A Trump Day


As of the writing Donald Trump is enjoying a great day, solid week and may be making up some ground. Very Presidential in his surprise meeting with the Mexican President, he outshone the man on the big stage after. In fact there is somewhat of an uproar in Mexico and some Hispanic circles here. They feel like Trump used him, took him to the cleaners and then out presented him. It may be why the Mexican President actually tweeted out later that he told Trump at the start that he was not paying for the wall. That would be consistent with Trump who said in his speech that they did not discuss who would pay for it. They did agree on building it. Who would have guessed that 48 hours ago? The visit was high risk and it will be high reward as I see it.

Hillary was very weak in her response to Trump’s visit. She was shocked by the news and looking for a way to respond. She didn’t find it as of this writing. Whenever she gets in trouble she reverts to calling Trump a racist. Have you noticed that? She and her supporters make the KKK look like a powerful force, when in reality they are few in number. Why they do this is clear. Here’s an interesting article that talks about the topic.

It was her first public appearance in a week, as she has been behind closed doors raising funds (and not answering questions). She attacked on many things from Russia to his fight with Kahn again. One strikes me as REALLY YOU SAID that. Here’s her quote, “I will never, ever disrespect Gold Star families who’ve made the ultimate sacrifice for our nation.” Wow, Hillary listen to the Benghazi families.

Then Trump made his immigration speech and after a week of talk about his changed policy he doubled down on it. He closed out a strong speech with families of killed children by illegal aliens. Very emotional and strong. Get ready for the Hillary counter with families who will be separated because of the policies and a strong MSM support her side.

And get ready for an onslaught from Obama, Biden, Bill and the entire Clinton machine. They see the momentum switch and will be out in force with strong MSM coverage to bash Trump. Watch.

A good number of polls yesterday. A little narrowing it appears, and for sure the Trump decline has halted. Check out the numbers from the polls:
Fox News: Hillary by 2 in a four way race
Hillary by 6 in a two way race.
Reuters:     Hillary by 2 in a four way race.
Hillary by 1 in a two way race.
Economist:Hillary by 3 in a four way race
Hillary by 5 in a two way race

So all three have Hillary ahead but by a narrower margin than what was. Real Clear Politics has these numbers for averages:
Hillary 42, Trump 38, Johnson 8 Stein 3
In a two person race it’s Hillary 47, Trump 42

We said earlier that we think Trump’s upside is 45 and he may pick up a point or two in the next week if he stays on his current pace.
We feel her upside is 50. She doesn’t get there in any of these polls. The constant drumbeat on the emails now is not helping her. She has to get that behind her because her unfavorable numbers are now up to 59%. She has almost caught Trump, who is at 60%.
A few more weeks like the last one and yesterday and we may have a race.

Two senate updates that support yesterdays analysis. The Democrat (Feingold) leads the incumbent (Johnson) in Wisconsin by 3. We project that as a Republican loss. In NC the incumbent Republican (Burr) now leads his opponent by 4. That is a must hold if Republicans want to hold the senate.

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