Month: August 2016

A Trump Day


As of the writing Donald Trump is enjoying a great day, solid week and may be making up some ground. Very Presidential in his surprise meeting with the Mexican President, he outshone the man on the big stage after. In fact there is somewhat of an uproar in Mexico and some Hispanic circles here. They feel like Trump used him, took him to the cleaners and then out presented him. It may be why the Mexican President actually tweeted out later that he told Trump at the start that he was not paying for the wall. That would be consistent with Trump who said in his speech that they did not discuss who would pay for it. They did agree on building it. Who would have guessed that 48 hours ago? The visit was high risk and it will be high reward as I see it.

Hillary was very weak in her response to Trump’s visit. She was shocked by the news and looking for a way to respond. She didn’t find it as of this writing. Whenever she gets in trouble she reverts to calling Trump a racist. Have you noticed that? She and her supporters make the KKK look like a powerful force, when in reality they are few in number. Why they do this is clear. Here’s an interesting article that talks about the topic.

It was her first public appearance in a week, as she has been behind closed doors raising funds (and not answering questions). She attacked on many things from Russia to his fight with Kahn again. One strikes me as REALLY YOU SAID that. Here’s her quote, “I will never, ever disrespect Gold Star families who’ve made the ultimate sacrifice for our nation.” Wow, Hillary listen to the Benghazi families.

Then Trump made his immigration speech and after a week of talk about his changed policy he doubled down on it. He closed out a strong speech with families of killed children by illegal aliens. Very emotional and strong. Get ready for the Hillary counter with families who will be separated because of the policies and a strong MSM support her side.

And get ready for an onslaught from Obama, Biden, Bill and the entire Clinton machine. They see the momentum switch and will be out in force with strong MSM coverage to bash Trump. Watch.

A good number of polls yesterday. A little narrowing it appears, and for sure the Trump decline has halted. Check out the numbers from the polls:
Fox News: Hillary by 2 in a four way race
Hillary by 6 in a two way race.
Reuters:     Hillary by 2 in a four way race.
Hillary by 1 in a two way race.
Economist:Hillary by 3 in a four way race
Hillary by 5 in a two way race

So all three have Hillary ahead but by a narrower margin than what was. Real Clear Politics has these numbers for averages:
Hillary 42, Trump 38, Johnson 8 Stein 3
In a two person race it’s Hillary 47, Trump 42

We said earlier that we think Trump’s upside is 45 and he may pick up a point or two in the next week if he stays on his current pace.
We feel her upside is 50. She doesn’t get there in any of these polls. The constant drumbeat on the emails now is not helping her. She has to get that behind her because her unfavorable numbers are now up to 59%. She has almost caught Trump, who is at 60%.
A few more weeks like the last one and yesterday and we may have a race.

Two senate updates that support yesterdays analysis. The Democrat (Feingold) leads the incumbent (Johnson) in Wisconsin by 3. We project that as a Republican loss. In NC the incumbent Republican (Burr) now leads his opponent by 4. That is a must hold if Republicans want to hold the senate.



ELECTION UPDATES: New polls today. NBC has Hillary up 4.

The WSJ Think Tank did an election analysis and came up with this:
“Seven characteristics of the 2016 presidential race, including the fact the lead for Hillary Clinton has settled in: The race has mostly ranged between zero to eight points and settled at four or five points. Though small, this is a significant advantage for Hillary Clinton and is likely to be impacted only through the debates.”

Some good news for Republican Senate candidates. They have taken leads in some key states. Pa. Toomey up 7;  Ohio Portman up 8;  Fl. Rubio up 5; NC Burr up 3; and Missouri Blunt up 5. If they can hold those four it would help. Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana appear to be losses, so they have a cushion of one pending all the others. New Hampshire and Nevada could be the deciding seats.

I don’t see how this Bill Clinton comment can help Hillary in Detroit and Michigan. With Obama claiming to have reached his goal already of 10,000 refugees this year already, how does Clinton talking about them filling jobs in Detroit help there?

Obamacare continues to unravel. Here’s a story that says nearly a third of the country might end up with one choice. The system was built with the idea competition would keep costs down. I don’t think there is time and a good enough way to explain all this to the voters to matter this year. But the next President is going to face a real problem. The Democratic solution  if they win will be what they wanted from the outset. A single payer system.

Did you see the State Department announced “the agency had discovered 30 Benghazi-related emails among the records recovered from Hillary Clinton’s private server.” They were ordered to release them upon review. There won’t be any smoking gun in them as the FBI has likely seen them and do you think they would have volunteered them if there was?

Fox News continues to dominate the cable war. They won the August Ratings War big, but the surprise was MSNBC came in second overall (CNN did with the key demo group). For those interested here’s the story:

Cable News Ratings: CNN, MSNBC Battle for Second in August as Fox News Dominates Again

Any Good News Here?


The latest national presidential polls, take your choice:
Monmouth – Hill by 7, LAT – Tie, Gravis – Hill by 1, Quinnipiac – H by 10.
RCP average shows Hillary by 6.

New key state polls released Monday:
Pa. Clinton by 3. Ohio – Tie, Michigan Hillary by 5. Arizona Hillary by 1.

Not much good news for Trump there. One funny thing though you continue to see signs of a hidden Trump vote. There is a theory that voters are not telling pollsters they are voting for Trump, but all these little things like t-shirts sold show more Trump. Maybe more dedicated voters? Here’s one today on soda sales in blue Connecticut: “The soda company is conducting its own presidential straw poll based on sales of the two soft drinks, with Trump Tonic leading with 26,650 bottles (54 percent) to Hilary Hooch’s 22,220 bottles (45 percent) as of Aug. 15”.

Interesting WSJ story on Florida: “Florida, the largest swing state, is being keenly targeted by the presidential campaigns. Fast-growing minority communities give Democrats an increasing advantage in Florida, one of the most heated battlegrounds in the presidential election. A different and little-noted demographic trend is helping to keep the state competitive for Donald Trump: a new influx of white retirees. While Democrat Hillary Clinton can lose the state and find other paths to victory, it is seen as a must-win for Mr. Trump. New arrivals help explain why the Florida race remains tight in polls. The most recent, a Mason-Dixon survey released Friday, showed Mr. Trump trailing Mrs. Clinton by only two points among likely voters, a slim margin helped in part by his lead of over 20 points among white seniors.”

