What’s next?

Wow, you can’t even plan an October surprise anymore. Events overtake you and the life cycle of a news story doesn’t last long enough.

The administration thought it had everything lined up with the Democrats behavior in the Kavanaugh nomination followed by the “caravan”. Their base got fired up and they made up ground progress in the polls. Just when they were prepared to ride that and add a few last minute initiatives the bottom came out. Think of their plan and what happened.

They would come out with an announcement about a tax cut for the middle class. A 10% cut that would be on top of making last year’s cuts permanent and how could the left say this 10% was for the rich? It would be the middle class and below only.

Then they would follow that with the announcement about lowering drug prices. Who could be against that?

The GNP number would come out and prove 3+ growth is substantial and they would illustrate again that Obama never had a 3% year.

Finally they would stop “the invasion” of our southern border the week before the election by sending the military and showing we mean business.

A terrific plan right? However, a funny thing happened along that road.

Saudi Arabia decided to execute a journalist at their embassy in Turkey. That took the air out of the tax announcement and gave the media a chance to pounce on the administration.

Then a home grown terrorist decided to mail pipe bombs to ten or more leaders of the anti Trump brigade. That took the drug announcement out of the news.

Two days later a hate filled supremacist killed eleven in a jewish temple. A truly horrible act that once again shook the nation. The sad stories of those killed will shake the core of our being and reignite the gun debate.

So now what? The world and national events of the last ten days will not be good for the administration. Besides replacing the message they were trying to send, it gave the media a chance to bash the administration on its “tone”.

What does this mean for the mid terms next week?
That is impossible to answer without knowing what will happen this week. For now it has muddied messages, made people stop and think and not a help to the administration side.

What do we think about the mid terms now?
No change. The Democrats are on target to finish the night with about a seven seat House advantage, and the Republicans will pick up seats in the senate.

On The Caravan:

Can anyone describe what the Democrat plan is to protect our borders and where it stands on the caravan? It is unclear to us.
Kamela Harris was in Iowa and made her stance clear. She says the United States should be “welcoming” migrant caravans that arrive at the nation’s southern border.
Is that the party position? Have you heard anyone else say something different?
This should be a defining issue in the mid terms, but the issue is muddled by all the other events happening.
Especially with a second caravan gathering in Guatemala.Thousands of Honduran migrants gathered in a Guatemalan city near the border with Honduras to prepare for a new caravan that would follow the current one. Which just says if the first makes it then others will surely follow.

Other News Not Covered:

Did you hear about the effort Candace Owens started and Kenye West has signed on to? It’s called “Blexit”.  The movement is a call for black Americans to leave the Democratic Party. The group has a plan for tours of major cities to build momentum.
Kanye West is the designer of the “Blexit” shirts encouraging people to leave the Democratic Party.
Interesting movement that we should watch.

Remember last week we told of the plan by a group (including RFK Jr.) to provide bail for people who were arrested and couldn’t afford it? We told you on day one someone bolted. Add a second now:
“For the second day in a row, a defendant bailed out by the Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights foundation has failed to show up for a court date.
Ralphie Myree, 25, arrested in June for allegedly robbing a Chelsea sex shop at knifepoint, didn’t appear in Manhattan Criminal Court on Wednesday, prompting a judge to order a warrant for her arrest.
“OK, the time is 4:04 p.m. Parole revoked, warrant ordered,” Judge Marisol Martinez Alonso said after waiting hours for Myree. Myree’s public defender left at 12:30 p.m.
Now RFK will be forced to forfeit the $50,000 it paid to free her on Oct. 2.

You as surprised as us?

 

 

 

The October Surprise ….

We often hear about the October surprise before an election. This year we have one with the pipe bomb mailings. How will it play?

That is impossible to answer today because we don’t know who did this.
Is it a right wing person or organization driven by the President’s words?
Is it a left wing person or organization trying to get people to blame Republicans?
Is a terror group or foreign entity trying to divide America?

The answer to that question will tell you the impact on the election. The question is will we know the answer before the election? I think we will.

What we do know now is there are a lot of questions. How did these packages get to their destination? How come none detonated? At least one we’ve seen did not have mail markings. Did the others? If after one was sent did the sender think the others would be delivered if it was packed the same?
There are many more questions, and with cameras all over that should aid the authorities to solve this.

Finally, many took sides already blaming the President and administration. That is just wrong. This is equally shared. You have seen the words used by the left and MSM to attack the President. You have seen the challenges in restaurants and on the street. There are no clean hands. So stop that.

Here’s an example of hypocrisy.
Hillary Clinton yesterday: “It’s a time of deep divisions and we have to do everything we can to bring our country together.”
Hillary 2 weeks ago: “You cannot be civil with a political party that wants to destroy what you stand for, what you care about.

There is far too much of this.

By the way where was the Democratic and MSM outrage over Obama’s pardon and  release of FALN leader and bomber Oscar Lopez Rivera? You remember that, as we wrote extensively about it. His organizations bombs (they claimed responsibility for more than 120 bombings) killed six and injured dozens.
They not only let this man free, they wanted him to head a NYC parade.

Megan Kelly:

Megan Kelly is in trouble at NBC, and may lose her daily show this week. The report this morning is:
NBC News is expected to pull the plug on the show, casting the TV anchor’s future with the network into doubt, people familiar with the matter said. Ms. Kelly has been under fire for remarks in which she questioned why using “blackface” for a Halloween costume was necessarily racist or insensitive.

