Focus…

The nation, indeed the world, has been focused on the Coronavirus and market impacts this week. Everything else has taken a back seat and we’ve avoided filling up your in boxes with additional news and analysis. So on this Friday we’ll provide a quick recap on what we see ahead tomorrow in S.C. and then on Super Tuesday.

South Carolina and beyond

The headlines Sunday will be about Joe Biden’s comeback. As we outlined in our post debate analysis the former VP is going to win handily here. He will garner headlines and is scheduled for appearances on the Sunday news shows. He needs to capitalize quickly because in many of the Super Tuesday states he is not competitive or leading. So you will see an all out 48 hour blitz as he tries to establish himself back as the lead to stop Senator Sanders.

Senator Sanders is working to finish as close (in second place) in Carolina as possible. Tom Steyer was running close to him, but we think post debate he is dropping. On Super Tuesday Senator Sanders is going all out to knock Elizabeth Warren, his lone left lane opponent out of the race. He is spending time today and advertising heavily in Massachusetts. He knows if he wins there then she has to leave the race.

His ideal situation is she goes, but Buttigieg, Bloomberg and Klobuchar stay and divide their votes with VP Biden. That opens it all up for him.

South Carolina is not going to help that. Bloomberg is not on the ballot and Buttigieg and Klobuchar are at the bottom of the polls. After Super Tuesday it is hard not to see Klobuchar leaving and Mayor Pete will be on the ropes.

So down to three, Biden, Bloomberg and Sanders. Get ready for the attacks on Sanders about to hit. They were avoiding doing that to try and keep the party united, but it didn’t work. It is going to get nasty. Very nasty.

That’s it, let’s see how it goes tomorrow and Monday we’ll take a deeper look at Super Tuesday.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND. STAY HEALTHY!

The S.C. Debate…

Early in the debate I was asked what I thought and my answer was, “so far it appears the winner will be whoever loses less”. It was early chaos.
At the debates end I have some clear thoughts and predictions.

First the moderators lost.
They lost control of the debate early and never really recovered.

Second, Joe Biden survived.
His one clear gaffe (150 million Americans killed by guns) was overlooked. If one candidate had challenged him it on it, Joe would have been done. It just passed though. The other one that could have harmed him was the challenge with Amy Klobuchar on who wrote the bill. That passed scrutiny later too and I doubt it gets any play today. So he got lucky twice.
Thus with a tougher and funnier demeanor the VP survived and now will win the South Carolina Primary Saturday and advance to Super Tuesday. The other positive for Biden was the dismantling of Tom Steyer who had invested heavily in the minority vote for Saturday. His performance will see a large departure of support and Biden will be beneficiary number one.

For Tom Steyer this is it.
He can go back to funding the Democratic House candidates. He was out of place on that stage.

I think this is it for Amy Klobuchar too.
She may be on the short list for VP possibilities and I think she set herself up for a viable run in 2024 if the Democrats don’t win this year.

Now Bernie Sanders.
He was in the hot seat early as the others recognized the need to stop him. My observation was he doesn’t come across as very deep. His answers go back to the same themes and billionaire bashing. He has his base, and they are loyal. He just didn’t pick up points in S.C. this Saturday and the race is now extended.

For Mike Bloomberg and all his prep.
He had to get this debate right and was only slightly better. His spending on Super Tuesday will help (remember he is not on the S.C. ballot). But after these two debates his numbers will fall. Mike’s campaign is in trouble now. The press will not be kind to him. I don’t think he can outspend all that.

Mayor Pete Buttigieg was himself.
He sounds like an adult in the room but what does he say? His most memorable lines might be “they can’t win”. He needed to help himself with the minority vote in S.C. and didn’t last night. As stated above those leaving Steyer are likely going to Biden.

Finally Senator Warren.
As we talked about yesterday she is the same lane as Senator Sanders and needed others to take him out for her. She couldn’t do it herself for fear of alienating that base. That didn’t happen to the extent she needed, so no progress here. She did rant at Bloomberg a lot and took him out for Biden. She may be the best debater on the stage but her tone leads to a thought she is like a run on sentence.

Bottom line is:
Biden wins Saturday. Going into Super Tuesday it’s Sanders and Biden with Bloomberg hoping his ad spending produces a miracle.
As of this writing I don’t any of the others being viable after Super Tuesday.
Wouldn’t that be something, three 77+ year old white males fighting it out.

HAVE A GREAT DAY.

The Debate Tonight…

It hasn’t gotten the hype of last weeks debate but tonight promises to be more of the same — albeit with a different target – and major consequences at stake.

Tonight will be fascinating to watch as the target has to be Bernie Sanders. He comes out of Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada as the clear leader. He pulls an upset in S.C. Saturday and he goes three days later into Super Tuesday as unstoppable. The chance to stop him is tonight.

THE CANDIDATES TONIGHT:

Mike Bloomberg was off the trial for days preparing and he has to stop Bernie, even though he is not on the ballot in S.C. He will be better prepared and use his financial knowledge to attack. He will be ready to counter Sanders tonight. They will go at each other.

Joe Biden has to be feeling the heat as Bernie has closed the SC poll gap. He is in a must win here. If Bernie takes him out that could be it for Joe.
This may his last chance, in his career, to win a single presidential primary or caucus. Last night in a speech he asked South Carolinians to “vote for me for senate”. He is prone to gaffs but can’t make one like that tonight.

Pete Buttigieg has to know his lane is the center and he has stop Bernie here to be the alternative to VP Biden. He will continue attacking Bloomberg too with his “we should at least nominate a Democrat” line. He is running fifth or sixth here and a poor showing will highlight his minority voter issues and the air will be coming out of his balloon.

Amy Klobuchar knows by now her momentum was cut by Mayor Pete’s attacks in the last debate. She may very well attack Bernie and try to bury Buttigieg along the way. You can sure she will be prepared to talk his record as Mayor of South Bend. Her challenge is to assure she maintains the dignity and the respect she has earned. She will be a leading VP possibility if she does and sets herself up for 2024.

Senator Warren has to walk carefully. She needs Bernie stopped and she is the left alternative. So, she will tread carefully on her Bernie attacks and not let up on Bloomberg, Biden or Buttigeg. She is walking a fine line here. Her task, standout while not angering Bernie’s supporters. Not as easy as attacking Bloomberg last time.

Tom Steyer is in this debate and he has spent heavily in S.C. He is actually third (in double digits) in the pre polls. He has no reason to hold back tonight because it ends here without an upset. His argument has to be why he got in this race (because he thought no announced candidate could beat Trump). If he’s serious he has to stop Biden tonight.

That leaves Bernie Sanders. Tonight he is target one. He and his team know it. The question is this. Will they attack like the Republicans will in November? The warm words for Fidel’s Cuba. The glowing tributes to Venezuela before it imploded. The embrace he gave the old Soviet Union. Will they call him on all that and defend capitalism? Will they say his policies would destroy America as it did the others?
Senator Sanders will counter that he wants a “fairer America” and “we can do better”. He will be prepared. If he is prepared enough, or able to withstand the onslaught and win Saturday, then we are on to probable showdown in November that will be historic.