Another Hollywood star says she is leaving the country if Trump wins. This time it’s Barbara Streisand. If he wins we are going to miss all these stars.

Huma Abedin, Hillary’s top aide made news. She decided she had enough of Weiner. I guess he’s free now to be himself and fully expose his er personality on Twitter and elsewhere.

For you sports fans, especially Jet and Eagle fans. Did you see the Denver Bronco’s named their starting quarterback and it’s Trevor Siemian. I bet you never heard of him. But what is interesting is who he beat out. Mark Sanchez.

A Quiet Weekend – For Hillary

Editors Note: Due to travel blog days and time may vary beginning Wed.


With Hillary out of the limelight for days the MSM has nothing else to do or report except attack Trump, which they did in full gusto. You’d think at some point they’d get upset with Hillary for not being around and available, but it hasn’t happened yet.

And what is there to talk to her about anyway? Oh emails that’s right, and how about this. Is there a tie between her state department activity and the Clinton Foundation? To know you need to know her meeting schedule. Well here is the state department response. “Clinton calendars won’t be released until after election”.

With the limelight to himself Trump could make some headway except he helps the MSM make it easier to report negative on him. He tweeted before he thought and turned a potential strong message on a Chicago killing into a negative. He tried to catch up an hour later but the media would not let him.

Add the continued confusion over what his immigration stance is and the MSM can continue portraying an out of control candidate and campaign.

Oh yea, add the stories of wife beating and supposedly negative Jewish statements with his new campaign CEO Stephen Bannon and you have the complete storm.

No change in the polls, RCP has it Clinton by 6. It is steady now. All purple states trending to Hillary.

Quick Hits:

Sunday NY Post column by Michael Goodwin hits it right. Title: Elections are a game — and Clinton plays it better

No coverage of this really but an issue Trump could play and America would react to. Joe Biden says he expects Obama to close Gitmo before leaving office. That is to keep a wrong promise, Obama will release all the terrorist prisoners.

A coincidence? Maybe. After six years on CNN Dr Drew’s show was cancelled within days of his questioning Hillary’s health.

Media bias? PBS Gets Caught Cutting Criticism Of Hillary, TPP, and Obamacare From Jill Stein Interview. of Obamacare, the day of reckoning is coming, but Obama delayed the bills until he leaves office.

Special Edition


With the MSM attacking Trump with Hillary’s “racist” charge, and ridiculing his calling her a “bigot”, I thought you should be aware of this.

Another Week


This and That to close the week:

You have heard no doubt about the CEO of Mylan the drug maker of EpiPen who gave herself a huge raise while raising the price of this food allergy life saver 460% since 2007. It’s all over the airwaves. But did you know she is the daughter of a Democratic Senator? That she was a contributor to the Clinton Foundation? The MSM did not seem to cover that part.

Did you happen to hear Wikileakes founder Julian Assange on the Kelly File? He promised an October surprise that will really damage Hillary.

Did you hear or see one of the funniest lines of this campaign season from Rudy Guiliani? He said at a Florida rally:  “The Only Enthusiastic Crowd Hillary Could Draw Would Be a Grand Jury”

Remember when they called Republicans the party of the rich? Here’s an interesting story on how Hillary is out raising Donald 44-1 from the wealthiest 25 zip codes in the country.
You all know Gabby Giffords the Democratic congress person who was shot and is leading the anti gun movement. She spoke at the Democratic Convention. Her gun group endorsed two Republicans. When I first heard that I figured they backed two sure winners to try and gain influence. But no, one was Pat Toomey in Pa. a true toss up race and may be the key to Senate control. The other was Mark Kirk in Illinois a likely loser. A surprise for sure.

Here’s a piece from the Washington Times that talks about the MSM and it’s performance and demise this election season.

You may recall we remarked about the manner in which Trump was reaching out to minority voters and the language he was using. The NY Times had a good story on it.

Finally, Trump’s immigration policy remains top of the news. He just never gets things behind him so he can keep the focus on Hillary. His immigration was a disaster from the ride down the escalator. I am going to repeat one more time the best way out. Below is directly from our blog post of June 17th. Take a reread, what sound advice it was.

First, shut up. Literally think before your mouth moves. You are Hillary’s best friend so far.

Cease, as in stop attacking popular Republicans like Governor Martinez in New Mexico. Are you serious attacking her? A popular woman, who is latino and the head of the Republican Governor’s association? What serious candidate would do that with the latino issues you already have? I know you are too arrogant to fix the issue, but you better find humility. Your enemy is Hillary, the liberals and the press. Not Governor Martinez.

Next a Muslim ban might be popular in the Republican Primary with it’s narrow voting bloc. You are going to be buried with it in the general election. Your “wall” is okay, but you went too far. Back up.

Want a way out? Here’s your way:

Change it to a call for a “Security Hold” on immigration “until” we can set a vetting process that we can live with. You see Donald words matter. Then say you have a team headed by someone like Tom Ridge ready to evaluate and provide recommendations following the election and you expect to have the new rules in place by inauguration day. You want a hold to assure America is safe.

Next, announce your immigration plan. Deporting twelve million people may be popular in a restricted primary. You are about to get buried on this with ads showing kids born here who will be separated from parents and grandparents that will bury you. Your new plan should be this. We have a legal immigration process that has people’s names on it who have applied. Those of you here illegally, you have six months to add your names if not already on it. You then will be allowed to stay as you await citizenship. But, you must register, not break any laws, pay taxes and be part of society. This approach should satisfy hard liners because we are not granting citizenship to those who entered illegally, and keep liberals quiet because we are not deporting and separating families. Let Hillary defend why this is harsh. You will win that battle. You can’t win defending your current position.

Assessing The Race


The question I was asked yesterday was with all the email activity, foundation stories and health rumors did I see the dynamics of the race changing.  My answer is no and here’s why.

