Back On The Trail


So Hillary’s back on the trail and the race is joined once again. Trump continues to keep a busy, busy schedule. Her’s will be measured in the days ahead. While she was gone, he continued gaining ground and closing the gap. What do the polls say? (I am using 4 person polls since that is reality, with the knowledge that the third party numbers will likely drop)
CBS:                    Tie 42-42.  Johnson 8, Stein 2
Rasmussen:        Trump 42  Clinton 40, Johnson 7, Stein 2
LATimes:            Trump by 6  (they only track the two leading candidates)
Qunnipiac:          Clinton 41  Trump 39, Johnson 13, Stein 4
Reuters:              Clinton 39, Trump 39, Johnson 8, Stein 2
Economist:         Clinton 42, Trump 40, Johnson 5, Stein 3
FoxNews:            Clinton 41, Trump 40, Johnson 8, Stein 3

Take your choice, but it shows a close race and Trump gains. In fact the RCP average now shows Clinton up 1.1% only. (42% to 40.9%)

A few things to note on this Trump rise:
He remains in that 40-45 range that we have talked about.
She has fallen more than he has gained.
What will happen once the dust settles and she is back on the trail?
Can he drive himself over that 45% number?
Can she convince people she is healthy and trustworthy?
More voters appear to be voting against rather than for a candidate than ever.
The debate looms large.
Can he pull a Reagan and stand on the stage and appear calm and ready for the job?
Can she make him appear unknowledgeable and get him off his game?
She has lowered expectations for him by her presentation of his ability and personality. Expectations are everything.
The stakes in this first debate are big as any since Reagan and Carter squared off for the lone debate, four days before the election.

The state polls we talked so much about yesterday are trending his way.
State Polls:
Trump had lot’s of good news yesterday. He was up in:
Col by 4, Iowa by 8, Ohio by 3, Mo by 13, Ga by 4, Tx by 7. Fl by 3, Nv by 2
Clinton was up in:
Mi by 3, Va by 3, Maine by 3, and Mass by 26

To put these numbers in perspective if Trump held all the states he leads in above added to the 163 we said were solid yesterday he would have 247 electoral votes. Add Arizona which we think he will win and he has 258. That’s still 12 shy of election, which illustrates his challenge.  Stay tuned.

The MSM, as we thought, started to turn on Trump yesterday. As an example, ABC Evening News did a hatchet job on him with three negative stories. One was on Donald Jr., who went on this morning to challenge them. The morning network and cable shows all went after Trump on the birther issue. Next will be the taxes again. If the Trump momentum continues it will be interesting to watch. They (the MSM) are getting a little nervous with his rise. Watch them and you can see they wonder, “how is this guy still in the race against our Hillary”. Hillary for her part is bashing Trump at every turn. Her twitter account is one big Trump bash with dozens and dozens of constant negative tweets. No positive messages.

======================  Quick Hits ========================

Remember all the charges of Trump paying the Florida $25K campaign donation to call off an investigation? It was an answer to the Clinton Pay to Play Foundation charges. Well the NYTimes had a story saying the timeline didn’t fit the charges. Did you hear that on the MSM?

Did you here this story about Trumps sister?
“Judge Maryanne Trump Barry, the 78-year-old sister of Republician presidential candidate Donald Trump, has given Fairfield University a $4 million gift. Barry, a senior judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, is a longtime supporter of, and 2011 honorary degree recipient from, the university. The annoucement of her gift was made Wednesday by the Rev. Jeffrey P. von Arx, president of Fairfield University. The gift will fund scholarships to enable young people to pursue an education at Fairfield, and will permanently endow Fairfield’s Center for Ignatian Spirituality.”

Did you see this story on the MSM from a Democratic donor who said the Clinton’s hate Obama and call him “that man”?

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