Labor Day Plus One


Lot’s of news Tuesday about the CNN poll that suddenly had Trump up 2 after they had him down 8. The same day the LA Times poll which has consistently had Trump up, now showed a tie. Then a third poll the NBC one had Hillary up 4. So what does Real Clear Politics (RCP) say? They have Clinton ahead by 2.4. What’s clear is this:

Trump has had a good two weeks as we’ve reported and narrowed the gap.
Hillary appears to us to have a slight edge, the 2% looks about right.
The electoral college hasn’t closed yet. State polls this week show a gap.
In Pa. she leads by 8 and NC by 4 in polls released Tuesday.

Now take a look at the numbers in all the polls. Remember when we said we thought Trump was a 40 -45% per cent candidate?  That is still his high in any poll. I don’t know how he gets to 50%. We said Hillary had a range of 45-50. She is now at the bottom end of that range. The question is does the drip drip drip of her emails drive her lower? Will her supporters disband her with the stories continuing to show she lied? That is the key to watch here.

Remember that Bill Clinton never got 50% if the vote. In his first election he got 43% while Bush got 37 and Ross Perot rose to 19%. Perot helped him win taking votes from Bush. Wouldn’t it be ironic if Hillary loses because the third party drives her vote down and Trump wins with 45%. Let’s pay close attention to her travails with the emails.

The past week I have had the opportunity to spend time at the JFK museum in Dallas, then visit the George H W Bush, LBJ and George W Bush libraries. One thing came across clear to me. The values of and positions of JFK are the values of the Republican party today, while the Democratic party has moved far left. He was for lower taxes, a strong military and a clear foreign policy. Think about his famous inauguration quote, “think not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country”.  That tells you everything. I always considered myself a Kennedy Democrat and Reagan Republican and didn’t think they were alien to each other. Here’s an interesting article on exactly this.

Quick notes:

Thousands of pages of additional Hillary emails are coming in the next few weeks. This could impact her trust issues and poll numbers.

Can she win just demonizing Trump? It worked for LBJ in 1964 against Goldwater, but he was an incumbent replacing a popular assassinated President and had full control of Congress.

She maintains a big advantage in money on hand, party support, and ground game to pull the votes. She also maintains a strong electoral advantage with states locked into the Democratic party.

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