The two to three week period post the conventions are key. If you remember we pointed out that whomever painted their opponent better to the public would have the strong advantage. Clinton won that going away. She was prepared to paint Tump as one not to be trusted with the nuclear codes and not having the temperament to lead the nation. He fed the MSM narrative of an egotistical individual who was out of control. His focus on everything except her (remember he went to Cruz’s Father the day after his convention) just compounded things. As a result of that period I think:
– He locked himself into a vote range of 40-45%. He is going to have trouble getting beyond that.
– She gained some traction but could never really crack 50%. The “liar” and untrustworthy tag is going to stick. She will settle in between 45 and 50%.

So we end up with two truly flawed candidates that cannot get to 50+%. She maintains the clear advantage because she is a Democrat and has complete minority group support. (He lost the Hispanic vote when he came down that escalator to announce and called them killers and rapists). She also took solid leads in every swing state and put some red ones in play for now. The Clinton team has out managed the Trump team easily.

Because both are flawed and the public is dismayed the third party candidates are gaining. Gary Johnson and The Libertarian party are now polling 9% in the RCP average; and actually got to 10 and 11% in the last two polls. The 11% is in the NBC poll which is one of the five measuring ones for the 15% he needs to make the debates. Jill Stein (Green Party) has been on the air a lot but remains bogged down in the 4-5% range. The report attached below shows Johnson gaining with Hispanics and younger voters, which is good for Trump. He has to hope for Hillary to drop because his possible gains are limited.

The NY Times did a review of the Senate races and reports that Democrats have a 60% chance of retaking the senate. They report a 43% chance they win the chamber outright and 17% that it ends up 50 seats each with the VP who they expect to be Kaine the deciding vote. The current senate is 54R and 46D. As of today I am leaning closer to the 50/50 spilt. Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana look to be Republican losses. I think Rubio in Fla., Portman in Ohio and Blunt in Missouri are gaining slight leads. With the three losses the Republicans need to win two of these three to keep an edge, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The first two are tough, NC shouldn’t be but is. The one other place there could be a race is the Democrat seat of Harry Reid in Nevada. Wouldn’t it be ironic if Republicans hold the senate because they won Reid’s seat?

Two human interest stories for our readers:

The US Army confirmed that one of its units highlighted former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as an example of an “insider” threat to operational security. It was funny Hillary was listed with Snowden, Hasan Manning and others.

The second is for you of a certain age.
The Associated Press reports that one of the two remaining Howard Johnson’s restaurants in the country – located in Bangor, Maine – will close in a couple of weeks, leaving only the one in business operating in Lake George, New York.

The story notes that author Stephen King used to be a regular there, but in recent years business has slowed to the point where hours were being cut back and the restaurant stopped serving dinner. And, amazingly, one employee – 68-year-old Kathe Jewett – has been there since the HoJo’s opened in 1966, and will be there on the last day of operation; it is the only job she’s ever had, and even she concedes that “it’s nothing to be sad about … I’ve been here for 50 years, and it’s time.”

The AP writes that the Howard Johnson’s restaurant chain started in 1925, “once numbered more than 800, with the New England-based restaurant chain predating the ubiquitous Howard Johnson hotels.”

Everything changes.

Pay attention today to the news today. Trump went off script and called Hillary a “bigot” last night. I have a feeling with the MSM that will replace the emails as the story. Then today he will again address his changing immigration stance. That will defintently push the emails off page one. Finally Hillary will tie Donald to racist groups and somehow that won’t be the same to the MSM as Trump calling her a bigot. Why is that? Why is one calling you a racist different from a bigot? Answer, one is a Liberal Democrat.

Studying The Landscape


On the 15,000 Clinton emails the judge asked for a review of classified material by September 22. If the State Department meets the deadline the emails will be released by mid October. Looks like the email issue will stay alive until election day. The only caution I offer Trump supporters is this. It was the FBI that found these in their probe, they have seen them and decided not to indict. That doesn’t mean (as Comey tight walked his hearing) that they didn’t find a foundation connection and are conducting a review there. However, the Obama administration would never allow anything out until after the election.

In fact the AP broke a story last night that reported ” More than half the people outside the government who met with Hillary Clinton while she was secretary of state gave money – either personally or through companies or groups – to the Clinton Foundation. It’s an extraordinary proportion……” It also reported, “At least 85 of 154 people from private interests who met or had phone conversations scheduled with Clinton while she led the State Department donated to her family charity or pledged commitments to its international programs, according to a review of State Department calendars released so far to The Associated Press. Combined, the 85 donors contributed as much as $156 million. At least 40 donated more than $100,000 each, and 20 gave more than $1 million.” This story has more to go so we’ll see; but I remind you the Clintons are lawyers and walk up to the line all the time. They are slick. Here’s the full story, very interesting.

One minority group not often spoken about is the Asian-American the nation’s fastest-growing racial group. More than nine million of them will be eligible to vote in November. This is up 16% from four years ago. In key battleground states like Nevada they can make the difference as they will be 7% of the voters. Like other minority groups they tilt sharply Democratic too. The breakdown for the voting groups in November is as follows:

White 69% , Hispanic 12%, Black 12%, Asian 4%
If you contrast those number just back to 2000 you get this:
White 78%,  Hispanic  7%,  Black 12%, Asian 2%
You can see how difficult a challenge Trump has from those numbers with minorities voting overwhelmingly against him. Thus his current attempt to outreach. Republicans must learn to do this from day one.

Remember when we told you to keep a watch on Turkey relationships after the coup attempt and Turkey blaming a former leader living in the U.S.? Well they have made a formal request for him to be extradited. This could become big news and destroy either our relationship with them or trust in the world. Here’s the story.
The one thing that can slow this is the recent bombings in Turkey. ISIS has made then angry with the child bombings and Turkey may divert their priority to them. That would be good, but we are slowly losing them (Turkey) as a key ally.

Looking Ahead.


This morning some in the MSM seem to have recognized that the new revelations of a tie between the Clinton State Department and the Foundation can be a problem for her. Add the 15,000 additional emails found that she had erased as “yoga and Chelsea’s wedding” turned out to contain state information and you have a real connection and issue. Plus when you view her comments to Congress and elsewhere about “scrubbing the memo’s” which turned out to be a lie and you have an issue. The add Colin Powell calling her on using his name and this should be a big story. Let’s see how the MSM covers it now.