Megan, when she abandoned Fox, was riding high. On her way out she angered her base conservative support. When she got to NBC she found out the left did not like her. She has gone from one issue to another and no one had her back. As she twists in the wind, the conservatives will not rally and support her. She has found out the left will never welcome her. Good luck Megan. As they say, choose your friends carefully and remember who they are.

Trump’s October Surprise:

Remember when President Trump announced a new tax cut plan? Unless events overtake him today he is planning to announce a new 10% cut for the middle class. He’s also planning to announce a drug price program to drive costs down. Here are some details and the challenge:
He wants to (1) negotiate more drug prices in Medicare; (2) benchmark some prices against nations like France and Germany; and (3) change how doctors get paid for administering drugs to patients, too.
The administration thinks it will save billions of dollars, although they’re bracing for the health care industry to fight back.

This was the administrations planned October surprise before the pipe bombs took over.

Immigration:

Did you see the Trump move of playing back President Obama’s words on immigration?
“I agree with President Obama 100%!” Mr. Trump wrote to a C-SPAN video clip of Mr. Obama speaking when he was a U.S. senator from Illinois.
In the clip, Mr. Obama warns about the threat of illegal immigration to the rule of law and its unfairness to legal immigrants — themes on which Mr. Trump harps, but which many of today’s Democrats dismiss as a racist dog-whistle.

Very effective argument, but little to no coverage in the MSM.

Free Bail:

Did you hear about this program?
Robert F. Kennedy Human Rightsannounced a large scale Mass Bail Out Action at New York’s Rikers Island. The Mass Bail Out Action is a collaborative effort made up of grassroots groups and formerly incarcerated people to free women and young people in New York City who are jailed because they cannot afford to post bail. The action, which will begin October 1st and continue throughout the month, has organized over 200 volunteers who will pay bail at one of New York City’s five jails or volunteer at a 24-hour community mobile response unit.

Guess what? Already a person they bailed out failed to show up for their hearing. One lost bail posting for them. Many more to follow we’re sure. Not to mention the potential activity on the streets that can occur.

I guess you can put this next to the released killer we wrote about (Herman Bell) who executed police officers on the street and was released recently. One police officer’s wife continues to speak out. Where does she her husband back? Their two daughters their father?
Oh yea, the Governor (Cuomo), recently restored Bell’s voting rights.

 

Two Weeks …..

A Little On The News Today:

With two weeks to go and a little momentum it seems on the Republican side, the MSM seems to be getting a little nervous about their predicted “Blue Wave”. Take a look at today:

On GMA, George Stephanopoulos called the President “a liar” twice on his claims of the caravan having MS13 and other elements in it.

The NYT headlines are these:
Trump and G.O.P. Candidates Escalate Race and Fear as Election Ploys:
The president’s unsubstantiated charge that “unknown Middle Easterners” were part of the migrant caravan was an escalation of his efforts to stoke fears ahead of the Nov. 6 vote.
Trump’s Plans to Deter Migrants Could Mean New ‘Voluntary’ Family Separations:
New policies to deter illegal immigration include a plan that would ask migrants to choose between their children and longer detention.
Their Editorial is this:
Donald Trump Is Lyin’ Up a Storm:
Is there an election coming up, or something?

Our question would be a little different than their’s:
Are you guys getting nervous that you may be wrong about this election as you were in 2016? Do you think maybe you might be out of touch with America?

Pelosi As Speaker:

Nancy Pelosi said this yesterday as she anticipates becoming speaker.
She will be a “transitional speaker”. PELOSI ALLIES said she’s “acknowledging she is a mere mortal” and can’t live forever and she isn’t going to put out a timetable for how long she plans to stay atop House Democratic leadership. “Putting a specific expiration date on your back erodes your leverage,” they say.

So with all those Democratic candidates running for congress saying they “would not vote” for her to be speaker, how can she win? Certainly no Republican would vote for her. So how would that work? It’s called political trickery. Here’s how they will say they kept their promise and vote for her.
You see there will be a closed door Democratic meeting to elect their leaders. Pelosi will win. After that comes the public session in which she runs against a Republican.
So, the Democrats who promised not to vote for her will say they didn’t vote for her in the Democratic conference, but of course would support a Democratic over a Republican for speaker.

Foolish are the voters electing these people to be mislead.

The Saudi Murder

Make no mistake about it, this was a planned murder with a ready cover of a double walking out the back wearing Khashoggi’s clothes.  The changing stories and lies have exasperated the situation to a world crisis. The President, trying to save a relationship, jobs and business, is being made to look bad by the press. He has to get out front here.

Stories You Didn’t Hear:

In today’s WSJ:
Angela Merkel is conceding to U.S. gas imports.In an about-face and a win for President Trump, the German chancellor has offered government support to efforts to open up the country to U.S. gas. Mr. Trump has intensively lobbied Europe to buy significant amounts of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, as part of his campaign to rewrite the terms of trade relations.

In today’s LAT:
Michael Avenatti, the lawyer for porn actress Stormy Daniels, was hit with a personal judgment of $4.85 million Monday for his failure to pay a debt to a former colleague at his longtime Newport Beach firm.

