Events Unfolding ….

Unfolding Events — All To Impact The November Mid-Terms
  1. The Manafort trial is underway. A quiet day one as jury selection is completed. Watch the coverage of this. If Trump gets tied in somehow it will hurt. If Manafort walks then its the opposite. If he is judged quilty but no ties to Trump the spin will be loud on both sides.
  2. The administration wants new tax cuts. They have talked two things. First, making the personal cuts from earlier permanent. Second, introducing an inflation aspect to long term investments. What is that? Let’s use some round numbers to make this easy:
    You bought a home for $100,000 thirty years ago. You are selling it now for $500,000. Under current law you would pay taxes on $400,000 of gains. The proposal is considering inflation over that time. Thus, adjusted for inflation the $100,000 becomes $300,000 and your tax liability is now on $200,000 only.
    Republicans love this because they say it reduces hard working and investment gains for people. Democrats are against it because they say it favors the wealthy and reduces government income and ability to spend.
    Republicans want to push this and think this creates a wedge issue to get you out to vote.
    Democrats think by blocking it they can portray the Republicans as the party of the rich.
  3. North Korea is building as an issue in November. The Democrats and MSM continue to believe the President was duped in their summit. For his part, the President talks of good signs. No missile tests, the dismantling of a few sites, and the return of remains. Who is right? Well yesterday both sides got ammunition, of which only one received any coverage.
    The one that did was that the United States detected renewed activity at a North Korea site that was used for long range missiles. This raised flags and got a lot of coverage.
    The other was that North and South Korea were meeting for the second time since June (in a DMZ border town) as a follow up from the April summit “to defuse tensions and halt all hostile acts”.
    North Korea can make Trump look brilliant, or like he was taken.
  4. In a book to be released September 11, investigative reporter Bob Woodward has a “blockbuster”. The book’s title is: ‘Fear: Trump in the White House’. The book is promised to delve into the dysfunctions of President Trump’s White House.
    For those familiar with Bob Woodward, you know this will be sensational and a MSM story for weeks.
  5. The vote on Brett Kavanaugh to sit on the bench. He met with his first Democratic Senator this week. So far, no surprises. Rand Paul who had voted “no” before on him, announced he is now voting yes. That leaves the only drama being the two Republicans (Collins and Murkowski) and what the red state Dems do.
    Senator Manchin, after his meeting, was still walking the middle line. He can’t go against the President with his reelection coming in November. Chuck Schumer is pressing for the Democrats to not commit any yes votes yet. What did he say after his two hour meeting?
    To please Trump supporters he repeatedly called it a “very productive” meeting.

    To please the left he said that “he likely would seek a second sitdown after the Supreme Court nominee’s confirmation hearings”.
    Thus, he extends the amount of time he can remain undecided and please all.  Politics in action.

    By the way, yesterday was Anthony Kennedy’s last day on the court. He is now retired.
    And did you see Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s comment this week that she intends to spend five more years on the court? If you’re conservative you hope she is  lying about this as she did about moving to New Zealand if Trump won the election.

  6. Tariffs. Time is passing and the eyeball to eyeball has seen no blinking. This can really start to hurt the U.S. and world economies. Is the President willing to compromise? We’re not really sure he, is and China in particular sees this as survival for their economy. It will be a big issue if no progress by November. The stakes are high.
  7. Tomorrow the U.S. and Mexico are meeting to discuss NAFTA. Imagine if they work out deal, what kind of impact would that have?

                                                          OTHER NEWS

You know all the news that John Kelly was either quitting or getting fired? Well, Kelly announced yesterday that he was asked by the President to stay though 2020 and he agreed.

                                   Some Rating News For July

Fox News continued its command of the basic cable landscape by winning the July time period. Fox News won primetime by averaging 2.41 million viewers to MSNBC’s 1.66 million and CNN’s 891,000. They also marked 25 consecutive months as the most-watched basic cable network in total day.
They won 13 of the top 20 cable news programs in total viewers.

Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson won the top-two spots in cable news ratings. Rachel Maddow was third, Laura Ingraham fourth and The Five on Fox was fifth. So four of the top five shows were FoxNews shows.

Here’s an interesting chart on trusted stations. Note Fox is number 2 (behind BBC) at 87%. MSNBC (80%) and CNN (69%) trail badly.

 Fox Business also won the Business Day Rankings:

  • FBN: 203,000 total viewers
  • CNBC: 147,000 total viewersFox had 7 of the top 10 business news program shows.

The Week To Be ….