The Clintons are slick. Did you see how they handled the Powell comments? They immediately reacted saying, as we said before we regret having a separate server and will not do it again. They try and box in the story. Trump would fight back.

Then on calls about shutting down the foundation the Clintons announce immediately that as long as she is President they will accept no foreign donations. Think about that. They can accept all they want until Jan. 20 of next year, and the day after she leaves. Does anyone think there won’t be deals done and that we can trust the Clintons?

Let’s see how big this gets. It has potential to be major. Otherwise I think she has the edge in what each side can be planning to take control.

The Clinton side will certainly ramp up “what is he hiding with his taxes”.
Obama will be out in full force all of October to drum up turnout.
Democrats a united party will be attacking with a singular message.
They will feature some prominent Republicans endorsing Hillary.
They will saturate the air waves with their large monetary advantage.
They will utilize perceived racial statements by Trump to drive voting.
They will present Trump as unstable and not to be trusted with the codes.
It will be a wave of attacks followed by another and then another.
Ads will close with lines about experienced steady leadership from Hillary.
Hillary, Bill, Obama, Biden and Kaine will all be in different places daily.

This will be tough for Trump to counter.
He has a divided party that has many leaders not backing him.
He cannot count on The Bushes, Paul Ryan, Romney or McCain.
With candidates not endorsing he will walk a tightrope in Senate races.
The same in some congressional and Governor races.
He will probably use Pence, Guiliani, Christie and Carson to counter.
His fund raising lags hers by an incredible amount. (See below)
Thus he will continue to seek free media attention as he has until now.
He will continue attacking her as a liar who cannot be trusted.
He will go after the Foundation.

Unless we are missing something the road ahead for Trump is not favorable. He needs that unforeseen event to change things.
The debates are an opportunity, but she goes in as the favorite.
And the experienced one in them and on the issues.
Email leaks are a possibility, but wow is that far out there
Health issues could arise, but doctors have proclaimed her healthy.
Terrorist attacks could impact things, but how they react would matter.

So the road ahead is daunting for the Trump team. Promising for Hillary.

Here’s one thing that could change everything. The American people.
Maybe, just maybe, the people are so upset that nothing matters and they want change. Possible?
Check this out, I bet it is a surprise to you. The MSM missed this

GOP winning registration race in key states. In Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina, more new voters identify as Republicans. Check this story out here. This could be significant.

Remember when Trump raised funds almost equal to Hillary after his convention and then when he shot his mouth off we said watch it dry up. Here’s a clip from a WSJ story on July funds raised:
“CLINTON’S CASH LEAD OVER TRUMP GREW IN JULY: Heading into the final months of the presidential election, Democrat Hillary Clinton has amassed far more financial firepower than her Republican rival, Donald Trump. Mrs. Clinton’s campaign raised $63 million in July, on top of $26 million for two joint funds with the Democratic Party and nearly $10 million raised by her friendly super PAC, according to new Federal Election Commission filings. Between her campaign, joint accounts and outside groups, Mrs. Clinton and her allies ended the month with $140 million in the bank. In contrast, Mr. Trump’s campaign raised $36 million in July, in addition to $44 million raised for his joint funds with the Republican National Committee. His campaign, joint funds and allied outside groups had $78 million on hand at the end of July.”


Catching Up


Watching the Sunday news I saw two examples of the media bias we discussed on Friday.
– On the local news Sunday AM the anchor introduced the next segment to his co host with this. They would be back with that story about “Donald Trump’s out reach to black voters” and as the camera moved back he laughed out loud. Anyone watching could see he thought it was a joke and the story had no relevance. His personal feelings influenced the reporting.
– Then an hour later watching CNN as they headed to a break the anchor said we’ll be back with a discussion on whether Barack Obama should leave his vacation and return to work because of Louisiana. Wait a minute no one said he and his family should go back to Washington. They said he should visit Louisiana. They said he should take one day/afternoon to fly to Louisiana. You see the wording of the question was designed by someone favorable to Obama and presented to make it seem highly reasonable he should stay with his family and those saying otherwise were the unreasonable ones.

Obama did comment on Louisiana though. He warned them not to discriminate on assistance.

Now the Trump outreach. It’s a great idea to seek votes in your opponents strongholds. I learned that lesson many years ago when I was working my first campaign with a really bright candidate. He challenged our incumbent opponent to debates. He told him we will debate at your club. I said to him “why would we go there, everyone will be against us”. He said, “exactly. When we walk in everyone will be against us. If we turn anyone it will be like two votes, one we gain, one he loses. We can’t lose anything, we can only win”. I learned a lesson and have never understood why Republicans haven’t gone after minority voters and other solid Democratic groups. Especially using lines like “if you’re satisfied with your life, your families lives and your children’s future then go ahead and continue voting like you are. If you want your children and grandchildren to have a better chance, change your vote.

Speaking of Trump there are rumors about his changing his mind on deporting illegal aliens. We gave him the policy months ago if you remember. They register, go on the list to become citizens, behind those who registered legally. They get to stay now, pay taxes and work. If they break they law they go. Everyone wins.

Going after minority voters is all upside. However his words were off. Look at how he said what he did. “You’re living in poverty. Your schools are no good. You have no jobs. Fifty-eight percent of your youth is unemployed. What the hell do you have to lose?”He said this to an almost one hundred per cent white audience. His words should have been I am going after the minority vote, they’re living in poverty ……..”. His closing line “One thing we know for sure is if you keep voting for the same people, you will keep getting the same — exactly the same result,” would have been very impactful.

So finally Colin Powell gets angry and calls Hillary out on using his name for her email scandal. He called her a liar in so many words. Of the versions who are you going to believe him or Hillary?

Sunday polls released. CBS news has Clinton by 6. The LA Times had Trump by 2. That’s an outlier from every poll of the last three weeks. The best guess is Clinton is 5-6 ahead right now. Obama won by that much. It’s clear Tump’s slide has subsided for now. One poll Sunday showed Iowa a possible swing state even. Clinton had been up by 3. Also some good news for Republicans, Rob Portman has taken a 7 point lead in Ohio for the Senate seat. It’s one they need to hold.

