Assessing The Race


The question I was asked yesterday was with all the email activity, foundation stories and health rumors did I see the dynamics of the race changing.  My answer is no and here’s why.

The two to three week period post the conventions are key. If you remember we pointed out that whomever painted their opponent better to the public would have the strong advantage. Clinton won that going away. She was prepared to paint Tump as one not to be trusted with the nuclear codes and not having the temperament to lead the nation. He fed the MSM narrative of an egotistical individual who was out of control. His focus on everything except her (remember he went to Cruz’s Father the day after his convention) just compounded things. As a result of that period I think:
– He locked himself into a vote range of 40-45%. He is going to have trouble getting beyond that.
– She gained some traction but could never really crack 50%. The “liar” and untrustworthy tag is going to stick. She will settle in between 45 and 50%.

So we end up with two truly flawed candidates that cannot get to 50+%. She maintains the clear advantage because she is a Democrat and has complete minority group support. (He lost the Hispanic vote when he came down that escalator to announce and called them killers and rapists). She also took solid leads in every swing state and put some red ones in play for now. The Clinton team has out managed the Trump team easily.

Because both are flawed and the public is dismayed the third party candidates are gaining. Gary Johnson and The Libertarian party are now polling 9% in the RCP average; and actually got to 10 and 11% in the last two polls. The 11% is in the NBC poll which is one of the five measuring ones for the 15% he needs to make the debates. Jill Stein (Green Party) has been on the air a lot but remains bogged down in the 4-5% range. The report attached below shows Johnson gaining with Hispanics and younger voters, which is good for Trump. He has to hope for Hillary to drop because his possible gains are limited.

The NY Times did a review of the Senate races and reports that Democrats have a 60% chance of retaking the senate. They report a 43% chance they win the chamber outright and 17% that it ends up 50 seats each with the VP who they expect to be Kaine the deciding vote. The current senate is 54R and 46D. As of today I am leaning closer to the 50/50 spilt. Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana look to be Republican losses. I think Rubio in Fla., Portman in Ohio and Blunt in Missouri are gaining slight leads. With the three losses the Republicans need to win two of these three to keep an edge, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The first two are tough, NC shouldn’t be but is. The one other place there could be a race is the Democrat seat of Harry Reid in Nevada. Wouldn’t it be ironic if Republicans hold the senate because they won Reid’s seat?

Two human interest stories for our readers:

The US Army confirmed that one of its units highlighted former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as an example of an “insider” threat to operational security. It was funny Hillary was listed with Snowden, Hasan Manning and others.

The second is for you of a certain age.
The Associated Press reports that one of the two remaining Howard Johnson’s restaurants in the country – located in Bangor, Maine – will close in a couple of weeks, leaving only the one in business operating in Lake George, New York.

The story notes that author Stephen King used to be a regular there, but in recent years business has slowed to the point where hours were being cut back and the restaurant stopped serving dinner. And, amazingly, one employee – 68-year-old Kathe Jewett – has been there since the HoJo’s opened in 1966, and will be there on the last day of operation; it is the only job she’s ever had, and even she concedes that “it’s nothing to be sad about … I’ve been here for 50 years, and it’s time.”

The AP writes that the Howard Johnson’s restaurant chain started in 1925, “once numbered more than 800, with the New England-based restaurant chain predating the ubiquitous Howard Johnson hotels.”

Everything changes.

Pay attention today to the news today. Trump went off script and called Hillary a “bigot” last night. I have a feeling with the MSM that will replace the emails as the story. Then today he will again address his changing immigration stance. That will defintently push the emails off page one. Finally Hillary will tie Donald to racist groups and somehow that won’t be the same to the MSM as Trump calling her a bigot. Why is that? Why is one calling you a racist different from a bigot? Answer, one is a Liberal Democrat.

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