The week to be and some news to know:

First, the Paul Manafort trial will begin and the coverage will be sensational with leads on the morning and evening news. Now pay attention to the charges and trial. Notice that everything he is charged with has nothing to do with the 2016 campaign. This is all his business dealings and money laundering going back a decade or more. However, watch the coverage as the MSM will not tell you much about that and Fox will do it constantly.

That said, we can’t help but notice the continued attack on Robert Mueller by President Trump. What that tells us is the President is worried about Mueller’s investigation into other areas beyond collusion. We think its tied to his past financial dealings. Which ties back to why he never released his tax returns.

Intersting story in today’s WSJ that you won’t see or hear in the MSM: “Touring farms and factories, Kim Jong Un is signaling a shift. The North Korean leader seems to be turning his attention to the livelihood of his people, making a series of trips that reflect his stated new focus on economic development”.
In the past it was military first. The story was he recognized how bad things were and needed to make life better in his country, thus the de-nuke willingness. We’ll see, but maybe this can work.

Another story in the Journal today:
“The New York Times’ publisher said he ‘‘implored’’ President Trump to reconsider media attacks. A.G. Sulzberger released a statement after Mr. Trump commented on Twitter about their meeting earlier this month. White House aides had requested the meeting not be made public, according to Mr. Sulzberger”.
Well how about the 90% plus negative coverage cease, too, and the NYT among others begin reporting the news as they’re supposed to?

With things looking bleaker for the November mid terms the President yesterday threatened a government shut down in September. Why? He wants border funding. Think what a weak issue that could turn out to be. First, a government shut down never works. Second, he is shutting down because he wants a border wall. Well that would be popular, but when Democrats say “We thought you said a million times Mexico was paying for it, was that another lie?” What are he and the Republicans going to say?

Speaking of November we keep writing here that the anti people vote in the off year elections. Here’s a chart one state (Connecticut) released on new registrations of young voters this year and the last two off year timeframes:

 

This week …..

We were quiet this week as the news was dominated by the same theme — Trump and Russia. There was no need to add anymore to that than we already have. The President is still trying to dig out of that disastrous news conference and summit.

Since that day the President’s personal approval numbers have been down slightly, but his disapproval numbers have gone up. The Republicans still support him at high numbers, the Democrats disapprove, but independents have moved to the anti area. This has impacted the generic November polling which has seen a widening of the gap between the parties.

Remember (as we have mentioned numerous times) the anti vote in an off presidential year is motivated to get out. You can see and feel the fervent emotion they have for November. The people of the party in office do not vote in the same numbers. Right now we don’t see the pro administration voters going out in the numbers the anti will.

Thus, we still see the Democrats regaining the house if the election were today and the senate showing little change. That will bring Trump more trouble, as some will push for impeachment charges and nothing will get passed. It will set up a battle royal for 2020.

What’s next on the MSM all day coverage for an anti story? 

They will continue to harp on tariffs and how they are hurting U.S. workers. You can count on them presenting human interest stories on how people are suffering because of them. Announcements like Wednesday’s with the Euro Union will be treated as “promises” to find a solution. Remember, there is no deal here yet, just a promise to work toward one.

There will be a two/three day story of a bad move to bar a CNN reporter from a meeting. Just an amateur move. The President often accommodates the yelled questions. To bar the reporter now shows pettiness against a network. A bad move allowing the networks to attack with credibility. How can experienced professionals have made this decision?

The Cohen tapes. Oh how they have played this up. Except for one thing. When I heard the tape in full I didn’t hear anything that Trump did wrong. In fact I came away with just one wrongdoing. Who leaked the tape? How did Stormy’s lawyer know what was there before it was out? There was wrongdoing, but not the kind the MSM was reporting.
Plus, now we hear that Cohen had a conversation with CNN where he told them he paid Stormy with his own money. How come that is not reported?
You can count on the MSM running with this until it becomes clear there is “no there, there”.

Speaking of Stormy, remember when she was cover to cover on some networks? What happened? We know her husband filed for divorce this week, claiming “adultery”.  Wonder how he figured that out?

And, don’t worry when this news dies down, there is a book coming out in three weeks. This one is by Omarosa. Remember her being led out of the White House? She has written a “tell all” about her time there and with Trump at his TV show. The name of the book is —
“Unhinged: An Insider’s Account of the Trump White House”.

The move by some Republicans in Congress to impeach Rob Rosenstein is another ill fated one. It has no chance to advance. It has no credibility. What it does have is the ability to make Democrats wanting to impeach the President seem normal. What were these congressional members thinking they were accomplishing? They had Rosenstein in a hearing and never laid a glove on him. A bad move.