One last comment on this. How did the Democratic Party get here?
They avoided attacking Bernie up to now. Why? They thought he was so far left that the people in the party would take him out and they could avoid alienating them. They miscalculated. Their rhetoric and anti administration rants have driven some in the party that far left. Maybe it’s a minority of the party, but it’s a vocal minority. Now they face reaping what they have sown. They have to stop Sanders or he marches off leaving them behind.
Then add this.
In those swing districts that in 2018 swung the House to a Democratic majority, how do those candidates feel? Right now they are running on the fact they voted to impeach the President and their standard bearer could be Sanders. You think they’re happy? Wonder what they are rooting for tonight.

So get ready. Eight o’clock tonight the bell rings.

Aftermath, Trump and More

The aftermath of the debate was predictable.
Shock at the Bloomberg performance and some real fear among Democratic party leaders that Bernie Sanders could win this thing.
Think about the things you are hearing about Sanders and socialism today. It seems like a fair amount doesn’t it? Then think about this, no one has opened up on him about the philosophy.
His opponents are walking carefully even adopting some of his polices. Democratic leaders know if he is nominated the President and his allies will unleash and hold back nothing.
They know the outcome of that and it’s not good for their party.

Now the President for his part, largely because of his demeanor and uncontrolled ego, seems intent on making this close. Did anyone see his opening last night at the Colorado rally? His ego couldn’t take a Fox News host (Neil Caputo) having a guest that said the President was a bad debater. He ripped FoxNews, ripped some hosts, ripped the reporter and ripped their opinion.
He got to the point he made his staff give him instant poll results from the 2016 primaries and elections. He proceeded to go through them one by one reading how he won each. Now instant polls (as an example he recited Drudge’s) after an event are reflective of their audience. Their statistical validity is zero.
He went through about ten and all he did was feed his ego and embarrass the others who were in the debates with him. Others from his own party, whose loyalty he wants and needs. Mentioning 2016 polls, stating names like Cruz and Rubio, all because some guest said he did not win the 2016 debates on some Fox show, illustrates a dangerous ego.
What other respected President in your lifetime would do that three years later, much less give credence to a single reporters view?

And by the way, he then brought up a Fox show he likes, Lou Dobbs. He said that Dobbs had called him “one of the great American Presidents.” Then later Dobbs said “he was better than Reagan” and now Dobbs says “he is better than Washington and Lincoln.”
Mr. President, we are better off today than we were when you came into office, but your mannerisms and ego are deterrents.
Here’s another opinion, you are not better than Washington, Lincoln or Reagan.

news briefs:

So the judge sentences Roger Stone to 40 months. Wait, that’s exactly what the DOJ and AG Barr recommended. All that noise from the media and those four prosecutors and the judge (an Obama appointee) agree?
Every court experienced judge and attorney thinks this is right.
Ask yourself about the noise you heard and why.

The Democratic debate ratings were a record for the party (19.5 million). Only the first Republican debate (on Fox by the way) in 2016 had more viewers (24 million).
Now did the debate help the candidates and the party?

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that VP Biden has lost a substantial part of his black-voter support. That was his anchor.
He is now running about even with Senator Sanders. Good news for Bernie and very bad for Biden.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Mayor Buttigieg drew single-digit support in the poll.

Here’s another interesting poll released from Yahoo/YouGov:
Is there a difference between “socialism” and “democratic socialism”?
38% of registered U.S. voters say the two terms are “the same.”
The survey found that 62% of Republicans, 41% of independents and 16% of Democrats agree.
38% said the two terms are “different.”
18% of Republicans, 34% of independents and 58% of Democrats.
24% were not sure.
20% of Republicans, 25% of independents and 26% of Democrats.

Remember the mess we told you that was developing in Georgia with Congressman Doug Collins annoucing he is going to run against recently appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler?
Well the President wants to avoid that at all costs and yesterday he indicated he was going to nominate Collins to head the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). An opening he created by firing the current head.
Georgia primary problem solved, right? It was until this morning when Collins appeared on Maria Bartiromo’s morning show and said he didn’t want the job.

Do you remember former congressman, now AG of Minnesota, Keith Ellison? A Bernie Sanders supporter, he tweeted this: “I have never seen @BernieSanders supporters being unusually mean or rude. Can someone send me an example of a ‘Bernie Bro’ being bad?”
Well he got an immediate response from Congressman Steve Scalise who was shot on that baseball field by a Bernie supporter:
“I can think of an example.”
Did you see that on the MSM?

Russia, Russia, Russia. Did you see the coverage yesterday and today on Russia’s plans to interfere on behalf of Donald Trump in the 2020 election?
It bordered on hysteria. Let’s remember these facts:
The Russians, the Chinese and others interfere in elections all over.
So do we.
Second, we spent $45 million and three years (Mueller included) to investigate and say the Trump team did not collude with the Russians in 2016.
Third, can anyone tell me why the Russians would want Donald Trump and his military build up to win again over “Democratic Socialist” Bernie Sanders?

Did you see this report on John Bolton? It should have been headline news:
“In audio obtained by ABC News, John Bolton said during remarks at Vanderbilt University that his testimony ‘would have made no difference to the ultimate outcome’ of impeachment and said he can ‘sleep at night because I have followed my [conscience].’ … Bolton says the House committed ‘malpractice’ and ‘made a mess’ of the impeachment inquiry, calling it ‘grossly partisan.'”

You no doubt heard all the criticism over the President’s pardons and clemencies this week. The NYT reported it this way:
“All 11 recipients had an inside connection or were promoted on Fox News. “
Now didn’t you hear more about these eleven than when Obama pardoned the leader of the FALN the group who blew up buildings and killed people? Oh at the same time he freed Chelsea Manning after seven years of a thirty-five year sentence. I bet you heard more about Governor Blagojevich’s pardon after the same time of a fourteen year sentence. Why is that?
Finally you heard so much about Trump’s pardons, well check these numbers on pardons for the past seven Presidents and ask again why the noise is so loud now:
Carter: 556
Reagan: 406
G.H.W. Bush: 77
Clinton: 459
G.W. Bush: 200
Obama: 1,927
Trump: 26

Wishing you a great weekend.

BOOM Goes The Bloom…

BOOM,, there goes $400 million dollars out the window. It took about ten minutes. The Great Democratic Centrist Hope was beaten to a pulp in the first hour. We have never seen a debate beat down so dramatic and clear. Let’s start there. Mike Bloomberg lost, and lost BIG.
Here’s our analysis for all:

Senator Elizabeth Warren won the night. She led the charge and clealy dominated Mayor Bloomberg. That’s her good news. The negative for her was this. She is in the lane for votes with Senator Sanders and she never touched him. So she won the night but not the votes she needs for the nomination. She needed to get Sanders and shot Bloomberg.

Senator Sanders won because he was untouched and everyone destroyed his number one opponent Mike Bloomberg. His answers appealed every time to his base. He entered the debate in the lead and left not losing any. A good outcome for him.

