An Election Assessment


With eleven days to the seminal moment of debate one I thought it would be a good time to assess where we are and what the outcome looks like.

Trump has closed the gap without question the past month. After the DNC and before Kelly Anne Conway arrived this was heading for a monumental Democratic sweep. Today Trump has a chance. How much? Growing, but I say about a 35% shot entering debate one. Why?

It’s about electoral votes. Clinton has some big and smaller states locked:
California (55), New York (29), Illinois (20), NJ (14), Wash (12) Mass (11), Md (10), Ct (7), NM (5) RI (4) Haw (4) Del (3) Vt. (3) and DC (3).
That’s 180 of the 270 needed to win.

Her path is easier. Think of two places I call fools gold for Republicans:
Pa (20) and Va (13). These 33 added to the 180 equals 213.

Now her path is wide open to get to 270. Think traditional Dem. states:
Mich (16), Minn (10) and she gets to 239.
From there she needs any combination like:
Fla (29) and Iowa (6) and she has 274
Ohio (18), Wi (10), NH (4) and she has 270
Colo (9), NC (15) and Nev. (6) are other places she is either favored or tied.

So you can see the combination for her to get to 270 are many and varied.

Now Trump has a rougher road. He looks strong in:
Tx (38) and then 20 smaller states totaling 125 electoral votes.
Thus his base appears to be 163.

He has to hold two contested Republican states Ar. (11) and Ga. (16)
Total 190

So to get to 270 he needs all of the above plus three major states:
Fl (29), Ohio (18) NC (15)  This gets him to 252
Then he needs 18 additional from:
Iowa (6), Wi (10), NH (4), Mich. (16) or Minn (10)

You can see in these numbers the challenge he (and any Republican) has. What does it look like now?
I think based upon today Trump can win Florida and Ohio.
N. Carolina looks like a true toss up. Hard to see him winning without it. Where the other 18 come from is a challenge. My best assessment today is: Iowa (6). NH (4) and WI (10) are his best hopes.

We’ll watch these key states for you as we proceed.

One interesting thing to remember. Two states award their electoral votes by region. So it is possible for Hillary to win Maine and Trump to get one of their three electoral votes. This is very possible. Imagine a one electoral vote win based upon that scenario.

One last thought on this. Turnout. There is little real excitement on either side for their candidate. Many are voting against the other guy (or woman). Turnout may not be big and that could impact everything. We’ve said a number of times that it appears Trump’s high is 45% of the electorate. If turnout drops that 45% can be bigger than a normal election. I think as of today we will see a drop in turnout.

Of course key events can change everything so stay tuned for the debates, health updates, Obama on the trail, Trump off the teleprompter and nasty commercials.

———– Quick Updates —————

Biased media? Remember  yesterday we shared Bill Clinton’s “frequent” comment on Hillary’s health? CBS edited that word out of it’s coverage:

Here’s a very encouraging AP story for Trump on voter registrations in the key states we talked about above:

Want to get mad again about the FBI and Hillary’s emails? A close connected friend told me a year ago the FBI was told not to press charges. Check this story from yesterday.

Is there a divide in the country? Read this on concern about Hillary’s health from Rasmussen. overall 50% are concerned, but only 28% of Democrats are.

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