Okay so Donald Trump is officially the Republican nominee. Day two was a good one. Christie gave the speech he was supposed to four years ago. Donald Jr. was wonderful. What do I see ahead? You may not like nor agree with this, but here goes.
The Republican party is the minority one in the U.S. The demographics of it is a declining one. They have failed in the past 40+ years to recognize the need to expand and reach out. Not even change their philosophy to as much as articulate why they would be a better choice.
More states have turned blue over recent elections and to win the Republicans have no room for error. Think about reliable Republican states of the past like Virginia, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico which have gone blue twice and lean that way again. Think North Carolina which spilt the two Obama elections and is a toss up. The Democrats have such an imposing electoral college advantage that to beat them requires an inside straight. 2012 was close right? Obama had 332 electoral votes and Romney 206. Not very close. Think about this. The Democrats start with lock non competitive states like California, New York, Illinois and Massachusetts. That’s 115 of the 270 you need. Add states like Connecticut, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Maryland and Delaware which are not competitive and you add another 70 electoral votes. In truth they start the election with well over 225 in their camp. The Republican needs to basically run the table to win.
Add a divided party to the demographic and values change. Think about John Kasich the governor of the ultimate swing state (Ohio) who is outside the hall but not going in. He raised his hand to support the winner and is outside. Look at the two living ex Republican Presidents not being there. Nor the last two nominees (Romney and McCain). Look at the former Governor of another must win state, Florida. Look at the house leader and what he said yesterday “Trump is not my kind of conservative”.
So, a party on the wrong side of the demographic change is strike one. Strike two is the minority party is divided. Strike three is the MSM is so anti that they carry the ball for the Democrats. You see it everyday. Yesterday all they did was talk about fifty words they said were plagiarized and nothing about the Mothers, Fathers, soldiers, and hero’s who spoke about how this government has failed them. This AM the network morning shows still talked as much about the “plagiarized” speech as they did about day two in their opening segments. The MSM carries the ball for liberal thought and that is too hard to overcome.
Here’s the really negative news. This is a year where over 70% of the people think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Think about that. Think about what is going on in the streets. Add a failed foreign policy and all the terrorist activity we hear about. Then top that off with the fact the Democratic party is nominating a candidate 66% of the country says is untrustworthy and does not tell the truth. Add this. We all care about the police right? Another officer killed in his squad car last night in Kansas City. Republicans honored the police this week. Do you know who is speaking at Hillary’s convention? Michael Brown’s Mother. The Michael Brown of the false narrative “Hands Up Don’t Shoot”.
And yet we can’t win, and I don’t think be competitive. I dare say it may be the end of the party and time for a new one that is more open on social issues while maintaining the strength of our foreign policy. Let’s see how this unfolds and hope I am wrong. But if with all that the party fails it is game over.
Here’s three links you might want to read. The first is President Bush (43) on his fear he will be the “last Republican President”. The second is a link to Frank Luntz’s study on how the party has lost the millennial generation and why. (College professors are making them socialists). The third is Ryan’s dig at Trump this week.