Less than an hour after his defeat in the Los Angeles lawsuit, Avenatti suffered another setback at a trial in Orange County: The Irvine Co. won a court order evicting him and his staff from their offices because the firm, Eagan Avenatti, skipped the last four months of rent.

Sounds like life got a little  stormy for Avenatti yesterday.

Both these stories would be pro Trump. Wonder why it wasn’t leading news.

What you did hear was former President Obama was in Texas and said it was he who started this booming economy. From the Washington Times:
Former President Barack Obama took credit Monday for what he called the “economic miracles” happening under President Trump.
In a speech to Nevada Democrats, Mr. Obama derided Mr. Trump, without naming him, as merely being handed off a booming economy by the previous president and contrasted that with his own inheritance on the economy.
“By the time I left office wages were rising … poverty was falling and that’s what I handed off to the next guy,” he said before chuckling. “So when you hear all this talk about economic miracles right now. Remember who started it. Remember who started it! C’mon!”

Our comment: Yea right.

Finally:

If you didn’t see this story and videos you should. This most deplorable human being has been fired. I can’t say deplorable enough.

https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/19/protester-harasses-9-11-widow-nypd/

 

 

Two Weeks and a Day …..

Two weeks and a day to the mid terms. We will stick with our consistent prediction of the past eighteen months. The Democrats win the house. We would guess that they pick up 30 seats to have a seven seat advantage.

In the senate the Republicans will hold and most likely pick up a seat or two. The key to the senate for them is to pick up two seats. If they get to 53 it is key to passing the President’s agenda. Here’s why:
Gone will be Flake, Corker, and of course John McCain. They, along with Murkowski and Collins, were the most likely to vote with the Democrats. If Republicans get to 53 seats they can lose a Collins and Murkowski and still have 51 votes.

The senate keys are two seats Republicans have now. Arizona and Nevada. They need to hold them. Recent polls show them with a slight advantage.
Then they need two pick ups. North Dakota is trending their way and looks like a pickup. The others with opportunity (in probable order) are Missouri, Florida, Indiana and Montana.

We’ll update this as the two weeks unfold, but today we see Dems by 7 in the house and Republicans up to 53 in the senate.

Polls:

Have you noticed that the President’s approval ratings have edged up recently? Yesterday the WSJ/NBC poll showed:
His job approval rating rose to 47%, the highest mark of his time in office, with 49% disapproving his performance. Last month, 44% approved and 52% disapproved.
The Rasmussen poll on Friday had him at 47% too.

Here’s a question on the President’s polling:
What would it be if the MSM, which is reporting 92% negative on him and the administration, were treating him as they did Obama?
Most people get their news off the MSM and the constant negative has to have a major impact on the administration perception.

The Five Per-Cent Cut:

The President made a move last week that any reader of this blog with business experience knows about. He asked all departments to prepare budgets with a 5% reduction in spending. With ballooning deficits this is a wise and smart move. Let them cut expenses. They can reduce travel, cut meetings, and find a way. I am sure of that. It is high time to work on the deficit and not only balance the budget, but begin reducing the costs of borrowing the money.
Now as sound as this move is, it won’t be easy. Consider this:
In June the senate failed to approve legislation that would have cut a mere $15 billion from the fiscal 2018 budget. The measure was approved by the House but rejected in the Senate on a procedural vote of 48-50, with GOP Sens. Richard Burr of North Carolina and Susan Collins of Maine voting against it.

News You May Have Not Heard:

Did you hear this about Elizabeth Warren?
Her ex-husband co-founded a DNA testing company and wrote one of the first computer codes for making genetic comparisons.
Jim Warren’s career involved him in the kinds of genetic testing that Elizabeth Warren controversially invoked to prove that she had Native American ancestry. One of the two other co-founders of his testing company, FamilyTreeDNA, has worked with Carlos Bustamante, the Stanford University geneticist who administered a DNA test at Elizabeth Warren’s request.

 

A Mess …….

With less than three weeks to go before the mid terms the MSM surely is covering any news possible that could impact the election.

The Death In Turkey

Let’s see, the Saudis killed a Saudi citizen in the Saudi consulate in Turkey and the MSM is all over the administration as if it did something. “Are you cutting aid?” they asked. “Stopping the military sale”? Cancelling meetings? Did you ask the FBI to investigate?”
Let’s see, he was not a U.S. citizen so how can the FBI investigate an overseas killing?
Cancel the deal? So what do you think the Saudis would do? Not buy what they need? Or, do you think they go to someone like the Russians and buy? You know what the difference about buying from us or the Russians is? First, it is influence in the region where Iran would dominate. Anyone want that? Second, if they buy from Russia what influence do we have? When they need replacement parts to keep things working do we want them coming to us or Russia? If they buy from us they have to come to us. You want them aligning with the Russians and Iranians?
Now the MSM makes this sound like we have to walk away from the deal. I ask you to consider all the facts.
Yes, we have to take action. Yes, we should cancel Mnuchin’s trip. Yes, we need to organize the world to support action that tells the Saudis and every other nation that actions like this will be met with consequences. This is not a U.S. problem, it is a world problem.

In my opinion we should have said this occurred in Turkey and we will support their investigation and allow Saudi Arabia to respond. We think the the U.N. should be involved. We will support any actions the facts support.