The Really Big Worry

The really big worry for the November is what the Mueller probe comes up with. It has been clear to us for a good while now though there is no collusion, there is something Mueller is pursuing. He is not coming out and saying Trump is clean and never lied. He is coming with something and whatever that is can tip even more elections.

 

 

 

Interesting …..

A few interesting stories to share this AM:

Story one is from The Hill and has this headline:
“Trump is winning the trade war because China has more to lose”.
The story says:
“Don’t look now, but there are numerous signs that President Trump is winning the trade war with China. While the battle over tariffs and protecting intellectual property may eventually damage the United States’ economy, there are signs that China is already paying a price for its refusal to bend to Trump’s demands.
One indicator of that price is the sharp plunge in China’s stock exchanges. Since the White House announced the first tariffs — on washing machines and solar cells on Jan. 22 — the Shanghai Index of Chinese stocks is down nearly 20 percent, while the S&P 500 is off less than 1 percent”.
The trade war is dangerous and has a lot more to play out, but don’t believe all the doom and gloom that we are losing it. Just remember the trade deficit we have and think who would get hurt the most.

Story Two is from an interview George Soros gave to the New York Times.
He said: Former President Barack Obama was “actually my greatest disappointment”. An early supporter of Mr. Obama’s 2008 election campaign, he told The Times that he felt let down on a professional level by the lack of attention he received from the former president during his eight years in office.
Mr. Obama “closed the door on me” after he was elected, he said in the interview. “He made one phone call thanking me for my support, which was meant to last for five minutes, and I engaged him, and he had to spend another three minutes with me, so I dragged it out to eight minutes.”
“He was someone who was known from the time when he was competing for the editorship of The Harvard Law Review to take his supporters for granted and to woo his opponents”.
Wow, that a surprise to us. Soros has long been presented as the liberal funding lion. Who knew he was upset?

He closed the interview with this
He would be open to potentially funding moderate Republicans such as  Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, but cautioned his support would likely hurt either’s prospects.
“I don’t particularly want to be a Democrat,” he told The Times.
Who knew?

Story three. Remember when we were told over and over that Jim Comey was a Republican? (Like we do Rosenstein and Mueller). Then we hear how active his wife and family were for Hillary. Then we saw his wife and daughters out protesting the day of inauguration at the rally in DC. Now Comey says this:
Former FBI director  James Comey is urging American voters to support Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections.“This Republican Congress has proven incapable of fulfilling the Founders’ design that ‘Ambition must … counteract ambition,’” Comey said in a tweet late Tuesday.All who believe in this country’s values must vote for Democrats this fall. Policy differences don’t matter right now. History has its eyes on us.”

Wait, we should vote Democratic values Jim? And what are those? Are they no borders? Guaranteed income without work? Blame America first for any conflicts and ill in the world? Do away with ICE? Create sanctuary cities and states? Blame the police and military first? Abortions up to birth? More taxes for the working person?
Exactly what values are you supporting?

Along those lines we were told the future of the Democratic party was along the lines of Ocasio- Cortez, the young woman who won that congressional race in NY. Tom Perez, the head of the party, told us that. Well let’s see; she:
Called on protesters to “occupy” airports, border crossings, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement offices nationwide.
“We have to occupy all of it,” she said this week. “We need to occupy every airport. We need to occupy every border. We need to occupy every ICE office”.
She then said the reason unemployment was so low was because people had two jobs. They were working 60, 70 and 80 hours a week.
She criticized Isreal’s “occupation” in the middle east before being called on it and saying she really didn’t know enough about the issue to comment.

Are those the values Jim Comey and his family want us to support?

Story Four. The House voted yesterday on ICE. Did you know that?
The House did not vote on a Democratic proposal that would have elminated ICE. Instead Paul Ryan and team brought a bill to support ICE. They debated and had a vote. Here’s the results:
The Vote was 244 to 35 to support ICE.
226 Republicans voted for ICE. 18 Democrats voted yes.
1 Republican voted no. 34 Democrats did.
133 Democrats voted present — preferring not to take a side.

There you have it. Don’t you think the MSM should have covered this?

Story 5: Fallout for the President is showing up in the polls from his Helsinki meeting.
The daily Rasmussen poll which has had him at the highs of 48% approval now show him down to 44%. His disapproval which was at 52% is up to 54%.
The Economist has him at 44% approval and 52% disapproval.
Reuters/Ipsos has it 42% approval and 54% disapproval.
He has never been able to reach the 50% approval number, or fall below the 50% disapproval. We think there is more downside that show up this week before it levels off.

