Time To Move On…

So where are we? It’s Time to move on.

The President’s team will continue to find irregularities and we as a nation should take up those issues. Now, what they will find will be far short of overturning results in four states that would be necessary.
However, we must resolve to fix the wrongs they identify as we go forward.

We need to address false votes, deceased people voting and any other other forms of cheating. Any invalid vote decreases a valid one, and every person in the nation should be dedicated to correcting it. We need to fix the system.

now some questions to answer

Let’s start with defining what an election and election period is.

Traditionally we had “election day.” Schools closed, many businesses did, and almost all gave people time off to vote.
You went to your voting place, showed ID and voted.
If you were going to be out of town or unavailable you applied for an absentee ballot and got it in by election day, either by drop off or mail.
All that changed this year.

Voting in some states began in September. That is before any debates and any world events that can occur for ninety days.
Does that make sense to anyone, or does that lend itself to fraud opportunites?

We mailed ballots in many states to people whether or not they requested one.
Does that lend itself to ballot harvesting and fraud?

Then we said you don’t need to have it in on election day. In cases like NC they were good to arrive until yesterday. Wait, they started voting in September, why is ten days later okay?
Now the Supreme Court voted 4-4 (thank you John Roberts) to allow late arrival and that it was okay if the signatures didn’t match.

Thus, issue one post election is to decide what is it. Election day? Election Week? Election Quarter?

Mark me down as for purging the rolls to assure registered voters only vote, and going back to election day with absentee ballots only.

what will history say of This election

If this election were by the old rules, what do you think the outcome would have been?
Would we have the record number of votes that we did? If the election were election day (with requested absentee ballots) due by election day, what would the results be?

The historians will study this election cycle and have a field day providing analysis. Here’s my thoughts:

Republicans have an issue. They have lost the popular vote in 5 of the last 6 elections. They need to broaden their base. President Trump started doing this with minorities, but a far broader reach out is needed.

The Democratic party is heading for an internal fight, the progressives against the moderates. President-elect Biden is going to begin encountering this in filling his cabinet, and it will get wider as he proceeds. The divide was covered up in the campaign, and the media avoided any mention of it. The emergence is underway.

President Trump will go down in history as a historic figure. His single term will be marked by change and impact. The question now is how does he exit the stage?
We are already hearing he wants to run in 2024. Bad idea. Exit stage right Mr. President.

The shame of the President’s desire to be President is he was willing to do almost anything – except control himself.
Historians will note that if he had controlled his tweeting and unfiltered utterances he would have won reelection. If he wants to know why he lost there were two reasons.
The first he can see in the mirror.
The second was the biased media. One he could control, one he couldn’t.
He couldn’t overcome both.

Now the President must decide if he is going to turn the nation against him in this process that cannot possibly succeed, or exit gracefully, recommending a commission to fix the voting process. We all agree that deceased citizens should not be voting. Make that the issue and people will agree we need a better way.

If he continues down the current path and doubles down, he will put the Georgia run off, so vital, in jeopardy. Chuck Schumer gave the Republicans all they need with his “next we win Georgia and then change the United States.” That’s a winning message for the right. Only President Trump can undo it. Will he?

have a great weekend.

Election Fraud?

person dropping paper on box

was there fraud?

This was a question we have gotten from many readers. My answer, there is fraud in campaigns. Go back in history and research Tammany Hall, or Richard Daley and the Chicago Machine in 1960. In a close election you are always left wondering. And yes, history is full of deceased residents voting.

However, in this election I think the gap is too wide to make a difference. So my answer to the inquiries is yes, we will find some irregularities, but not nearly enough to put the election in jeopardy.

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be inaugurated on January 20th.

donald trump can look around

Donald Trump can look around for the the reasons he lost. There are many we would agree with him on, like the media bias. In the end, though, he has to look in the mirror. He provided everyone far too much ammunition.

What if, as suggested here and elsewhere, he had stopped tweeting endlessly unchecked after his inauguration? Imagine having a control over what came off his phone so reason could prevail. Would that have made a difference?

Imagine if had acted right in debate one. He lost the election that night.

Imagine if he would not have impulsively cancelled debate two.