The Caravan

Then comes the caravan from Honduras that is growing daily. How is it that congress cannot change the laws to protect our border? We can argue over the wall if that is the answer, but can’t we agree to protect the border? Where do the Democrats stand on this? If they are for open borders then they will support nothing to stop things like this. If they are not for open borders then what is their solution? Will the MSM please as? I know the administrations and Republican position. They make it clear over and over. What does the other side believe?

Elizabeth Warren

 

At first the MSM was so excited as she reported her results. They immeditaely wanted to know when the President was donating a million dollars. Then a funny thing happened. The facts emerged. Once they got out the media (MSM) got awful quiet didn’t they? As the days unfolded it’s clear Senator Warren embarrassed herself and she got trumped.
It turns out that the real story is that Warren’s DNA was compared to Latin Americans, not Native Americans.
“The genetics researcher who reviewed Senator Elizabeth Warren’s, D-Mass, DNA in an attempt to counter President Trump’s ‘Pocahontas’ jibes compared her samples with those from people in Colombia, Mexico, and Peru rather than Native Americans in the U.S.,” the Washington Examiner reported.
“[The researcher] however, didn’t compare Ms. Warren’s DNA against Native Americans who live in the continental U.S., citing cultural reluctance to submit to DNA tests. Instead, he used recent samples from other countries whose populations presumably share a lineage during human settlement of the Americas about 15,000-25,000 years ago,” the newspaper noted

Then add the minuscule percent of that she matched and this was a total disaster for her, the Democratic party and the MSM who took her side.

News The MSM Did Not Have Time For

Think if you heard these stories and why they may not have covered it:

1. The record number of job openings:
“Another great sign for the economy: Job openings hit an all-time high in August.”  The “survey also found a near-record amount of quits for the month, indicating workers’ confidence in finding new positions.”

That’s right. Not only do a record number of Americans have a job, but the administration has created an environment where we have more control over what we’re doing. We know we can find something better for ourselves and our families. People are in charge of their lives again.

2. You hear every possible scandal about a conservative. Did you hear this anywhere: The governor of Alaska says Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott has resigned over unspecified “inappropriate comments.” The move upends what was already a difficult re-election fight for Gov. Bill WalkerMallott’s decision was announced Tuesday, shortly after Walker participated in a debate in Anchorage. Walker, in a release, said he learned late Monday that Mallott had made “inappropriate comments” not suitable for the office.

Walker did not specify what comments Mallott had made.
A spokesman for Walker said there would be a news conference addressing the matter. State health commissioner Valerie Davidson was sworn in as lieutenant governor. Mallott and Walker have shared a brother-like bond since joining forces as part of a “unity ticket” in 2014. Walker is an independent; Mallott is a Democrat.
3. Did you hear this about Elizabeth Warren and a descendent of the real Pocahontas?
Sen. Elizabeth Warren has a new critic of her widely-panned DNA test: an actual descendant of Pocahontas, Debbie White.
Dove 
Porreco appeared on “Tucker Carlson Tonight” to discuss findings that the Massachusetts lawmaker may have between 0.09 percent to 1.5 percent American Indian ancestry.
The study, which counted Mexican, Colombian, and Peruvian DNA in Ms. Warren’s favor, prompted Ms. Porreco to demand an apology.
“It did prove that she wasn’t the Cherokee Indian that she was claiming to be for so long,” she told Mr. Carlson, Townhall reported. “I think she’s guilty of claiming she’s an American Indian but has no proof — and then [is] using it for applications for college, for political reasons.”
4. Another leaker was discovered in government with ties to past administrations. The story:
A senior U.S. Treasury employee has been arrested and charged with leaking to news outlets about financial suspicious transactions on former Trump campaign figures Paul Manafort and Rick Gates, accused Russian agent Maria Butina and the Russian Embassy, federal authorities said Wednesday.
Natalie Mayflower Sours Edwards, 40, of Quinton, Virginia, and a senior adviser in the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network or FinCEN, was arrested Tuesday. She faces one count of unlawfully disclosing suspicious activity reports, or SARs, and one count of conspiracy to disclose those reports.
Each count carries a maximum sentence of five years in prison.
5. When you consider how the MSM covers the news is it any surprise that the weekly ratings show this:

Basic Cable Top 10 – Prime Time (total viewers)

  1. Fox News (3,474,000)
  2. ESPN (3,300,000)
  3. TBS (2,770,000)
  4. MSNBC (1,784,000)
  5. USA (1,119,000)
  6. HGTV (1,111,000)
  7. CNN (1,016,000)
  8. Hallmark Channel (1,005,000)
  9. FS1 (1,003,000)
  10. AMC (970,000)

Basic Cable Top 10 – Total Day (total viewers)

  1. Fox News (2.042,000)
  2. ESPN (1,139,000)
  3. MSNBC (1,024,000)
  4. TBS (833,000)
  5. Nickelodeon (745,000)
  6. CNN (739,000)
  7. Investigation Discovery (666,000)
  8. HGTV (650,000)
  9. Hallmark Channel (605,000)
  10. USA (538,000)

Now onto November …..

A breaking story this AM about Nikki Haley leaving her position at the U.N. at year’s end. That was a surprise. There was no reason other than she wants to go home with family.
Now let’s see if something crazy like this happens. Post election Jeff Sessions resigns or is fired. The new AG becomes Lindsey Graham. Nikki Haley back home in S.C. is selected to replace Graham. Crazy? Maybe.