This morning New Day (CNN Morning Show) told it’s audience, “you may be wondering why we haven’t had Clinton surrogates on”. They then said, “we have asked for the past two weeks but they have not sent anyone, turning us down”. I wonder why. Could it be that at Clinton headquarters they said, don’t send anyone the CNN anchors are doing better than we can beating up Trump! Imagine if Trump didn’t send someone, it would be a non stop bashing. With Clinton no one noticed!

The Media


Trump gave another strong speech last night and in the right tone. It appears to be the influence of his new manager Kellyanne Conway. The MSM gave him credit then proceeded to show every instance over again that he should apologize for. Do they show Hillary’s lies over and over?

So the question of WHY is the media so biased and how can they not recognize it is has come up. Here is the answer.

First study after study show that 80-90% of the broadcasters and writers will vote for the Democratic candidate.  With that knowledge consider this:
When they review what news to cover or print their personal bias are there as to what is important. A new Trump story means more to them than another Hillary email one. It may not be because they are outright being prejudice, but their view of the world leads them there.

When they write the story they think they are being fair, but their personal bias leads to a story that is more attacking to the Republican or Conservative candidate. They are writing the story from their narrative.

When the reporter presents the story he/she thinks they are being fair, but the tone in key places, the emphasis they place, reflect their personal bias. That tone and emphasis changes everything.

The facial expressions may not be planned but they come across and support their personal bias.

The interaction between others on set and the comments they make reflect personal bias and come across.

In a newspaper like the NY Times the headline writers think they are doing their job and being clever, but their biases are being reflected. This is why the conservative headlines are so biting and others not so much.

Where they place the story is impacted by their bias. So a NY Times and Washington Post can find something Trump said worthy of page one; but find “another Hillary email story old news” and it goes to page ten.

So these reporters and anchors think they are being fair but they are far from it. In fact when they watch FoxNews they ridicule it as biased. Yet on Fox you will hear both sides argued far more than in the MSM and major news organizations. That semblance of fairness is unfairness to them, because they are so biased they don’t see it.

And that folks is the WHY.

Polls: We told you to keep an eye on the polls because maybe, just maybe, Trump had stopped his fall. Three days ago polls had Hillary up 10 and 8. Three released in the last day show her up 4, 2 and 5. Real Clear Polictics had her up 6.7, now it’s 5.8. Small change but significant he stopped the slide and may be gaining footing.
Don’t get too excited though he is way behind and every swing state has gone negative. Here’s a quote from a writer in the Washington Post that puts it in perspective.
We’re getting to the point where the Democratic presidential nominee is closer to winning red states than she is to losing swing states.
Aaron Blake, reporter for The Washington Post.

Remember what we told you about Jill Stein the Green Party candidate? Every vote for her is one Hillary loses. She will be on Primetime on CNN next week. Now she needs more exposure than that, but she appeals to Bernie voters.

BTW, what would the press be saying if Bush were vacationing in Cape Cod and there were was the devastation in Louisiana like we have?

Friday best guess on electoral vote standing: Hillary 348, Trump 190
On Senate, a 50-50 spilt (so VP has controlling vote).


Can Trump Move Now?


Finally you get the sense Trump has leveled off, gained some footing and maybe he is starting to recover some ground. Keep a lookout for the polls next week to see. He needs it.

Plus he has not spent any money on ads yet. He is hitting the airwaves today in key states. This should help stem the tide and help build some momentum.

The other thing to watch and see is if the with Trump not shooting himself, will the press continue their assault on him or actually turn some heat on Hillary? So far they have continued bashing him. This week on his changing of the campaign staff. Meanwhile, her email story keeps getting worse and the release of her FBI testimony to the members of Congress could be another blow. Her refusal to answer questions about the emails or anything else could move front and center. Let’s see if the press backs off him a little and turns some heat on her. She continues to avoid the press and at some point they have to address this.

The fallout of longtime Republican party members not backing Trump continues. It is far greater than I have seen in the past. Some are actually backing Hillary outright. Shocking.

The Aetna decision to drop out of Obamacare is getting some play. People are beginning to realize there may be an issue here. The 2017 rates for Obamacare are expected to be hit with a significant up-charge. The first rates come out eight days before the election. Is that too late to impact the election? It likely is, but whoever wins is going to face a mess in 2018 with healthcare. Obama delayed all increases until he was out of office.

Speaking of health on Steve Malzberg’s Newsmax show he showed a video beginning (at just before the four minutes into his show) of Hillary at Joe Biden’s boyhood home this week. He pointed out how she carefully held one hand on to something the entire time. You can see his show and video here.

Did you know?


Donald Trump gave the best speech, in the right tone, of his campaign last night in Milwaukee. He provided an alternative and choice for America and even made a case for African Americans to consider him. His words about looking at the inner cities and the conditions they are in was powerful. Then consider they are all under Democratic leadership for decades was a great point. You can almost contrast that with New York City which became livable under his friend Rudy Giuliani. His words and demeanor were on target and now the question is can he build upon it?

Also over night Trump shook up his top level campaign staff again. With 83 days ago that is usually not a good sign.

Did you know ..