VP Biden survived and likely gained a little. He may have had the least air time and even cut himself off a few times with “I am out of time,” but here’s why he advanced. His appeal now and all in effort is with the minority vote. He was losing some of that to Bloomberg. The Bloomberg implosion will stop and likely reverse that. It helps Biden.

Mayor Pete was on the attack all night. He may have gone too far with Senator Klobuchar. I don’t think he hurt himself, but I’m not sure he helped himself. At some point ask yourself this question. What does Buttigieg stand for? What are his signature issues other than he is not them? I am not sure.

Senator Klobuchar off her performance in the last debate surged into contention. Last night Mayor Pete put a pin in that balloon. She looked frustrated and angry with the Mayor and it was a not a look that is going to continue driving her forward. She knew she needed to recover some and was in the Spin Room immediately and on every station answering questions.

There you have it.
In the end Bernie Sanders locked up the Nevada Caucus this Saturday. He gains more momentum and is now the clear leader. Next week when they debate in South Carolina he will be the one the others are after. They better get him there or he heads into Super Tuesday with a chance to put himself into position to begin locking things down. Watch for the attack on him. Things like he indicated that AOC and others will have a role in his cabinet. They have to get him. They cannot leave openings like that for President Trump to attack.

What about the others?

Bloomberg won’t quit. He will likely double down in ads and truly prepare for next week’s debate. He will likely get many woman from his company to endorse and speak for him. He may even get one with a non disclosure to do so. When you have that much money you have a chance.
Warren has to figure out how to supersede Sanders in that lane or she falters. She has to stop Sanders or she is stopped.
Joe Biden has bet it all on SC, and he has to debate well next week and drive people’s motivation to get out and vote for him.
The others are on life support here and will be looking for the debate next week for an opening. Senator Klobuchar may well come to bury Mayor Pete. Watch that one.

What a change in a day.

All Eyes On Vegas…

the democrats

It doesn’t matter what you read and hear all day today, all eyes and ears are on the debate in Vegas tonight. The reason for all the excitement is the entrance of Mike Bloomberg and how the others react and attack.

Going into the debate Senator Sanders has clearly separated himself from the pack. He is ahead everywhere and in every national poll. The question is what “center” Democratic party candidate emerges to challenge him. Is it Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar or can VP Biden make a comeback. The betting this AM, before the debate, says it comes down to Sanders and Bloomberg.
Tomorrow we’ll have a better handle as Bloomberg is not on Saturday’s ballot for the Nevada Caucus or next week’s South Carolina Primary. The challenge for the others is to break through in those two and establish themselves. By Super Tuesday (March 3) we’ll know who the contenders are.

By the way the early voting in Nevada was at record numbers and the enthusiasm seemed to be for Senator Sanders. Reading the tea leaves we see him heading for a big victory on Saturday. Remember the early voters didn’t even wait for the debate tonight.

other news

Can you believe Iowa is not final yet?
Yesterday the Iowa Democratic party said they completed a recount and changed results in 29 precincts. However, they said no delegate changes were made. Senator Sanders campaign immediately said he would request a more intensive recount.
Wonder if they’ll settle Iowa before the national convention this summer.

Mike Bloomberg said he will sell his company Bloomberg LP if elected. 
He said he will put the financial-data and media company he co-founded in a blind trust and eventually sell it if elected.

Recognizing Sanders momentum the Bloomberg team is targeting him:
One ad is accusing Sanders of dumping waste in Latino communities and making money off of it. 
The second tries to get to some of the main misgivings centrist Dems have with Sanders, namely:
That his plans are too aggressive, and too expensive.
“Socalist Bernie Sanders promises the world. But at what cost? Sixty trillion in new spending. Losing our private health care. Largest middle-class tax hike ever. The cost? Another four years of Donald Trump.”
Here is what they said as reported in Politicio:
“Despite over 50 years in public life, Bernie Sanders has never been fully vetted. The Big Tent Project will shed light on his record of politically toxic policy proposals starting in Nevada and South Carolina. Voters need to understand that his well-known plans to kick union employees off their health care plans and end all private insurance, raise middle-class taxes and double the size of the government, and his less well-known radical views, like his efforts to dump nuclear waste in Hispanic communities, will repel many general-election voters.
“EITHER THIS STUFF IS DEBATED NOW, when Democrats have time to consider it fully, or it will come out in the fall, in a torrent of negative ads by the Trump team that would likely prove politically fatal. Democrats deserve the facts before they choose a nominee.”

Why the strong focus on Sanders? Look at this California Poll released:
“The survey by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found Sanders favored by 32% of likely voters in the March 3 primary, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden, 14%, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren 13%, and two former mayors, Michael R. Bloomberg of New York and Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., both at 12%.

Remember in the Democratic primary you need to gain 15% of the vote to get any delegates. In this poll, in the largest state, only Sanders would.

An interesting tweet from Rasmussen Polls yesterday.
They compared Presidents Trump and Obama each having a 50% approval rating at this point in their daily polling. They added this:
One president enjoyed 95%+ favorable mainstream media coverage & received a Nobel Prize.
Another president received 95% unfavorable mainstream media coverage & got impeached & acquitted.

HAVE A GREAT DAY.

Bloomberg and the Dems…

Well the Democratic primary has finally gotten around to attacking each other, the gloves are off. In center ring is Mike Bloomberg and beginning tomorrow night it all comes together.

Bloomberg it was announced this morning now qualifies (under the changed rules) for the debate tomorrow night.
He announced that he will be there. Get the popcorn ready. His fellow candidates will make him target one. (At the bottom of this blog is a copy of what the Washington Post reported on Bloomberg and women in his company. This will be one area of attack.)

In the latest Marist National Pool Bloomberg is now in second place with 19% of the vote. He has passed VP Biden and Senators Warren and Kloubchar. Mayor Pete was sixth. So much for the Iowa and N.H. boost.
Sanders holds the lead at 31%. He would love to see Senator Warren knocked from the race here. Leave that left lane open to him alone and have the others fight for the middle with Bloomberg.

Bloomberg has bought himself into the race. He is set up for Super Tuesday. Consider this. He has already spent over $124 million on advertising in the 14 Super Tuesday states. (After Nevada and SC). That is over 10 times what his top rivals have or can put into the contests. As an example, the current poll leader Sen. Sanders has spent just under $10 million on ads for the same primaries. Remember Super Tuesday yields the biggest trove of delegates of any single primary day.
Think about the spending difference and the attacks being prepared for tomorrow by the others on the stage against Bloomberg. Is it possible the anti billionaire tone of the primary is going to be dominated by one billionaire spending to buy it?

Then Saturday is the Nevada caucus. The stakes for VP Biden are high. Can he begin to revive his campaign after his first two finishes sent his national poll numbers diving? Can he assure his donors that he is okay? Can he stop the South Carolina erosion and win that “firewall state.”
I think he needs to be in the mix in Nevada and at least second, or a close third to try and recover in S.C.
South Carolina then becomes his place. There he has to win or its likely all over for him. The odds, to me at least, is that he does not recover.

The same for Senator Warren. She seems to be falling (fourth in Marist nation poll today). It’s recover in Nevada and S.C. or pack your tent and go home. She is going all out, but it doesn’t look promising. Tomorrow’s debate is key for her. She has to have an Amy Klobuchar moment.