The Mid-Terms Post Kavanaugh 

With Kavanaugh now behind us, let’s turn our attention to the November mid terms and what we see four weeks from today.

The intensity is certainly up. The noise from both sides is louder. So if we had to predict today what do we see?

We still see the Democrats taking the house and Nancy Pelosi back as speaker.
We see the Republicans holding the senate, possibly adding a seat or two.
Here’s why:

In the mid terms it is all about turnout. Turnout is about enthusiasm to vote. The anti Trump forces are fully motivated and they will vote.
Today the Republicans are more motivated than before the Kavanaugh hearings and vote. They need to hold that a month, and since they won the nomination they may not. Even if they do hold it the anti fervor is still so strong.
1. A survey of 2,672 likely voters by George Mason University shows that likely voters in key districts favor Democrats by a slight margin: 50 percent prefer the Democratic nominee and 46 percent prefer the Republican. By way of comparison, in 2016 these same districts favored Republican candidates over Democratic ones by 15 percentage points, 56 percent to 41 percent.
There you see the difference and why we think the Democrats will get to the 218 seats needed.

2. Women are driving Democratic support in the battleground districts, favoring the party’s candidates by 54 percent to 40 percent. Men in these districts favor Republicans by 51 percent to 46 percent. That gender difference continues a pattern that has been seen throughout the year in other polls and in special elections.

3. As many as 68 seats currently held by Republicans are firmly in play. They are rated as ‘Lean Republican’ or worse for the GOP — presenting a stark contrast to the Democratic side, where only a half-dozen Democratic seats are in similar jeopardy.

4. According to Politico, “there are now 209 seats either firmly or leaning in the Democratic column”. That’s only 9 shy of the 218 the party needs to wrest away control of the chamber. The Republican number is estimated to 193, so they have a longer way to go.

In the senate here’s why we see Republicans holding the chamber.

The competitive races that can see seats change parties are more on the Democrat side.
Republican seats in jeopardy are in Arizona, Tennessee and Nevada. We think they can lose two of those. (they have 51 seats now)
Democratic seats in jeopardy are: Florida, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Montana and West Virginia. We think they can lose three.

So, we see a divided government going forward with a Republican President and Senate and a Democratic house.

A month, of course, is forever in politics, so anything can happen. World events can influence something, the President can tweet a message that moves the needle. Maybe Republicans develop a single message that talks about the progress of the past two years and the need to stay the course and scare people not to change the congress. Maybe Schumer and team make it about healthcare and an administration dividing the country. We’ll see and
revisit these predictions, but as of today this is our view.

The MSM Reporting

One thing for sure the MSM won’t be assisting the administration and Republicans. Here’s the latest MRC analysis on coverage. 92% negative on the administration. Below we put the full MRC story, but the Republicans must overcome that to make any gains.

———————————————————–

In four weeks, Americans go to the polls for the midterm elections that the news media are casting as a referendum on the Trump presidency. Over the summer, the broadcast networks have continued to pound Donald Trump and his team with the most hostile coverage of a President in TV news history — 92 percent negative, vs. just eight percent positive.

For this report, MRC analysts reviewed all 1,007 evening news stories (1,960 minutes of airtime) about the Trump administration on ABC, CBS and NBC from June 1 to September 30, tallying the coverage of each topic and all evaluative comments made by anchors, reporters and non-partisan sources (such as voters or experts).

The results show that, over the past four months, nearly two-thirds of evening news coverage of the Trump presidency has been focused on just five main topics: the Russia investigation; immigration policy; the Kavanaugh nomination; North Korea diplomacy; and U.S. relations with Russia. The networks’ coverage of all of these topics has been highly negative, while bright spots for the administration such as the booming economy received extremely little coverage (less than one percent of the four-month total).

Once again, the ongoing Russia investigation received more evening news coverage (342 minutes) than any other individual topic. This does not include the 86 minutes spent on the Michael Cohen investigation and guilty plea, except for a few minutes talking about the possibility that Cohen would cooperate with special counsel Robert Mueller.

Since the beginning of the Trump administration, the three networks have spent 1,975 minutes — nearly 33 hours — on the Russia investigation, or nearly 18 percent of all of their coverage of the Trump presidency. As we have previously reported, virtually all of that coverage has been negative, while almost none of it has focused on any of the controversies involving Mueller or his investigative team.

■ As we reported in July, the networks’ coverage of Trump’s immigration policies has been fiercely negative since the first days of his administration. That trend continued this summer, as the networks churned out 308 minutes of mostly (94%) negative coverage the administration’s immigration policies from June to September.

The networks’ attention to this topic has waned over the summer. In June, the three evening broadcasts spent 250 minutes on immigration, but that fell to just 35 minutes in July, 18 minutes in August and a mere five minutes in September as the Kavanaugh confirmation battle took over the airwaves.

 After Brett Kavanaugh was announced the night of July 9, the networks gave his nomination relatively little airtime. From July 10 through September 6, the three evening newscasts together spent a mere 32 minutes on the Kavanaugh confirmation battle.