  • The Obama administration rejected requests from three FBI field offices that wanted to open public corruption probes of the Clinton Foundation, according to a report that added to headaches for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. Alerted by banks to suspicious transactions, the FBI wanted to investigate conflicts of interest involving foreign donors to the foundation while Mrs. Clinton was secretary of state. But the Justice Department stopped it.
  • In a damning assessment of the Obama administration’s handling of the war against the Islamic State, a House Republican task force concluded Thursday that senior military officials scrubbed intelligence reports on the terrorist group’s gains in Iraq and Syria, giving President Obama the rosier appraisal he wanted. The task force said overly optimistic claims by the administration were based on intelligence reports that senior leaders at U.S. Central Command frequently revised over the objections of career analysts.For example, while the Islamic State, also known as ISIS and ISIL, was preparing to overrun the Iraqi city of Ramadi in the spring of 2015, the Pentagon was telling the media that the extremists were “on the defense” and “losing ground.
  • The latest hit to Obamacare? Aetna one of America’s largest health insurers said it was pulling out of most of the markets in which it was participating, citing huge losses in the past quarter. They reported that it lost $200 million in the second quarter of 2016 and as a result would participate next year in just four states’ Obamacare marketplaces: Delaware, Iowa, Nebraska and Virginia. Aetna had been offering health-insurance plans in 15 states’ Obamacare markets this year, but its retreat mirrors moves by several other major health-insurance providers in recent months. The problem here is the real bills haven’t come due yet. The healthcare bill is going to explode. It’s a wonderful gesture to ensure health care for all, but someone has to pay for the bill for 40 million people. It’s going to explode in the next two years.
  • New poll. NBC reports Hillary is up six (43-37). Most interesting is Gary Johnson is getting 11%. Remember he needs 15% to get into the debates. The five polls that will determine his numbers have been selected. (CBS, NBC, ABC, Fox and CNN polls). Johnson takes about equally from both Trump and Clinton. Jill Stein is only polling at 4%. Now she would take almost every vote from Hillary, but she can’t get to 15%. New swing state polls not good for Trump. He trials in Virginia by 8, Florida and New Hampshire by 9.
  • That last week Fox News won the cable rating race in total viewers with more than CNN and MSNBC combined? What was interesting was that MSNBC doubled the CNN primetime audience. That’s a problem for CNN.

    Watch Trumps town hall tonight to see how he does. Watch Hillary’s schedule and see how aggressive she is as the health issues continue.


Trying to get it together.


Finally Donald Trump delivers a major address, sticks to the script and actually gets positive reviews. Imagine that. You could tell he was using a telepromter one sentence in. I have never seen a candidate with such a difference in presentation. Off the cuff he is dynamic but prone to saying things that cause him issues. With the teleprompter he is somewhat awkward and unnatural. There’s no teleprompter in the debates.

His speech was clear and he laid out his plans to address immigration and a stronger vetting process. He will get much support from conservatives, while liberals will attack, but it was a good day for Trump. Add this. Trump promised to keep Guantanamo open and add others to it. At almost the same time President Obama announced the largest transfer of Guantanamo prisoners sending 15 to the United Arab Emigrates. This leaves only 61 prisoners remaining in the base. There were 242 when he took office. Remember Obama promised to close the prison in year one of his Presidency. He is determined to close it before he leaves. It is estimated one third of the released prisoners go back to the fight with the goal to kill Americans. Why would we release these hardened and determined terrorists, killers and committed individuals? One problem is the MSM won’t cover the releases much.

Khizr Khan is at it again. This time he is challenging Trump to take the naturalization test that all legal immigrants must take to become U.S. citizens. A little more and he going to begin turning people to Trump.

One thing about the Bushes. I heard Hillary answer a question by blaming George Bush for yet another mess. It got me thinking. Clinton, Carter, Obama, Reid, Pelosi and other Democratic leaders blame Bush for everything. If it’s wrong, it’s Bush’s fault. They call him dumb, a liar, incompetent, lacking character, a killer of young men he sent off and so much more. What does Bush respond? Oh “the dignity” of the office means I will not respond. Okay so they’ll continue blaming you for every ill and tie the party to you. Think of those names they call him. Yet, Donald Trump said his brother had “no energy” and the whole family is in up in arms and won’t endorse Trump. Really, your brother being called low energy” is worse than liar, incompetent and responsible for every ill the country?

The questions about Hillary’s health are growing. Stay tuned on this.

And stay tuned on Wikileaks. Julian Assange is promising a big October surprise. We’ll see.

Another Week


Editors note: This week the blog may be published at different times this week, due to travel issues.


In this blog the day after the Democratic convention ended we said that the weeks ahead would be the key to the election. Who could ID their opponent the best would get a big leg up. The question we asked is, could Hillary paint Trump as unstable and someone who could not be trusted with the Presidency; or could he paint her as so untrustworthy and a habitual liar who cannot be given the keys to the oval office. Well that question is answered and Trump made her job easy by identifying himself for her. He fed the narrative and not only helped her supporters get over the hump, he also drove some of his away. He continues to get off message and off into tangents that are good in a Republican primary but will destroy him in the general one.

The way I see it now is he is down to an unforeseen event happening to have any chance to close the gap. The excitement over the weekend about emails and release of her testimony to the FBI will not help. As stated before the Clintons go up to the line, let others cross, but not them. So unless the hacked emails have smoking guns in them (yes guns with an s. The MSM will protect one gun), I don’t see where he makes up the ground otherwise.

The Clinton and Democratic machine will now manage the media. As predicted her taxes came out she paid on the high side. See the Clintons knew she was running and didn’t want a tax release issue. Trump? He will not release his, guaranteed he did not pay anywhere near her rate. No doubt he and his tax team fought to pay as little as possible. Then there are questions about his charitable giving. You can tell that by the speeches at the convention where many like Guliani said “he gave anonymously”. They were setting up a scenario in case he does release. Now if you believe he gave anonymously or quietly and didn’t take a tax deduction you don’t know Trump.

So the Democrats will turn up the tax issue from now until election day. Obama will go on the road all of October as if he were running and talk about all he did and we can’t trust Trump. For Obama this is personal. He is still seething over Trump leading the birther issue against him.

To show you how she has outmaneuvered him consider this. With the military he had them in his pocket. Today that vote is in doubt. With Isis they came to be under Obama and Clinton. They called them the JV right? Well Trump has taken that powerful issue and turns them into founders, not in the sense they created the atmosphere for them to grow, but that they founded them. Attacking the media is a good issue for him, so what does he do? He bans some from covering him. That’s not what people want, they want him showing and pointing out the unfairness. Banning them is not a winning position. He takes winning issues and turns them in losers.

So as we start a new week, I see this getting worse and not better. Trump is planning a big speech on foreign affairs. It should be a great topic for him. Watch what happens. Hillary? She took the weekend to rest. Did nothing on the trial. Yet who won the weekend? See what I mean.