Mayor Pete was thought to have momentum coming out of the two early contests. It is not showing yet in Nevada and he trails badly in SC. In the Marist poll he is sixth, falling behind Klobuchar. His problems with minority voters are coming home to roost now.

As for Sen. Klobuchar, her hope is another debate dominant performance in Las Vegas tomorrow night. Watch for her to be direct and hard going after Bloomberg. He is her lane and she will attack hard knowing what is at stake.

other news

Who felt bad to hear Michael Avenatti was convicted by a jury of all related to his efforts to extort up to $25 million from Nike? Maybe only those who gave him so much air time and thought he could be President.

Remember the ERA we talked about a few times and how Virginia had passed it but the deadline was 1982? Well you will be happy to know that the House wants to remove a four-decade-old deadline on ratifying it. A name you know well, Jerry Nadler, said this: “We are on the brink of history, and no deadline should stand in the way”.

the washington post on bloomberg

“Mike Bloomberg for years has battled women’s allegations of profane, sexist comments,” by Michael Kranish in New York: “As Mike Bloomberg celebrated his 48th birthday in 1990, a top aide at the company he founded presented him with a booklet of profane, sexist quotes she attributed to him. 

“A good salesperson is like a man who tries to pick up women at a bar by saying, ‘Do you want to f—? He gets turned down a lot — but he gets f—– a lot, too!’ Bloomberg was quoted in the booklet as saying. Bloomberg also allegedly said that his company’s financial information computers ‘will do everything, including give you [oral sex]. I guess that puts a lot of you girls out of business.’

“At the time, some Bloomberg staffers said, they laughed off the comments in the 32-page booklet, “The Wit and Wisdom of Michael Bloomberg,” as a macho side of one of the nerdiest men on Wall Street. But others viewed them more darkly, seeing them as blunt examples of what they considered to be a hostile environment, artifacts of a workplace employees said was saturated with degrading comments.

“Several lawsuits have been filed over the years alleging that women were discriminated against at Bloomberg’s business-information company, including a case brought by a federal agency and one filed by a former employee, who blamed Bloomberg for creating a culture of sexual harassment and degradation.”

HAVE A GREAT DAY.

In A Nutshell…

HAPPY VALENTINES DAY TO OUR SUBSCRIBERS.
WE LOVE HAVING YOU ONBOARD AND THANK YOU.

IN A NUTSHELL

The current state of argument between the President, Attorney General and Democrats in congress is the story of this presidency.

The President comes off a high. He wins acquittal, his numbers go up to 50% for the first time. He is on a roll with the economy and an election nine months away. So what does he do? He tweets himself into a mess.

Consider this:

A majority of Americans say they are better off than they were three years ago, a factor that boosts any re-election bid.
In fact, the 61 percent “better off” rating is the highest percentage recorded during the re-election year of any incumbent president since Gallup first asked the question in its surveys in 1992.
In addition, 52 percent of respondents said it is easier for them to “go and buy things in the stores” than it was three years ago.
Add, sixty-two percent give the President a great deal or a fair amount of credit for improvement in the state of the economy.
Top it all off with the fact that 60 percent of independent voters said they are better off.

Put all that together and the President should be rolling — except he tweets himself into a corner.
This time it was with the Roger Stone case. All he had to do was stay out of it and let the Justice Department do its job.
He has the ultimate power to pardon if he wanted, but no, he got involved early and muddied the water.

AG Barr is a person we have long said we respect and is the adult in any room. Hearing him yesterday speak out on the tweets did two things:
1. Illustrate clearly how far over the line the President went.
2. Made all those too quick to quack Democrats calling for his “impeachment” (Barr) look like fools.

The adult in the room said that Stone had committed a crime and had been found guilty.
The adult in the room said the prosecutors asking for seven to nine years was way out of line.
As he was working to adjust the required recommendation to the judge, as the DOJ should, the President tweeted and the issue exploded.
Suddenly the President and AG were in a conspiracy.
Leading Democrats pounced and wanted the AG removed or impeached.
The judge got angry.
The country has to go through another negative news cycle.

A mess was created because the President tweeted and then answered follow up questions from the press. He gave his opponents and the press ammunition to attack and see another conspiracy. It was unnecessary and all he did was stop his growing momentum.

He continues to be his own best friend and worst enemy.

I understand why when you have 92% negative coverage in a positive economy and situation you want to get your message out. I believe future Presidents will use social media big time to communicate. I would, wouldn’t you? The difference is, as we said from the day he was elected, he needs a filter. Someone to read and stop messages that are instant reactions and create craters for him. Just imagine how much further ahead he would be if a Kellyanne Conway was reading a tweet before it hit the air. It’s that simple.

Finally on this Stone matter, he doesn’t deserve the time they wanted. He was found guilty and there is a price to pay, but not what they wanted. In addition there are now questions about the prejudice of the jury chair and others. I think we’ll see an attempt to challenge the whole verdict in court.

political news

Former VP Biden and Senator Warren are trying to hang on. Warren seems to be betting it all on Nevada, while Biden is all in on S.C. Both are on the ropes and know it.
Mike Bloomberg is getting a lot of coverage now, and you see the attacks building on him. The President is building him up and giving him credibility with his personal tweets back and forth.
I would think the administration would not want Bloomberg, but this week they helped him.
For their part the Bloomberg team seems focused on the Super Tuesday states where they have their best chance.
Arkansas where he is in first in the polls.
North Carolina where he was yesterday and is in third.
Texas and California where he is investing heavily.

Meanwhile Senator Sanders took his first national Democratic Primary poll lead.  Another blow to VP Biden.
The debate next week and the Nevada caucus on Saturday loom large.

HERE’S WISHING YOU A HAPPY VALENTINES DAY & GREAT WEEKEND.

Shaping The Battle…

If you’re a reader of this blog you weren’t surprised by the results last night. We hit it on the nose yesterday with our prediction.
So what now?
Only three candidates emerged from the New Hampshire primary with delegates. Remember, fifteen per cent is the threshold to earn any. What do the results mean for the candidates?

Senator Sanders has the chance to knock Elizabeth Warren out of the race next Saturday in Nevada. If he does that it leaves the left lane wide open to him. His contenders would be Mayor Buttigieg, Senator Warren and former Mayor Bloomberg. The later three are all considered more “center” in the Democratic Party.
That certainly opens an avenue for Sanders to continue gathering the delegates he needs.

As for former VP Joe Biden, I don’t see him recovering to the point he prevails. Remember he has run for President twice before and never won a primary. His hesitation with questions and somewhat stumbling over some answers have been a negative. Then add the charges of corruption that arose from the impeachment, that really hurt. There is an instinct on the part of working Americans to say, “wait Hunter got paid how much for what?” That constant drumbeat raised doubts and harmed him.
When they write the story of the 2020 Election it will say that the House Democrats shot at President Trump (with impeachment), missed him, but hit Joe Biden.
It’s increasingly clear that the effort was a bad move.