Imagine if he would have focused the campaign and rallies on the issues, keeping it simple rather than the shows he put on. Would that have made a difference?

Why he didn’t lay out simply this is where he stood, versus where his opponent did. The question should have been what kind of America do you want?
Want examples?

Do you want the Iran Nuclear agreement back in place, or the continued peace process we have been achieving? Because the process ends if we put the agreement back in place. Middle eastern peace agreements never came up. Why? Biden was not going to discuss them. Trump failed to do so.

Do you want the Paris Climate agreement back in place, where we do so much the next ten years and the largest polluters like China and India are free to do what they want? And we pay the bill? Or, do you want a fair agreement?

Do you want to fund the World Health Organization (WHO) again while they mislead us on the virus to protect China?

The Trump campaign did not do this. They were too busy telling us how great he was. They blew it.

Now:

Now they better exit stage right with class. If they drag this out when it’s clear they lost, they are going to cost the Republicans the two seats in the Georgia run off.
If they do that, all the hype about the Blue Wave not being real, will be untrue. Because at the point the Democrats will have the White House, the House and the Senate.

now from the other side – spare me

“The people of the nation have spoken. They’ve delivered us a clear victory,” Mr. Biden said. “To make progress, we have to stop treating our opponents as our enemies. This is [the] time to heal in America.”
Really?
For four years your party called the 2016 election a fraud. You investigated and found the collusion charges a lie. You impeached on what? It started before he took office. How many of your house members failed to attend the inauguration because the President was “illegitimate?”

Your electoral numbers will likely be exactly what Donald Trumps was in 2016. Exactly.
Now it’s a mandate and the people have spoken, and all should be quiet and get behind you?
Spare me, though the media will support you.

Much more to come, just wanted to address the fraud questions today.

have a great day.

Aftermath…

let’s do some post analysis

Some will say that it is too soon to do post analysis, but I disagree. The drama for me ended when the AP and FoxNews called Arizona for VP Biden. I told those around me I see no way to 270 for President Trump and, in fact, see Joe Biden exceeding 300 electoral votes when all this is over.
So why and now what?

First off, the Democrats can still control the White House, House and Senate. I know you’re hearing that Republicans won the senate, but that’s false. They will end up with 50 seats, while the Democrats will have 48. Where’s the other two? In a Georgia run off the first week of January.
The money, the campaigning and the activity here will be fierce. Because of the Covid there will be mail balloting again. If anyone says either seat is a lock for either side, I direct them to view the Georgia results this week.

Now Republicans gained House seats. Amazingly they are still counting ballots and we don’t know how many. Six so far they say. I think in the end they will double that, but still far short of House control. The Democrats own the House and will pick the leader and control the agenda.

Buckle up for the January run off in Georgia, because we may yet see the leftist agenda have no political party constraints.

Why did we see what we did this week?

There will be plenty of time for analysis, so I will give a topline here:

First, the mailing of ballots changed the election turnout. The Democrats saw the opportunity and executed behind it. The President misplayed this.
Consider this, only 30% of his voters said they were “enthusiastic Biden voters.” Would they have flocked to the polls and waited in line to vote?

Second, Donald Trump motivated a base and turned off a lot of people. He was his best advocate and worst enemy. His tweets and words hurt him constantly. More on this later.

Third, the Coronavirus was poorly managed by the President and brilliantly done by VP Biden and staff. In the end there is nothing that Biden would have done or will do differently than the President, outside wearing a mask more. Yet he was able to present the President as managing it poorly.
The President, with his ego, always tried to downplay the virus as opposed to managing it.

Fourth, the President’s performance in debate number one was instrumental. It may have cost him the election. Then impulsively cancelling debate number two, even if virtual, was just a bad move. All the proof you need is debate three.

The media played a large part. They despised the President and went after him for four years. On the other hand they allowed VP Biden to run a low energy campaign from his house as if he were doing much more.
Remember 92% negative coverage has to have an impact. It was unwarranted.

Next

Get ready for the internal Democrat war. The progressive left wing against the moderates who have been quiet until now. That’s about to change.

The Republican party will have its own war. It will be the Trumpers against the never Trumpers. The Hogans, Romneys and Snyders are going to find it hard to reenter the party as if nothing happened.

