ELECTIONS AND FORECAST

Not much coverage

On the two special congressional elections yesterday, and one was interesting.

In Wisconsin the heavily Republican district voted for a party regular to replace Sean Duffy. So the seat was a hold.

In California we had an interesting result. It appears the Republican won this Democratic seat. Mail in ballots are still coming in because of the Coronavirus. The Republican is ahead by 12,000 votes with all received votes counted, so it looks like he will win.
The pick up is the first in California for a Republican since 1998.

So a good night for Republicans, but they shouldn’t get too excited. As of this writing I think their senate majority is in great jeopardy this November.

Let’s take a look.

Republicans currently hold a 53-to-47 advantage in the Senate.
— However, they are defending 23 seats while the Democrats only 12.

Now some seats are looked upon as locks, but when you examine the ones up for grabs here’s what you will see:

There is one seat the Republicans should pick up – Alabama.

There are six of the Democrats that have a real chance to win.
— Arizona, Colorado, Maine,Montana, Georgia and North Carolina.

Plus, right now the Democratic challengers are ahead in polls at:
Arizona, Colorado and Montana.

They are tied or razor close at:
Maine and North Carolina.

And with the stock scandal and primaries in Georgia where two seats are up, they may well take one.

So assuming Alabama switches to Republican, the Dems need four seats to get to 50/50. Three look strong today, two are right there and two more possible.

There are others that can join this list. Kansas, the reddest of red states voted for a Democratic Governor last election. The losing Republican is the candidate for the senate. He could well lose again.

You need funds to run for the senate. Well in the first quarter was a boon in fundraising for Democrats, with 10 challengers out-raising their GOP opponents in seats currently held by Republicans:
Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, North Carolina and South Carolina.
The only closely watched race where the Republican incumbent raised more cash than the Democrat was Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa.

The Senate is up for grabs this November and the strength of the top of the ticket will make a difference. The Coronavirus makes everything questionable.

STAY WELL.

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