Thus it appears to me that Warren is done. Biden is going. Wang and Bennent left last night and others will follow. Who would be the toughest for the President? Of those standing now it would Amy Klobuchar in my opinion. Midwest roots and values and from a state the President wants to win, surrounded by others he needs to win.

One big event to mark on your calendar is next Wednesday. There is another Democratic debate in Nevada. The gloves will be off as some fight for position and others for survival. Plus it is likely Mike Bloomberg will be in it.

other news today:

No sooner had we printed yesterday about the prosecutors recommending a long sentence for Roger Stone before we heard the DOJ was recommending otherwise. The result? The four prosecutors (from the Mueller probe) quit the case (with one resigning).
The President had tweeted that he thought it was unfair. Wonder if this impeachable?

We mentioned the ERA here over the past few weeks and today we can report it has new momentum. Back in the 1970’s it was directed to equal rights for women. The new momentum today is from LGBTQ activists.
They want it revived even if it has to start over. Their position is it would bring sexual minorities out of the shadows and give them protections in hiring and firing and wage equality.

News from Utah on the drive to “Recall Romney”.
Utah lawmakers said they won’t consider proposals that could censure or recall him. Utah’s House Speaker said the GOP caucus decided not to advance either proposal following a “robust debate” behind closed doors.
They said they want to get the whole impeachment behind us (the country).

HAVE A GREAT DAY.

All Eyes…

All eyes are on New Hampshire tonight and if you are following closely you keep hearing about “momentum” for this candidate, and “major movement” for this one. So what do we think?

It looks like Senator Sanders wins this primary, and coming off his first or tied or close second (the official results are still out) in Iowa he will have done what he needed in the first two.
Mayor Pete, off his surprise in Iowa, looks to be a strong second here. He is moving on for sure.
Now comes the interesting part. I see Amy Klobuchar making a major move today and she may finish third. That would vault her well into the middle of this race and provide a path.

That leaves the others. If Senator Warren falls to fourth it’s hard to see her moving on with any chance. This is home turf and two rejections in the first two the game is over for her.
VP Biden could fall to fifth here. Fourth or fifth is bad news for him. He will survive to S.C. because he has the organization and funds, but those polls are already falling. S.C. can well go from his fire wall to end of campaign.

If all that happens then comes Super Tuesday and Mike Bloomberg joining the fray. So follow this scenario. Mayor Buttigieg and Senator Klobuchar joining Senator Sanders and now Mike Bloomberg. Sanders would own the far left all to himself. The other three would be fighting for the more centrist Democratic Party vote. That would help Sanders big and can divide the party.

Let’s see how it plays out.

some other news

Remember a few weeks ago when Virginia passed the ERA and said there were now enough states to make it legal? The only problem was the time period had run out in 1982? Well, yesterday Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg said that the current version of the Equal Rights Amendment is dead. This undercuts congressional Democrats days before they plan to pass a bill trying to revive it. If she is against it then there is no way the court will support it.
She said backers need to start over, because the amendment Congress proposed to the states for ratification in 1972 is now dead. When Congress submitted the amendment, it set a seven-year deadline for ratification. By the deadline in 1979, only 35 of the needed 38 states had ratified.

Did you see this news on the Roger Stone sentencing for next week?
Federal prosecutors are recommending Roger Stone be sent to prison for seven to nine years for his conviction on charges related to his efforts to make contact with WikiLeaks during the 2016 presidential campaign.
That would be the longest sentence to stem from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation.
The actual sentence will be big news no matter what it is.

This should get more coverage. The Justice Department sued New Jersey and a Washington county over their laws and policies limiting local cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The moves escalated the administration’s battle with liberal states and localities with sanctuary policies.

HAVE A GREAT DAY AND ENJOY WATCHING THE RETURNS TONIGHT.

Tomorrow – New Hampshire.

The Sunday News Shows concentrated on the Democratic candidates, Friday’s debate and the upcoming N.H. Primary tomorrow. It was a nice break from the normal administration bashing and most interesting.

so what happened and what’s next:

Friday nights Democratic debate moved two candiates forward. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobucha. I think that is going to show up tomorrow in the primary.
Sanders may hold on and win, but Buttigieg is going to get accolades for his showing. The surprise could be Klobuchar who could pull a surprise and get to third. If she does then Senator Warren is about done and VP Biden’s fire wall in S.C. is going to crumble.
Once again we will have Iowa and N.H. defining who are real contenders and who are done in the first week.
After tomorrow’s primary we get a lull until next Saturday (Feb.22) when the Nevada Caucus is held. Following that S.C. looms the next Tuesday, and by then we could be down to 2 or 3 standing when Super Tuesday comes and Mike Bloomberg enters.

All the while the President will be out and causing havoc. Tonight he has a rally in — New Hampshire.
Did you see the Facebook ad running with the President praising those in the SOTU audience altered to show Speaker Pelosi ripping the speech after each introduction? Here’s a link:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2020/02/07/trump-video-nancy-pelosi-tearing-sotu-speech-remain-facebook/4694454002/

That move tearing up the speech with such vehemence was just wrong, and it is hurting her and the team.

Mike Bloomberg released a tax plan. He would raise the top individual income tax rate to 39.6%, from 37% set by the 2017 tax cut.
He wants to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. It had been at 35% before passage of the tax law cut in 2017.
He would increase the capital gains tax rate to the same rate as ordinary income for taxpayers making more than $1 million per year.
He would lower the estate tax threshold, and end a special small business deduction in the 2017 law.
He also would impose a 5% “surtax” on income above $5 million, which would apply to income both from capital and labor.

You may have noticed that he and the President have been sniping at each other (They are “old friends” from their NYC days). Well Bloomberg put this ad out on why Donald Trump cannot stay as President. Take a look at it and ask yourself if this would sway his supporters or not.
https://twitter.com/noltenc/status/1226688255376199682?s=11

Here’s another example of the difference between the President and his potential rivals. The President in his speeches touts “U.S. energy independence,” and that “we are the number one oil producer in the world.”
Well on Friday Senator Sanders introduced legislation to ban hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” across the United States. He called for an “immediate” ban on new federal permits for fracking infrastructure and a ban on fracking within 2,500 feet of homes and schools by 2021. The proposal would ban fracking across the U.S. starting in 2025.

That’s it for today except I wanted to provide access to what I thought was a great column in the WSJ from Peggy Noonan, the former Speech Writer for President Reagan. She covers both sides and really lays it out.
Here’s her opening paragrapgh:
Democrats, when they’re feeling alarmed or mischievous, will often say that Ronald Reagan would not recognize the current Republican Party. I usually respond that John F. Kennedy would not recognize the current Democratic Party, and would never succeed in it. 
You can read the full article here:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-democrats-unserious-week-11581032929

have a great day

What a week…

This week shaped the November election results, and that is not good for the Democrats.

