Without that it’s really hard to predict with any semblance of confidence.
That said, we believe it’s no longer the electoral landslide we were projecting. Too much has hit Hillary to fire up the Trump base and add those who were wavering. We made some changes in our projections. As a reminder Mitt Romney had 206 electoral votes.
– We now see three states that were Obama ones going Trump:
– Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Total electoral votes for these 53
– We see states Romney won that Trump was lagging in as likely now
– Arizona, Georgia, Missouri and Utah
– The state we see a problem as of today is North Carolina
– Clinton is up 3 for these 15 electoral votes crucial to Trump
Taking the above into account Trump today would end up with 244 votes
So Trump needs to get from 244 to 270 in the next week. His best shots:
– NC (15), CO (8) she is up 4, NV(4) she is up 2, NH (4) she is up 6
I still don’t believe in the states I call “fools gold” for Republicans:
– MI (16) she is up 6. PA (30) she is up 6
There is the task ahead for Trump. A tough road. Not as tough as last week or last month but a challenge for sure. We have to watch the wave underway to see their impact in these key states.
Our projection today is Hillary 294 and Trump 244 — but closing.
Now what is impacted is Congress. The Republicans will — as of today — hold the house for sure. They now have a chance in the Senate, because even some voting for Hillary don’t want to give her a complete mandate. But it still looks like a likely Democratic win.
Remember Democrats need four pickups if Hillary wins, five if Trump.
The number of seats in jeopardy for Republicans is down but enough to tilt the senate.
– We still see Illinois and Wisconsin as sure Democratic gains.
– We still think Indiana will be a loss but it is getting closer.
– PA is trending toward the Democrat McGinty. She is up 4.
– MO is a pure toss up and a current Republican seat
– NH is a donnybrook. Rep, Ayotte has edged ahead by 2
– NC is up in the air. Rep Burr is up 1.
– The one possible Rep. pick up is Nevada. It is tied today
So the senate is where we have been projecting all along. It may well end with the VP having the deciding vote.
That’s it with a week to go. By the time you read this who knows what “breaking news” will be out there. Vote early? Are you crazy? Listen to the news on the way into the booth!