That changed on September 13, when the first anonymous allegations against Kavanaugh were revealed. From then until the end of September, the networks produced an additional 249 minutes of coverage centered on accusations of youthful sexual misconduct, or roughly eight times more than was devoted to the earlier debate about Kavanaugh’s judicial record and philosophy. [This heavy coverage continued in early October, leading up to the Senate’s approval of Kavanaugh’s nomination on October 6.]

The chart (above) reflects only the evaluative (82% negative) statements about how President Trump and his team handled the Kavanaugh nomination, including criticism of the President for dismissing the accusations, and for supposedly limiting the scope of the FBI probe.

Comments about Kavanaugh himself were far more numerous, but just as negative (83%) —  nearly all of it focused on the late September misconduct allegations. His performance at the first round of hearings actually earned praise from journalists, especially CBS’s Jan Crawford, who enthused on the September 6 Evening News: “The main takeaway is that Judge Kavanaugh, he is performing well….It’s almost like he’s giving a judicial seminar on these areas of the law.”

Once the coverage moved to the sexual assault allegations, reporters offered nightly recitations of the highly inflammatory (and uncorroborated) charges against Kavanaugh, including that he enabled gang rapes of high school girls in the early 1980s. It is impossible to recall the networks ever giving publicity to a more damning accusation that had not either originated from law enforcement or at least been corroborated by journalistic investigation.

 The evening newscasts spent 179 minutes on the administration’s diplomacy with North Korea, much of it focused on the June 12 summit between Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un. In a one-week period from June 9 to June 15, the networks spent a combined 96 minutes on North Korea, or more than half of the total for the four months we examined.

Reaction to the summit was initially somewhat positive — CBS’s expert Mike Morell, a former Obama administration official, pronounced on the June 12 Evening News that it was “a diplomatic win for the United States,” but cautioned that “we are far from a strategic win.”

As the weeks wore on, reporters focused on the lack of specific progress, leading to the 90 percent negative spin on this topic. On the September 10 Nightly News, for example, Andrea Mitchell highlighted the negative take of NBC News Korean Affairs analyst Victor Cha, who declared: “If the President is saying one thing, but the intelligence is showing something else, it’s hard to believe that the diplomacy is working.”

The networks spent 151 minutes on the Trump administration’s approach to Russia, virtually all of it (99%) negative. As with the North Korean summit, the networks’ interest peaked in the days surrounding President Trump’s July 16 summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with nearly 70 percent of the coverage (107 minutes) taking place during the seven days between July 13 and July 19.

Unlike with North Korea, the networks’ immediate reaction was negative. On the July 16 Nightly News, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell exemplified the media elite’s scolding tone: “He [President Trump] showed he was not willing to stand up to the Russian leader….It is profoundly demoralizing to American intelligence professionals and diplomats around the world.”

+++++

Amid this sea of coverage, the networks spent almost no airtime — a mere 14 minutes, or 0.7 percent — on the administration’s economic achievements, including the positive effects of the tax cuts and deregulation, plus historic job growth. Indeed, the only aspect of the Trump economic program that interested the networks during the past four months has been the President’s use of tariffs to push for better trade deals (80 minutes).

Coverage of Trump’s trade policy emphasized the downside: potential higher costs to consumers or the possible harm to industries that rely on foreign imports, as opposed to the potential for job growth or higher wages for American workers. That made the spin of trade news nearly as negative as the other major topics (88% negative), overwhelming the positive (89%) but puny coverage of the broader economic record.

 

Post Kavanaugh ….

The country needs to take a deep breath after this conformation process. It was nasty, partisan and a new low for the politicians we put in place to lead us. Now it’s up to you the American voter to fix things. What America do you want going forward? Your vote, and assuring that people who think like you vote is the key. If you support the left and want Jerald Nadler and Maxine Waters to begin impeachment proceedings against Kavanaugh and President Trump then vote liberal Democrat. If you think a good man was tarnished in this process and the court is better for his presence then vote for Republican conservatives. If you’re still unsure of the whole process we just experienced I suggest you go watch Susan Collins speech on the floor when she announced her vote. That speech put it all in perspective for me.

On the Sunday news shows the partisan divide was still evident. Here’s our one most lasting impression from them.  The press blames everyone for the state of the union except themselves. They never look at what they said or how they said it. They judge others. We think they are as large a part of the problem as anyone. They give credence to arguments. They report them as fact. They take a side. Who judges them? What grade would you give them in this process? Ours would be a failing one for their performance.

We’ll close our comments on the nomination where we began. Where is there a single piece of collaborating evidence to convict anyone? Of the five charges that arose four proved to be nothing more than made up. It all came down to Dr. Ford, who we believe something happened to. But when you name someone and the three witnesses you provide all deny they were there, you have to have something. There is nothing. When you’re accused, and every supposed witness backs you, even the accusers best friend, then you are entitled to the presumption of innocence. Anything else is absurd.
What we really need now is a full investigation to help Dr. Ford. What did happen and when? Who may it have been? Did anyone talk to the two men who said it was them? Why was this poor woman not told the committee would go to her? Why was her name not protected? Why are those who lied in the other cases not being held accountable? We need to prosecute those who bring false charges to make an example. If our society is based upon honesty and trust then those who commit a crime should pay, and those who lie about them should pay. Is that so hard?