First came the Iowa caucus and the utter chaos that has followed.
Here we are on Friday morning, four days later and we still have two candidates claiming they won.
The Iowa Democratic party says 100% is in.
Buttigieg got 26.2% and Sanders 26.1% they said. It’s done.
Hold on says the DNC, we want a review of it all and recount, it’s not over.
Buttigieg says he won by a tenth of a per cent and gets 564 inner state delegates versus Sanders 562.
Sanders says he won because he got 6,000 more votes.
Here’s a question.
The Democratic party decried the 2016 election because Hillary won more popular votes, while President Trump won the electoral college; then turned around and created a similar vote system in Iowa? Really?

Iowa was black eye number one this week, and when they take away their first vote in the nation because of it, I have a feeling they are not voting Democrat this year.

Then came the State of The Union on Tuesday.
The classless ripping of the speech at the end sealed a negative reaction.
The faces by Speaker Pelosi. The mouthing of words to who? The shaking of the head. The refusal of her and the party to stand for heroes, was leading to a negative. Then she put the cherry on top with the ripping of the papers.

Black eye number two.

Wednesday brought the acquittal vote on an ill advised impeachment.
How much smarter it would have been to vote a censure and box the President in a corner.
So what do they do? They go before the cameras and talk about bringing in more witnesses and maybe new charges. Yea, that’s a good idea, double down on a loss. Wow.
Then they continued stating that “he is impeached forever,” making the politics of the whole event clearer.

Black eye number three.

Then I hear them say the President is riding the Obama economic wave.
Okay, then why are you decrying that he has dismantled all the previous administration did?
You can’t ride to new highs while taking them apart.
You can’t be lowering taxes while the previous administration raised them and say you are riding the wave.
You can’t be cancelling regulations at a 3-1 pace of adding them and saying we are riding the wave of the past.
You can’t have it both ways.
Then add this.
Your presidential candidates are saying the economy is not working and not in good shape for America. If they’re right who is to blame, this administration or the previous.
A muddled message is not going over well.

Black eye number four.

Finally we have heard since November 2016 that the President’s approval is in the high 30’s or low 40’s and never moves.
That was what the pollsters said.
Well, the impeachment and all the actions above have changed that.
You saw Gallup say he is at 49%, a new high. Rasmussen has him at 49 today. Congraulations, your actions helped him do what he couldn’t on his own.

Black eye number five.

Finally there’s tonights Democratic debate.
This one will be unlike the others. Why? Tonight they go after each other. Iowa is done, New Hampshire is after the weekend. Gloves off.
VP Biden, who was actualy hurt more by the House impeachment than anyone, is cratering. He is down to 11% and in fourth place again in the latest NH polls. He has to go after the leaders now or his firewall in SC will begin crumbling. Warren needs to get out of a distant third or she is in danger of falling out of the race.
Tonight will be different and the Democrats may have killed Joe Biden, the one they thought could beat the President. Well done.

Black eye number six.

What a week for the Democrats.

some other news

What did people watch Wednesday night after the acquittal? Top shows:
FOXNEWS THE FIVE 5,336,000
FOXNEWS HANNITY 5,170,000
FOXNEWS TUCKER 5,117,000
FOXNEWS LAURA 4,710,000
MSNBC MADDOW 3,144,000
MSNBC ODONNELL 2,156,000
MSNBC HAYES 1,909,000
CNN TOWN HALL 1,043,000

Another terrorist leader is gone:
President Trump has confirmed that U.S. forces have killed terrorist Qasim al-Rimi, leader of al Queda in the Arabian Peninsula, in a drone strike in Yemen.
He was a deputy to al Queda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri who had worked in Afghanistan for Osama bin Laden.

An example of public feeling making running against the President tough: 59% of Americans say they are better off financially than they were a year ago. This is tied for the all-time high in January 1999.
What was the lowest? May 2009, when just 23% of Americans felt they were better off.

And as we were going to print this news came down:
A U.S. appeals court on Friday threw out a lawsuit brought by Democrat lawmakers alleging President Donald Trump’s overseas business dealings violate the U.S. Constitution’s anti-corruption emoluments clauses.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit said a group of more than 200 Democrat lawmakers lacked legal standing to bring the case in the first place.
Just not a good week for the Democrats.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.

Not Guilty. Next?

Thus it ends

One Republican rides off into the sunset on one count and the impeachment trial ends. Finally we can move on, but I do wonder what’s next.
I don’t think the House Leadership is going to leave this alone and concentrate on the nations business and November election. Do you?
I foresee a rocky road until the next election. The left seems almost singularly focused on getting this President.
The other question is how angry and vindictive will the senate be? Will they launch investigations into the Bidens now and the whistleblowers connections?
I think the senate will not unless the house starts another inquiry. Then it’s all hands off and we have another bigger mess.

As for Mitt Romney he voted to remove the President from office on one of the two charges. He is the first senator to ever vote to remove a President of his own party. He said he did it with prayerful consideration. His checkered history with the President and comments about him when he wasn’t seeking a cabinet role show the lack of respect he has always had for him. Lucky for him he has four years before he runs again, but he is going to get some heat from colleagues and constituents. His vote also added heat on Senator Collins who voted not to remove. His party is not happy with him and at least one appeared on TV with a “Quit Mitt” button last night.
Mitch O’Connel,l though, has zero interest in going after Mitt. He needs every vote he can get and will talk of Romney’s support for many other issues.

There was as much focus yesterday on Speaker Pelosi’s tearing up the SOTU speech as anything yesterday. There was widespread criticism of her action with fellow Democrats giving her a standing ovation for doing so. Another example of the great divide. Two Republicans in the House are bringing censure charges as we outlined yesterday.

In the end we were wrong and no Democrats crossed lines to vote not to remove. I think Senator Jones of Alabama voting to remove just assured his defeat in Alabama this November.

Some of the funniest comments among all the rancor I heard were:
From House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy who said: “He is acquitted forever”. An off play of Majority Leader Pelosi’s delight in saying “he is impeached forever.”

The other was from Mitch O’Connell who when told that Speaker Pelosi said “she does not accept the acquittal”. He said, “What is she going to do, tear it up like she did the SOTU speech?”

Time to move on folks, really time to move on. You settle it with your vote in November.

Iowa

Can you believe we still don’t have results from Iowa? The caucus was Monday night! With 97% in here are the numbers:
Buttigeg 26.2%. Sanders 26.1%. Warren 18.2%. Biden 15.8%.
In the popular vote Sanders is ahead. A version right now of the national election. One person leads in popular vote, the other in delegates.
Based upon the missing 3% it appears Sanders may win both.

Now how many people will think forever that Buttigeg won even if Sanders does?
Iowa’s place in the early primary ranking may be changing.
By the way the reason they have a caucus is New Hampshire is dedicated to being the “first primary in the nation”, so the caucus route was a way to please both.

Some Other News

Some more good news for Republicans in the polls. This was released yesterday and surprised me:
As Trump’s job approval rating has improved, so has the image of the Republican Party. 51% of Americans view the Republican Party favorably, up from 43% in September. It is the first time GOP favorability has exceeded 50% since 2005. Meanwhile, 45% of Americans have a positive opinion of the Democratic Party, a slight dip from 48% in September.