Keep that eye on Gary Johnson and the The Libertian Party. Trump with an assist from Hillary’s trust issues is driving them up. They will get the largest third party vote since Ross Perot. In his case he drove it. In this case the major party candidates are making it happen.

Short Takes

Editors note: Over the next week this report will be issued on a less frequent basis due to travel.


Dueling speeches yesterday

Hillary presented her economic plan in Detroit, where Trump did his on Monday. The difference between the two was this. She talked of the good things in Detroit and Michigan. Followed that by what she will do to fix all that is wrong. She beat upon Trumps plan as unworkable. Two very different views of the country and world from the two.

Some observations if I were advising the Trump campaign. Respond with:
1. If you think Detroit is what your city should look like, then Hillary is your candidate.
2. If you think the country is in great shape, then Hillary is your candidate.
3. If you think the person who created the situation can fix it. Hillary is your candidate.
4. If you think the person who helped create the trade issue is the one to fix it, then Hillary is your candidate.
5. If you want more of the same, Hillary is your candidate.
6. If you think the answer is more regulations and higher taxes, Hillary is your candidate.
You get the idea. The differences are clear.

Trump’s speech before the housing builders group may have been his best of the campaign. His tone, presentation, under control and devastating use of facts and a chart left you saying, “if only”.

Here’s a WSJ interactive listing of the Senate toss up seats.
Two years after Republicans took control of the chamber for the first time since 2007 they are defending 24 seats, to 10 for the Democrats. Here are 12 races to watch and the current outlook for each, based on merged ratings from four major election handicappers.

On the House side:
Rep. Xavier Becerra (D., Calif.), who has been criss-crossing the country to help support Democratic challengers, predicted Democrats will win the 30 seats needed to regain control of the House if Republican Donald Trump continues to stumble.

Could be nothing but the stories about Hillary’s health keep creeping up.

A New York Times reporter on answering questions why that paper is so biased summed up the race thusly. It is “Crooked Hillary versus Crazy Donald”, she indicated she feels much safer with Crooked. I bet a lot of people feel that way.

Did you see the story on Macy’s announcing they are closing 100 stores? How long before Donald Trump claims it’s because they stopped selling his ties and shirts?


One More Day

Editors note: Over the next week this report will be issued on a less frequent basis due to travel.


Wednesday was a day the MSM media and the Clinton machine tried hard to keep the focus on Trump and his second amendent comments. While conservatives started yelling loudly about her emails, the Clinton Foundation, the Orlando shooters father at the rally and the emerging story about how the DNC records were hacked and what happened to the leaker. There may finally be enough that the media will have to cover something. It won’t improve Trump’s image but could rock Hillary’s further.

Here’s a CNN report that questions the Department of Justice activity on Hillary and the Foundation, and even casts doubt on Hillary’s character, though they do end up with people supporting her and thrashing Trump.

Remember we told you to keep an eye out for stories about Hillary’s health. They are starting away from the MSM. Here’s one that uses the Judicial Watch email release to raise issues.

What will the Clinton camp do? Watch the call for Trump’s Taxes to build and gain coverage. This is going to come back and haunt Trump. The Democrats will raise it whenever they have trouble and want to divert the MSM.

Remember the story about Hillary getting a rapist off and laughing about it? Well the victim has come forward for the first time in 40 years. She is calling Hillary “a liar”. Where we have heard that before? (Not on the MSM of course). Here’s her story.

So far this week
Hillary’s surge has eased with all the negatives coming out that reinforce the questions of trustworthiness. Will anything stick? I doubt it. Remember we told you back when the FBI was looking into the emails, the Clintons go up to the line all the time. They let others walk over it. See  Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
Trump hasn’t gained as he continues to allow the spotlight to shine in the wrong place. On Hillary Donald, on her you need it.


As We Settle In


What started out as quieter day on the trail with things appearing to finally settle in after the two conventions and the Trump Three Week Run of Mouth, two things happened.

First Trump went off script on Hillary, Supreme Court nominees and gun rights. He clearly sounded like he was hinting violence. An experienced politician (and dare I say, someone with a thought process) would have added “at the ballot box” and not left it out there like he did.

Then we learn that at Hillary’s speech in Florida, sitting behind her in clear view was the father of the Orlando shooter. How did that happen? Imagine if the father of the Charleston shooter would have been seated behind Trump at a rally. Yet the media was all over Trump and seemed to “short circuit” on this. They may be forced to cover this a little. But pay close attention at how well the Clinton machine plays this versus Trump. You’ll see why the polls are trending as they are.

So, even on a day Trump should have been basking in the glow of his economic plan and the manner he presented it the negative news over shadowed him:
1. He went off script as noted above.
2. The hit from Senator Susan Collins saying she won’t vote for him.
3. The list of fifty prominent Republicans calling him unfit hurt all day.
4. The ability of the Clinton machine to make this election about Trump.
New polls brought the news that the Clinton bump has locked in.
1. NBC released a new one showing Hillary up 10. Monmouth has it at 13.
2. State polls all showed Hillary up:
Penn. 10, Ohio 4, Florida 1, Georgia 7, NC 1, Virginia 12, Nevada 2
No good news in any poll for Trump.

Senate races will soon become the place to watch. Republican hold a 54-46 advantage. But they have 24 seats up this year and Democrats only 10. A four seat pick up gives the Democrats control. How does it look?
16 of the 24 seats look safe for Republicans today
9 of the 10 Democratic seats look safe for them

So the race for the senate is over 9 seats, 8 of which are Republican today.
Democrats need to win 4 of those seats to control the chamber (with a Dem VP)
Which states are in trouble?
Illinois with Republican Mark Kirk a likely loser
New Hampshire, where Republican Kelly Ayotte now trails by 10.
Penn where Republican Pat Toomey now trails by 2.
Wisconsin where Republican Ron Johnson trails by 5
One state where Rep. have a pick up chance is Nevada. The Reid seat.
Then there are toss ups all Republican held seats:
Florida, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Louisiana
Other seats could become a challenge as we get closer to November.

In the weeks ahead we’ll update this and provide projections on the electoral college as of that day. Want one today?
347 for Hillary   191 for Trump.  270 wins
Still 92 days to go.

