The big question in the political arena remains, is there something happening? The answer is which poll are you looking at.
Examples of polls released in the last 24 hours.
– IBD which had been tracking Trump now has Clinton by 2
– Rasmussen which had been tracking Trump now has Clinton by 1
– The AP has Clinton by 14
– USA has Clinton by 9
– ABC has Clinton by 6
– Reuters has Clinton by 4
– Fox has Clinton by 3
– LATimes which had Trump up says it’s a tie
So the polls show a wide scope of difference. But a few thoughts:
– None show Trump in the lead
– 7 of 8 say Clinton is ahead
– If you take the average then Clinton is ahead by 6.
Our assessment is Trump is making gains but trails by about 4 today
Can he make that up? Here are the facts as we see them:
– Trump’s gains in recent days are simply his base coming back
– In every poll released this AM he is between 40 and 45
– Remember our assessment he cannot get past 45
– So we see this gain as his base recovery as the video fades in memory
– He is not winning new voters over, simply recovering
– Though CNN moved Florida and Nevada back to toss up, he still trails
– Clinton leads in key must win states by the following:
– AR by 2, CO 6, FL 2, NH 7, Maine 5, MI 6, NV 2, NC 2, Pa 4, Va 7, WI 7
– Trump has much ground to make up in those. He does lead in:
– GA by 3, Iowa by 4, MO by 6, OH by 1
So what we will say is he has closed the gap. ABC went from a 12 point Clinton lead to 9 the other day to 6 today. Fox went from 6 to 3. But I caution it is more his people coming back and getting the race back to where it was before the video.
The variables in the next twelve days:
– Can Trump stay out of trouble with what he says?
– Can he keep the focus on policy and Hillary and not say anything wild?
– What do the Clintons have planned to drop on him? You know they do.
– What impact will the daily Wiki Leakes drops have?
– Wiki Leakes has done enough that the MSM has to begin covering it.
– Is Wiki Leakes holding all the personal Hillary emails for next week?
– Up to now they have only released her staff’s memos. Are hers coming?
Trump has a long way to go. He needs an inside straight to win. That means he needs to stay focused. Put the spotlight on his policies and her. It means that his actions and Wiki Leakes releases hurt her turnout. He can win if Hillary backers turn to a third party or don’t vote. They are not going over to him.
She maintains the edge in people out on the stump for her, in ground game, has the MSM supporting her and that she is a Democrat.
Want an example of the unfair MSM? Yesterday Trump took a few hours to open his new hotel in Washington DC. He did so with a strong political message. It was that the hotel was — Built under-budget and ahead of schedule. Powerful. What did the MSM cover? Take the example of ABC with George Stephanopoulos. He pressed Trump over taking time off from his campaign to support his business. First of all it was the message, George. Second, Trump made clear he was still doing more stops that day than Hillary and had consistently done so. It was a poor cheap shot from George, CNN and the Clinton friends in the MSM. I thought it would be fun to check their schedules today.
First lady Michelle Obama campaigns with Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in Winston-Salem, N.C. at 2 p.m.
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump holds rallies in Springfield, Ohio (1 p.m.), Toledo, Ohio (4 p.m.) and Geneva, Ohio (7 p.m.). Mr. Trump appears on EWTN Global Catholic Network at 8 p.m.
Any MSM want to question why Hillary can only do one event so close the the election? Trump did more than that yesterday when you said he took off.