Along with that FoxNews continues to blossom. Here’s a ratings update:
“Fox News continues to outperform its rivals CNN and MSNBC — and in a big way, according to Nielsen Media Research. The network averaged 3.4 million prime-time viewers last week, compared to 1.5 million who tuned in to MSNBC and 1 million who favored CNN. Prime-time favorites “ Tucker Carlson Tonight” and “The Ingraham Angle” enjoyed their highest-rated weeks in history with 4.1 million and 3.8 million viewers, respectively.
Fox News was also the most watch network in the entire cable kingdom, besting such non-news rivals as ESPN and HGTV.
During coverage of the Iowa caucuses on Tuesday, Fox News ratings also soared to 4.3 million viewers.
The Fox Business Network show “ Lou Dobbs Tonight,” meanwhile, marked its 100th consecutive weekly win over CNBC in the 7 p.m. time slot, according to Nielsen. The show also scored his 57th straight week as the No. 1 business program on television.”

Three Topics Plus:

topic one: sotu

No doubt you watched, heard or spoke to someone today about the SOTU. So my comments will be limited to this.
The tearing up of the speech the moment it ended was one of the most disrespectful acts in congress I have witnessed. It was absolutely classless.

Someone should bring up a measure to censure the Speaker for her action. I realize it won’t pass the Democratic House, but it is the right thing to do and put people on record.
The same way the Speaker brought censure charges (rightfully) against Congressman Joe Wilson who shouted “you lie” at a President Obama SOTU. He was wrong and Speaker Pelosi was wrong yesterday.

Otherwise, a long time ago the SOTU changed to a political type speech. The President presented his case for his accomplishments and that is what has been the norm for decades now.

Topic two: impeachment

Finally we reach the end of this ordeal.
Two of the three wavering Republican Senators (Collins and Murkowski) have announced they are voting to acquit. The only Republican not yet announcing his vote is Mitt Romney. It is hard to believe he wants to be the sole Republican in the House or Senate to vote to impeach the President.

That leaves those Democratic Senators who may cross over and vote to acquit. Let’s watch that today. If even one does that would mean we have bipartisanship in both houses – for the President.

topic three: Iowa

As of this writing  there is still only 71.44% of the precincts reporting. How can that be two days after the vote? We counted hanging chads quicker.

The vote as of this writing is:
Pete Buttigieg 27% … Bernie Sanders 25% … Elizabeth Warren 18% … Joe Biden 15% … Amy Klobuchar 13% … Andrew Yang 1% … Tom Steyer 0.3%

We’ve learned some facts:
In round one Bernie had the most votes.
Then in round two Buttigieg picked up more than him to take the lead.
What was interesting was that Joe Biden actually dropped in round two by a few tenths.
They have 28% additional to announce, so we’ll see where it ends up. You need 15% to gain any delegates.
By any measure this was a disaster for Biden, but the confusion over the numbers and reporting have masked a lot of that.

Now Friday looms large as they have a debate in New Hampshire.
Sanders is favored to win next Tuesday.
That would mean Buttigieg and Sanders spilt the first two and onto the Nevada Caucus they go Feb. 22nd.
Biden cannot fail there, too, as South Carolina, his firewall is next Feb. 29.

If they end up with three different winners heading to Super Tuesday, watch out, because Mike Bloomberg is waiting and has been investing heavily.

As we said months ago, this could end up with a real challenge into the Milwaukee convention.

Topic Four: other issues

A Gallup poll released points out the challenge the Democrats have going against the President this election cycle.
The poll found that 84% of Americans are satisfied with their quality of life.
93% of Republicans, and 74% of Democrats agree.
81% overall are satisfied with the nation’s military strength and readiness.
91% of Republicans, and 73% of Democrats agree.
72% are satisfied with the opportunity for a person to get ahead by working hard;
93% of Republicans and 52% of Democrats agree.
68% overall are satisfied with the nation’s security from terrorism;
80% of Republicans, and 53% of Democrats agree.
68% overall are also satisfied with the state of the U.S. economy;
87% of Republicans and 48% of Democrats agree.
63% overall are satisfied with women’s place in U.S. society;
84% of Republicans and 41% of Democrats agree.

Yesterday we mentioned the challenge that Doug Collins announced in Georgia his challenge to Kelly Loeffler, the recently appointed Senator in the state. Yesterday a formidable Democratic challenge emerged to them both. The Rev. Raphael Warnock, pastor at the massive Ebenezer Baptist Church that was the spiritual home of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. announced he would was running.
That race will now be active, expensive and one to watch.

The App What?

So after three years of campaigning and the hype – the app didn’t work? Wait you’re telling me you want to be the “first in the nation” and you can’t count the votes? Wait, I just heard five candidates say they did real well, how is that? Wait, you want to run the country and you can’t count bodies in the room?
Can you believe that last night? I sat there waiting and waiting and after they all said they won, I went to bed. This morning as I write this I still don’t know.
Was the app a surprise? Read this (from Politico) and tell me:
Sean Bagniewski, chair of the Polk County Democratic Party, said that local officials were aware of problems with the app since last Thursday and that they had requested state officials resolve the problems — to no avail.
“‘We knew the app was a problem last Thursday,’ Bagniewski said. When local party officials asked the state party about issues they had with the app, they were referred to a ‘dedicated staffer’ who was not able to solve the problems, he said.
“‘We had had so many complaints about the app that we started telling our chairs that if they were having problems with the app then you should call in the results,’ Bagniewski said. The state party did not provide any training on how to use the app, he said, adding that while the caucus trainings are done at the county level, the app itself came from the state level.

By the way, wait until you hear who built the app and what campaign they worked on in the recent past.

We’ll see what happens, but trying to read the speech tea leaves it sounded like Bernie and Pete were at the top, and VP Biden had a bad night. Did he drop as low as fourth? We’ll see.

Impeachment

Did you hear Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski talk yesterday? Murkowski announced she is voting not to remove, but she and Manchin both said censure was the right thing. Manchin was pushing for that option now.
Well as we wrote many times that was the off ramp for the House. “We are voting to censure the President and the people can vote to impeach in November.” Pelosi, Schiff, Nadler and team rejected that option. Sorry Joe you should have spoken up then. Show some courage now and make a decision, enough with the politics already.
Clearly we’ve said here the President went over a line, but no where near enough to impeach. He went too far and the House Democrats went too far. Get this over with already.

state of the union

Won’t this be fun tonight? The President has a great record to present and a positive state of the union to report. He will do it in a chamber where half the people despise him and want him removed from office. Wow. In fact behind him sits a supporter in VP Pence a lead proponet of his removal in Nancy Pelosi.
If you’re a Presidential Supporter just hope he sticks to his script.

some other interesting news

Fox Business Network gathered these numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that offer straightforward insight into the state of the nation during President Trump’s time in office.
They are the national unemployment rates during the past six administrations:
Unemployment currently is 3.8% during Mr. Trump’s time in office. It was 9.3% during Barack Obama’s era, 5.5% during George W. Bush’s time in office, 6.2% during Bill Clinton’s era, 5.9% forGeorge H.W. Bush’s tenure and 9% during Ronald Reagan’s administration.