Much more to follow. have a great weekend.

Tomorrow…

i voted sticker lot

its time to vote

In a few hours the campaign noise will end and the people in Dixville Notch, N.H. will cast the first in nation votes. We will be on our way to knowing what was right:

Were the professional pollsters who never deviated from showing a clear Joe Biden win right? In fact, today one of the final polls released by the the WSJ and NBC said he is ahead by double digits.
These organizations have risked their credibility after the 2016 debacle and need to be right this time. They said they adjusted and have it right.

On the other side we saw the enthusiasm and devotion to rally with the President at all hours and in any condition. You saw car and boat caravans formed out of no where. You can’t buy that, or deny what you saw.

So what’s right? Is it the pollsters or your eyes?
Maybe its both.
Maybe, just maybe there is unquestioned enthusiasm for the President and the willingness of his supporters to pay any price to support him.
Maybe too, there are a majority tired of the the rhetoric and just want to vote him out. They are not Joe Biden enthusiasts, just anti President Trumpers.

The question is which one is more. The pollsters say the later. We’ll see.

here’s what to watch

The early signs will be there as polls close and where Real Clear Politics is today:
Ohio (T +0.2), Florida (B +1.0), North Carolina (T +0.6), Georgia (B +0.4).
These four close early and are must wins for Donald Trump. RCP says they are all too close to call, within a point of difference. Watch for a trend.

Then the next hour comes a few more must wins for Trump:
Iowa (T+1.4) and Texas (T+1.2)
Now, if he holds all six of those there is one more closing later he needs to hold:
Arizona (B+1.0)

If he does all that he has 258 electoral votes and the attention turns to the rust belt, where the pressure is then on Joe Biden to hold ground. Let’s look at those states and where RCP says they stand.
Keep in mind that PA (20) and Michigan (16), if lost to Trump, would mean the election.
PA (B+4.3), Michigan (B+5.1)
These states, WI (B+6.1) ten electoral votes, MN. (B+4.3) ten electoral votes, and Nevada (B+3.3) six electoral votes, do not have enough electoral votes alone to swing the election.

There you have it.
The President wins all those states that RCP has as toss ups, he still needs twelve electoral votes somewhere. He loses Arizona and he needs 22.
So the road for VP Biden is much easier.

the early voting advantage

Conventional wisdom is clear that Joe Biden holds large leads among those who have voted early .
President Trump holds a big lead among those who say they will vote tomorrow.

I repeat again, that the strategy to get people to vote early may well prove to be the difference in this election. If this were a simple go to the polls on election day vote, I think the President wins. The make it easy early vote is clearly driving participation for Biden.

Plus, wait until tomorrow and voters go to the polls and see how long the lines are. There will be six foot spacing and lines will stretch a long long way. If one person decides not to vote, is ill, or gets tied up, who loses that vote? When you have options and you limit your voters to one day, one way, you can only lose. It was a poor choice by the Republicans.

now this being 2020

In this year of the unexpected, how surprised would you be to see a 269-269 tie in the electoral vote?
Can it happen? It can in lots of scenarios. Here’s a few:
I said in the above the President holds ground and has 258 electoral votes. Okay, what if he wins Minnesota or Wisconsin then? They are each 10 electoral votes. That gives him 268.
Remember now, that Nebraska and Maine divide their votes by congressional district. If he and Biden spilt those two, with the above scenario, we have a 269 -269 tie.
Want another way?
Arizona goes to Biden and Pennsylvania goes to Trump. That’s 267 for the President and he wins the two single congressional districts. Tie.

Possible? Hey it’s 2020.

closing out then

In our final blog before the election, what so we see?
Hard to believe the pollsters are so off again. I see a closer race than they predict, but the President (as any Republican does) has to pull off too many inside straights to get over the top.
The senate will swing with this too. It could be 50-50 after it’s over. In that case the VP of the winning party will cast the deciding vote.
The House will not change at all. In fact there is as good a chance the Democrats can increase their numbers as lose seats.

Crazy? That’s why people vote and they count the numbers. Predictions and pollsters only forecast, the people speak.

have a great and make sure you vote.