Friday’s Employment News:

Lost amid all the noise about the nomination was the employment news on Friday. You likely heard that the unemployment rate was down to 3.7%, the lowest level in 50 years. There was one interesting stat that is not covered. Remember how government jobs were driving increased employment? Well that’s over under this administration. Here’s the numbers:
The number of people employed by the federal government declined by 1,000 in September. Since President Donald Trump took office, federal employment has declined by 16,000.

In addition, the Hispanic unemployment rate fell to the lowest level on record. (4.5%). Unemployment among black Americans declined three-tenths of a point to 6 percent. 

So the news was all good on the economy and employment. It was just lost amid all the supreme court noise.

Start the clock ….

Start the clock on getting to a vote. Shortly before 10:00 p.m. last night Mitch McConnell filed a motion for cloture. That move limits debate on the nomination and forces a final vote as to whether Judge Kavanaugh will become Justice Kavanaugh. This motion limits debate.  Under Senate rules, the motion must now “ripen” for a day. Then the full Senate will vote on Friday on the motion to close debate and bring it to a vote.
That vote tomorrow on cloture will tell you all you need to know. Are the votes there?
It’s hard for us to see why Murkowski and Collins would vote “no”. If this FBI report has no more evidence than we heard all week, where is the reason to deny this man the role? In America, I think, we still require some evidence of wrongdoing.

The new refrain over night was twofold. First we can’t confirm him because he is too partisan. Forget he has sat for twelve years on the second highest court and his judicial temperament is exemplary. Forget his record in appeals is flawless. He is unqualified says Schumer, Pelosi and team.
Then consider the point we made yesterday. Justice Ginsburg said if Trump wins she is moving to New Zealand. Do these same people think she should be impeached now because she is unfair?
I’ll ask this question again. Think over your lifetime and the supreme court decisions that were made. How many times can you recall Democratic appointees siding with the conservative side? I honestly can’t on any issue it matters. Have Republican appointees sided with liberal issues? I know many.

The second refrain today will be the FBI did not interview Dr. Ford and Judge Kavanaugh. The same FBI the Democrats have loved since Trump became President is now the villain. Suddenly they can’t do their job. Well I have a problem with the stance Ford’s attorney took on an issue. The senate committee asked her for information from her therapy sessions (to see if Kavanaugh’s name is in it. The story is it isn’t) and information on the polygraph she took. What questions were asked? Where was it done? Small things like that. The attorney’s reaction? Let the FBI come out here and interview her and we’ll share with them.  This from Politico today:
Ford offered Wednesday to give the FBI therapist notes and information about her polygraph test that Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) has requested, if she is interviewed. ” We are profoundly disappointed that after the tremendous sacrifice she made in coming forward, those directing the FBI investigation were not interested in seeking the truth,” Ford’s lawyers said in a statement late Wednesday night.
It would seem to me if they were interested in getting the truth out at this key time they would turn everything over. What they are trying to do is say this process was flawed. Do you think the committee bent over to treat her right? Treat her with dignity and class? 

Remember how we were saying some Democrats will jump on board only if there are already 50 votes and how they use “bipartisan” but never when it matters? This too from Politico
“Manchin, for his part, sounds like he’s leaning ‘Yes,’ and it certainly is gettable for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and the GOP leadership. It’s clear Manchin doesn’t want to be the 50th vote for Kavanaugh, but it seems like he’d be OK with being the 51st or 52nd, barring any new developments.”
Is that bipartisan? Is that political courage? Is that standing for your beliefs? Is that standing for what you believe?

Let’s get to the vote.

Heading to the outcome …

I think we’re finally in the home stretch of the Kavanaugh hearings and decision. Here’s our quick thoughts:

1  Why the President had to abandon his neutral approach of waiting for the FBI report to mock  Dr. Ford last night is beyond us. A sad move.
2. We have no idea what Flake, Murkowski and Collins will do.
3. From all appearances at least two will vote yes unless there is supporting evidence for the charges, but you cannot be sure.
4. If two announce they are yes then watch the Democratic opportunists who want they say are “bipartisan” say they will vote yes. Remember them and their hypocrisy because they would not have done so if it mattered.

On the charges:

Isn’t it odd that there are no charges, incidents or anything for the entire 30 years of his working career?
There were five sexual charges in all. Two were dropped when the person reporting was asked a question. They decided to admit they were untrue.

The third (sexual parties of rape and spiking drinks) is clearly a lie. Why Michael Avenatti,  of Stormy Daniels fame, would do this is beyond me. He was on a roll, and now he is no better than an ambulance chaser. His deposition and her interview on NBC changed so much that they could face charges. The client herself (Julie Swetnick) with her checkered past better be careful.

The second charger, Deborah Ramirez (the one the NYT wouldn’t even print) has her issues and the Democrats appear to running from her. She accused Kavanaugh of exposing himself at a party at Yale University. Kavanaugh has denied the incident took place.  At first she couldn’t remember and wasn’t sure. Magically she recalled that it did happen and it was Kavanaugh. Proof?
She gave names and the first they called said “what?” and that it never happened. The second is deceased. The other two have no response. Credibility = zero. Not a single collaboration.