Those same polls show Democratic advantages of 8%,5% and 9% in generic congressional preferences for the November election.

 

Story 6. A big decision was made by the President. We are building a new Air Force One as this one is 30 years old. After approval the thought hit him on the colors of the plane. The current blue and white design  was set by President and Mrs. Kennedy. Mr Trump wants the new design to be red, white and blue. There are some who are not happy about this. You can guess who they are.

 

Attempt at recovery …

So twenty four hours later the President makes an attempt to correct the Helsinki mess by saying he used a wrong word.
Now it would have been more believable if he had stuck to his written notes. Why did he have to ad lib “and other countries too”? Why can’t he simply attack Putin and the Russians as he has almost everyone else? There is something here, more than we just want to get along with them.

There is no reason for us to go back over this, the MSM will do enough of that for you. Just know that we think the President is right on most foreign policy issues and initiatives. Russia is not one of them.

Now the hysteria of the left and the MSM will help Trump recover support quicker than he should. They are so far out there that you find yourself shaking your head in the same manner you did with the Helsinki press conference.

By the way, we find interesting (and supportive of what we speculated) that it was Trump’s idea to announce the twelve indictments before the meeting. It was an attempt to strengthen his hand in the discussions. Think about that. A good strategy and plan, but certainly played wrong in the end.

As for President Obama lecturing us on Russia, spare me please. Your eight years resulted in worse relationships with our countries than when you started. It was under your watch that they had so little respect that these actions occurred. You should be embarrassed and not lecturing. Stick to other issues.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after the summit showed this:
42% approve of the President’s job performance.
However, 55% disapprove his handling of relations with Russia.
The message is clear.

Some Other Interesting Issues

As Republicans meet to plan on making the tax cuts permanent, consider:
The Democrats voted 100% against the tax cuts as you may recall.
One major reason they gave was the individual cuts were permanent for business but temporary for individuals. That was misleading of course.
It was temporary for individuals, as you may recall, because of a law that required it. Well now they can be made permanent.
So what will the Democrats do? Will they change their tune and say the tax cuts are good and working, or vote no again?

A second vote that is coming up is the Democratic proposal to get rid of ICE. Normally the house leadership would let the bill die, but they are now planning on bringing it to the full floor and letting members vote on it. Again, this puts Democrats in a tough spot. Their far left wants  to get rid of ICE. The American people think that is crazy.

One more interesting thing. Four states are suing the administration on the tax cut. They are New York, Connecticut, New Jersey and Maryland.
They are saying that it discriminates against their states because of they have high taxes and only ten thousand is now deductible.
Remember when we discussed this at length as the bill was being argued? What was happening was high tax states were raising taxes and telling citizens not to worry, they could deduct from the federal government. The low tax states thought that was unfair.
So here we are with a new playing field. What can high tax states do? They can lower taxes, spend less and rein in costs. Instead these four decide to sue the government.
They have no chance of winning in court as we see it.

Just Poor ……

SPECIAL EDITION 

As we watched the post meeting press conference, we kept saying “this is the worst performance by a President in a meeting with Russian leaders in memory”. Its hard to imagine how the President could have done worse.

The man who has not hesitated to preach “America First” to every friend, was no where on that stage. The man who has taken on all comers from the day he announced, did not take on Putin. He looked weak, ineffectual, and on the side of Putin and Russia, no matter what his intelligence officers said. The President embarrassed himself and our nation with that weak performance. He has done himself and our nation harm.

We criticized the NYT this morning on their headline today saying Putin won the meeting, before it even began, because Trump agreed to meet him. He did win the meeting, but he did on the stage when a weak Trump was over matched.

In yesterday’s blog, in preparation for the meeting, we wrote this
“I know this, Putin is a bad man and evil. He never got over Russia losing the cold war. He has been trying to reverse things since. He is not one to deal with. He is not trustworthy. He does not want anything except Russian dominance. Bush looked into his soul and saw a decent man. He was wrong. Obama promised flexibility after the election. He was wrong. Let’s hope Trump is Trump here and doesn’t fall into that trap”.

Well, Trump wasn’t Trump and fell into a worse trap. He now has to figure out how to dig out.

We continue to believe the Russians got involved in our election to create as much dissent and chaos as possible. That is why the day after the election they supported the “Not My President” rallies. They want a divided America.