Now two more major stories may be breaking this week.

Our friend Julian Assange hinted rather clearly that the DNC young staffer murdered in DC was a Wikileaks informer. When the staffer was murdered it was called robbery. However nothing was taken. Not his wallet, iPhone or watch. Interesting. Here’s a link to the breaking story.

The second is released emails gathered by Judicial Watch that are beginning to show a possible link between the Clinton Foundation and the State Department. It will take the MSM some time to catch up to both these but they are potentially damaging.

Poll Watching


Trump stuck to the script (and teleprompter) to present his economic plan. It was strong and focused on American jobs, lower taxes, needs and growth. Democrats will hit him on two points:
1. Lowering taxes across the board means lowering “for the 1%”. They will call this unfair. They will disagree with eliminating the death tax too.
2. They will say Trump’s plan raises the national debt by “$10 Trillion dollars”.  They should know, since Obama and Clinton have done exactly that the past eight. Which by the way doubled what Presidents 1 -43 had managed to do in total.

Later this week Hillary presents her plan. Economics are a good issue to focus on, if they can stay on it and argue it at the debates it could help Trump. People want change. He portrays her as the status quo, the old guard with yesterday’s solutions. He is the change. “How can people who created the mess, fix it”? A good position to be in.

But the news for Trump is not good.

No change in the polls this week yet. The Trump fall has subsided as we had forecast now that he was back on message. But, no recovery signs yet. She is up 8-12 in every new poll and if that locks in look out. He has much ground to make up for his actions the past three weeks. No signs yet he is. Here’s a great look from a reliable source. Note the 80% probability she wins.

Electoral map looks like a landslide. Add Nevada and Virginia as places where he thought he had a chance and now trails. Even Arizona which like Georgia are Republican bases now is a two point race. He can’t be fighting here and have any chance. Here’s a look at some states.

We’ve said a number of times, a minority party cannot win. Today, fifty former Republican serving national defense leaders came out against Trump. They said he cannot be trusted in the White House. Some of the names surprising, but they did come from the Bush (41 and 43) administrations. This AM Susan Collins Senator from Maine announced she cannot back him. No good news here.

One recent poll has Hillary ahead with the black vote 99-1.

An anti-Trump Republican candiate has emerged.Evan McMullin is his name and he is an ex CIA official. I doubt he gets any traction. Here’s his story.

A Bush endorsed Trump. George P. Bush, son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, is encouraging Republicans to unite behind the Republican nominee.  He wants a future in politics and the Republican party.

Did you see where the Smith and Woods families (sons killed at Benghazi) launched a law suit against Hillary? This charge is part of the suit: “Defendant Clinton made false and defamatory statements negligently, recklessly, purposefully, and/or intentionally with actual malice… by stating that Plaintiffs were lying about Clinton having told them that the Benghazi Attack was caused by an anti-Muslim YouTube video.”

Jill Stein officially accepted the Green Party nomination this weekend. Every vote she gets is one from Hillary and she has been going hard after Bernie Sanders supporters. Read her story here:

We mentioned last week his best bet may be new email releases from Julian Assange and Wikileaks. They reiterated yesterday that they have them coming and they are damning on Hillary. Trump needs a major boost on his line she is a liar and can’t be trusted. This may be his best bet.

Lastly today. Quiet rumors continue that Hillary is not fully healthy. The whispers are getting louder and you may hear this soon. Here’s one of several stories from yesterday.

Did Someone Reach Donald?


So by Friday night someone or group had reached Trump and he finally listened. He followed a script, endorsed the candidates he was feuding with and tried to put a finger in the huge hole in the dike he created. You just had the feeling as he finished that maybe the decline will end and 15 points behind is as far it goes for now; and maybe, just maybe, he can start to recover some ground. Maybe, just maybe now, he might turn the focus on Hillary and maybe, just maybe, the MSM can talk about her continued story telling. For on Friday she again defended her story to Chris Wallace that the FBI Director verified she was truthful. Truthful as in what she told them was the same as she was telling the public. If she persists in this, then maybe, just maybe, the public will realize this is a candidate who is incapable of being truthful.

Here’s Hillary double talking, but defending her comments. Now, she did this at a news conference, her first in three months. See why she stays silent. One Sunday show, and one news conference have created major issues for her. Exactly what does “short circuited” mean?

This Trump reversal came none too soon, in fact it came weeks late. He did much damage to himself and his party. The party cannot afford to lose any senate seats, and he helped drive one candidate he endorsed Friday, Kelly Ayotte from a one point lead to a ten point deficit. She may not recover. He drove the blue states he needs to turn from close to wide Hillary leads. He even drove safe or leaning Republican states like Georgia from an advantage to where he trails by four in the latest polls. He has much ground to make up in the next 93 days.

Had he continued down that path he was on it was raising the possibility that a third party like the Libertarians would not only get in the debate but challenge him. Now I don’t think they would pass him, because he does have a floor. I would think Donald’s bottom line is 30%. I think that number will back him no matter what he does. If he gets there, Hillary is so unpopular that I think 50% would never vote for her. So a third party could get into the high teens. Watch this going forward as the MSM will catch up to this.

Stay tuned to see what Trump we get going forward. That statement alone illustrates the major issue he has. Do people trust and want such a person leading the nation and with his finger on the button? He has to show a different side and reassure them. The good news for him is that he can do that easier than Hillary can change her imagine as someone who has trouble with the truth. If he does he can be competitive again, if not …..

Here’s an analysis on the third party candidacies if you want an overview on possible impact:

One big advantage in October for Hillary is President Obama will be devoting his time to campaigning for her in key states and districts. He is popular with a devoted following, great on the hustings, and fully committed to defeating Trump whom he despises. With him, Bill and her VP they can hit four places at once. No past Republican luminaries have endorsed Trump must less go on the road for him.

Interesting Clinton campaign attack on Sunday shows and in MSM. They are attacking Melania as possibly being here illegally. Imagine that, the Democrats have found an immigrant they are against. Lucky she is in a sanctuary city.

Finally here’s a story you probably didn’t hear anything about. Why do you think this one has had no publicity?