Republicans need to hold their senate seats this November if they want to hold the senate. They have far more up for grabs than Democrats. The announcement by Rep. Doug Collins to throw his hat into the ring for the Senate contest in Georgia is a big negative. He is running against a recently appointed woman (Sen. Kelly Loeffler) by Gov. Brian Kemp. This can very well divide the party.
Georgia is in the unusual position of having both of its Senate seats on the line. Republican Sen. David Perdue is up for reelection and a special election will decide who completes Sen. Johnny Isakson’s term, which is where Collins has thrown his hat. Isakson resigned due to health reasons.
Not good for the Republicans in a state still reeling from last year’s Governor’s race.

Speaking of women, the Republican party is pushing hard to run more woman and minorities. The Democratic Party has long touted its appeal to women as an advantage. This time the Republicans are recruiting hard. They have unprecedented numbers of women running for office. The National Republican Congressional Committee says 200 woman have filed for 2020, shattering all previous records. In addition, 164 minorities and 214 veterans also have filed to run as Republicans so far.

HAVE A GREAT DAY.

Post Impeachment

FIRST IMPEACHMENT

Last week we wrote the vote would be either 50/50 or 51-49 to end the trial, and then the vote to remove would be larger, like 55-45 to not remove from office. The first part was right and the second will be too. We just didn’t anticipate a four day delay until Wednesday. Why did that occur and what was the motivation and deal for it?
Makes you wonder what new surprises might be forthcoming tomorrow before the State of The Union and what plans the President’s opponents might have for that.
Today there will be four hours of closing arguments (two hours for each side). Then the 100 senators, today and tomorrow, get 10 minutes each to spout their thoughts. Finally on Wednesday they vote to end this. All the Republicans will vote not to impeach and at least two, if not more, Democrats will vote with them.
So we will end up with a House vote to bring the charges that was Democratic only, with the only bipartisanship being votes with the Republicans. The Senate will end up the same way. Only Democrats voting against their leadership.
Now, will the MSM play it up that way?

NOW COME THE PRIMARIES

We’re off and running tonight with the Iowa Caucus. From all appearances here is what we see. The top two are Sanders and Biden, with a second tier of Warren and Buttigieg. Hanging just outside with a chance to crack the top four is Amy Klobuchar.
Usually coming out of Iowa are three tickets forward. There may be four tonight.
The process is you come and stand with your fellow candidate supporters. Anyone without a minimum 15% is eliminated and those candidates’ supporters get a chance to join another group.
We know the Sanders supporters are fervent and will be out there. We’re not as sure about the Biden ones. So in a traditional primary Biden would likely prevail. In this environment Sanders may well beat him. Wouldn’t that be interesting with New Hampshire next and Bernie favored?
Senators Warren, Klobuchar and Mayor Pete will be fighting to stay alive.
Wait for the second round to be over tonight before declaring a winner.

If Bernie does prevail in the first two, we would move on to Nevada and then SC. Biden can recover there. Then comes an interesting day. Super Tuesday. Though a long shot, but with divided results until then, Mike Bloomberg emerges, and with all he is spending that day looms interesting to say the least.
The other thing about this scenario is this. That would leave three white males standing — in the Democratic primary that would be a moral sin! Add this, all three would be 77 years old or older.

some news you might have missed

Speaking of Bloomberg, did you see he released his tax plan?
He unveiled $5 trillion in proposed new taxes as part of his sweeping program. They would pay for infrastructure projects, as well as investments in green energy, affordable housing, education and health care.
Among the proposals is rolling back President Trump’s corporate tax cuts, additional taxes on capital gains and lowering the threshold for the estate tax, and restoring top rates back to 39.6 percent.
Why do people not realize the lowering of corporate taxes brought jobs back and made us competitive?

Bloomberg also was the beneficiary of debate rules changes that will get him on the stage in the next debate. The revamped DNC debate criteria eliminates the individual donor threshold used for the first eight debates and doubles the polling threshold to qualify for future debates. Since Mike is funding his own campaign he is eligible now.
The Sanders team had an immediate reaction, even calling the change “rigged.” They felt cheated in 2016 and won’t like losing to Bloomberg this time.

There was much talk of the date yesterday 020220. Then the coach of the Chiefs won his first Superbowl while coaching his 222nd game. Here’s an important memory of this day, February 3rd.
The Income Tax Amendment Was Ratified in 1913.
The 16th Amendment to the Constitution was ratified by a majority of U.S. states, allowing Congress to levy an income tax on both corporate and individual incomes. 
Think about that. A 1% tax went into effect on high incomes.
Yup we won the Revolutionary and Civil Wars and built America with no income tax until 1913. Those opposing at the time said if you pass this, someday the government will take 10% of a person’s pay. They were laughed at.

Did you see one of the squad (Rep. Rashida Tlaib) voiced her personal displeasure by booing Hillary Clinton in an Iowa interview Friday? Why? She is backing Bernie and Hillary’s comments about him angered her.
Hmm, internal strife, not good.

Here’s some news from Elizabeth Warren you may have missed:
“In her latest effort to court the transsexual vote, Democratic Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren reminded Iowa voters Thursday she would cede control of picking her secretary of education to a “young trans person.”

Put this one in the column we don’t get it.
Pete Buttigieg was under fire as a racist, after he claimed that the country’s next president needs to embody the values of “the American Heartland.”
Why does Heartland Values make him racist?

In the never ending President Trump stories there’s this one:
Lawyers for a woman who accuses President Donald Trump of raping her in the 1990s are asking for a DNA sample, seeking to determine whether his genetic material is on a dress she says she wore during the encounter. Advice columnist E. Jean Carroll’s lawyers served notice to a Trump attorney Thursday for Trump to submit a sample on March 2 in Washington for “analysis and comparison against unidentified male DNA present on the dress.”
I read that twice to make sure I had it right. You mean you haven’t cleaned the dress in the last 30 years? Hope you didn’t wear it, and hope you clean closets.

What are people watching? These ratings released.
Fox News officially has remained the No. 1 cable news channel in the nation for 18 consecutive years, besting rivals MSNBC and CNN nonstop, according to Nielsen Media Research. The network took the lead in January 2002 and has remained there since. Prime-time audience numbers rose by 33% at Fox News in the past year; they were down by 13% at MSNBC and 2% at CNN, according to Nielsen.
Wonder why?

Mike Flynn made news last week.
His attorneys asked a federal judge to toss his guilty plea for lying to the FBI and dismiss the case against him. The attorneys cited “outrageous misconduct” by prosecutors uncovered by Justice Department inspector general Michael Horowitz.
In his report last month, Mr. Horowitz detailed a series of FBI missteps, including withholding and doctoring evidence in its probe of alleged ties between Trump campaign figures, including Flynn, and Russia.

From the WSJ this AM on a new poll:
President Trump is emerging from the four-month impeachment process with little sign of damage to his political standing. A WSJ/NBC News poll found that in a turbulent political environment, Americans’ views of him remain fixed. Lasting marks of Mr. Trump’s impeachment are set to include deeper polarization and a more powerful executive. And by uniting so decisively behind Mr. Trump, Republicans find their fortunes locked with this election season.
HAVE A GREAT DAY.