That leaves Dr. Ford. As we said on the day she testified, she was credible. You know what is missing though? Two things. First, any fact that supports what she says. Any fact.
The three people she said were there all said it didn’t happen. One was her best friend, who since she left her in the home after the incident might remember.
Second, any investigation into her. What do we know about her? Was she a drinker and doing drugs at 15? Were parties like she described a part of her life? Is it true she trained people on how to take polygraphs? Why wasn’t she aware the senate committee would come to her? We all knew that. Why wasn’t she aware that the hearing could have been private? We all knew that. Why did she say she couldn’t fly to delay things? That turns out not to be true. Did she really work for a Soros organization?

The questions are many and we should learn more about her. In fact when this is over why won’t Republicans have the courage to bring charges against those who lied? People came forward to get their name out and told lies. It is time to stop this and bring charges. Why won’t it happen?

The Vote:

Now we hear the drumbeat from Democrats again (even Coons) as to why the rush? In about 40 instances on that last day of hearings we heard the Democratic members say a version of this: “What’s the problem with a three or four day wait so we can have the FBI look at the facts”. Well they got a week and now what do we hear? The FBI is almost done, we need another delay. Just proof that no time is good enough for them. Will the American people see through this?

The sad argument that Kavanaugh’s demeanor is unfitting a supreme court justice. Are you serious? He was so monotone the first days you mocked his lack of emotion. He sat through you calling him evil, a crook, a racist and every other thing you can think of. After the hearing ends you drag out he is a sexual rapist. He gets angry and fights back and now you say his temperament is bad. There is a bad temperament here but it’s not Kavanaugh. As further proof look at his demeanor for twelve years on the second highest court in the nation. Nothing but praise for his actions, written decisions and temperament.

Finally it is my opinion that without the MSM support this would  have been long over. Think if these charges were brought against any Democratic liberal hero. Would the MSM be doing what they are, or be using the refrain from the old Wendy’s commercial, “Where’s The Beef”. Because where is the beef?

 

Another Kavanaugh Week ….

As anyone could easily predict the “deal” that Flake made was too undefined and wishy washy. We heard it live as many of you did. We will they said (Flake and Coon), have the FBI “look into the current details only and do so within a week”. After all that was what the Democrats on the committee had been asking for all day. We want an FBI investigation they said over and over. It will only take “three to fours days” they said. Well they got a week. Now?

Now they say it is not enough. The NYT today has this headline:
Democrats Denounce Limits on F.B.I.’s Kavanaugh Inquiry as a ‘Farce’
You saw them all over the news shows yesterday that the scope is not wide enough. Wait, you agreed on the time and scope, it was what you wanted. You see it will never be enough. Why? The nominee is a conservative.

So get ready, they know the Ford charges will not be substantiated. So buckle up for the “drunken Kavanaugh”. He drank in H.S. and college. Suddenly kids drinking and smoking are important to Democrats. Obama did drugs in college; hey, who didn’t they said. The difference is they have a compliant MSM who will beat the drums and impressional individuals will be swayed by them.

The second new attack is this if confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court, he should recuse himself from cases involving congressional Democrats because of his “partisan” performance during last week’s Senate Judiciary Committee hearing.“I think the proper thing would be, yes,” Rep. Jerrold Nadler said on ABC’s “This Week.” “I was astonished at his rant. … He’s supposed to be nonpartisan.”
This line will get a lot of coverage and support from the MSM. Let me ask a question, is he as unfair then, as Judge Ginsburg must be, since she said if Trump wins she is moving to New Zealand?

Therein lies the difference. A conservative judge says Congress makes the laws. We the judges enforce it. Liberals want judges who will make law. You should decide what you want and support candidates that will do that.

Did you see this on the MSM today? Remember the Democratic woman the Republicans brought in to question Doctor Ford? She wrote a memo with her thoughts. She said there is no case here. From today’s Washington Post:
“In the five-page memo, obtained by The Washington Post, Rachel Mitchell outlines more than half a dozen reasons why she thinks the testimony of Christine Blasey Ford — who has accused Kavanaugh of assaulting her at a house in suburban Maryland when they were teenagers in the early 1980s — has some key inconsistencies.

“‘A ‘he said, she said’ case is incredibly difficult to prove. But this case is even weaker than that,’ Mitchell writes in the memo, sent Sunday night to all Senate Republicans. ‘Dr. Ford identified other witnesses to the event, and those witnesses either refuted her allegations or failed to corroborate them'”.

One funny offshoot from the hearings was this statement from Senator Elizabeth Warren yesterday. After saying for a year she had no plans to run for President in 2020, she now says after the November election she will “look at it”. Why the change? Because last week her potential opponents in the primary like Senators Harris and Booker, were getting major coverage and collecting funding over their roles. Elizabeth needed to change plans.

Jim Comey jumped into the FBI investigation with a column in the NYT today. He claims the FBI can get it done in time but the rules set for the bureau’s are “deeply flawed, and apparently designed to thwart the fact-gathering process.”  The rules that Coon and Flake agreed too, but that Flake failed to get in writing and lay out clearly.

Finally, there is at least one former Yale classmate saying Kavanaugh was drunk and started a fight. He is getting coverage. We are surprised that over the weekend there weren’t ten or more additional sensational charges. Maybe they’re saving them for later in the week so they can avoid a final vote. The vote that Flake and Coon said was fair after the FBI investigation.
Oh yea, there were a whole bunch of woman who were classmates (and even dated Kavanaugh) that said he was nothing but a gentlemen and not a drunk. Did you hear them?