The President by this poor performance gave:
Far more credence to the Russian hacking than there was before.
The number of people who believe there was collusion will go up.
The number who believe Trump is hiding something will go up.
The number who believe the Russians have something on Trump will go up.
The number who think from the beginning of the campaign that there was a reason Trump would not criticize Putin or Russia for a reason will go up.
His greatest supporters will now have questions.

Exactly how does the man who:
Goes to a NATO meeting and calls out the leaders to their faces cower here?
Gets into a public argument with the leader of Canada, cower here?
How does the man who wants to build a wall on the southern border, cower here?
How does the man who goes to England and puts down the country’s embattled Prime Minister, cower here?
How does he call out Angela Markel on the pipeline and when asked here, answer cowardly?

It’s going to take his supporters a long time to recover from this. He did more to hurt himself than any “fake news” paper or station has done.
He did more to provide his opponents ammunition for the November elections than they dreamed possible.

You can watch the news coverage tonight, but this was a disaster.

Here we go …..

Here we go with the Putin meeting today. Watch how the MSM covers this and how many see a conspiracy. I still remember when summits were big events that brought hope of dialogue and peace. That was BT (Before Trump). Now they’re examples of how the President is beholden to Russia and oh yea, he already lost because he is showing up.
(See Sunday’s NYT for extensive coverage followed by this mornings lead story- “Just Sitting Down With Trump, Putin Comes Out Ahead”. The paper of record writing the news before the news).

I don’t know what will come out of this session, but I promise the MSM will have a negative spin. I know this, Putin is a bad man and evil. He never got over Russia losing the cold war. He has been trying to reverse things since. He is not one to deal with. He is not trustworthy. He does not want anything except Russian dominance. Bush looked into his soul and saw a decent man. He was wrong. Obama promised flexibility after the election. He was wrong. Let’s hope Trump is Trump here and doesn’t fall into that trap.

As far as Russian interference in our elections I will repeat a past statement. They,we and others, all interfere. We support the side we think will be better for us and how we see the world. What is new is the social media aspect of the interference. Now why does that surprise anyone? If you pull back wouldn’t you suspect social media activity? In the past it was things like “Tokyo Rose” on the airwaves. This is just the next step in a modern world.
President Obama knew what they were doing. Remember his? “I told him (Putin) to cut it out”. We wrote then that those “words will not scare or deter” Putin. He is an ex KGB agent and dedicated to American decline.

Our thoughts are that as long as Putin is in control no progress is possible. We hope Trump gets tough and treats Putin as he has others that he perceives as taking advantage of America. If we must isolate them, then lead the world to do it. Bush failed, Obama failed, now Trump gets his chance to fix another “problem” they passed on to him.

He (and we) must remember that Russia under Putin is dedicated to creating turmoil in the U.S. and undermining our belief in government. He knows he can’t win militarily so upheaval within is the best means available to him. No one, the President included should be fooled by him.

Schumer Did It Wrong

Here’s a story from the NYT on a topic that we wrote about that the MSM is missing. Chuck Schumer was so wrong to use the filibuster against Neil Gorsuch. He used his single advantage on a losing hand and now is bare.

“Should Democrats Have Saved Their Filibuster for the New Court Fight?”: “In the days leading up to the vote on Judge Neil M. Gorsuch’s confirmation to the Supreme Court in the spring of 2017, Senator Susan Collins approached Senator Michael Bennet on the Senate floor with an urgent plea.

“‘Please, don’t do it this time,” Ms. Collins, the Republican from Maine , said to Mr. Bennet, her Democratic colleague from Colorado. ‘It’ was the Democratic inclination to mount a filibuster against Mr. Gorsuch, potentially forcing a showdown that would end with a move by Republicans to change Senate practices and eliminate supermajority filibusters against Supreme Court nominees. …

Now, as the Senate faces another court vacancy — one that could tilt the court’s ideological balance and cement a conservative majority — the Democrats have few tools to fight the nomination. A different outcome last year could have had a huge effect on the more consequential battle now taking shape.

Had Democrats retained the power to block President Trump’s choice of Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh, he might have been forced to find a more consensus candidate. With the Republicans’ Senate majority smaller than it was in 2017, Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader, might not have found it as easy now to corral the votes to overrule a filibuster. The entire political atmosphere around the nomination would be transformed.

Hillary One More Time

Don’t you wish just once the MSM would call Hillary on what she says? She said Friday: “The nomination of Brett Kavanaugh would turn the clock back to the 1850’s” (yes the 1850’s).
“This nomination holds out the threat of devastating consequences for workers’ rights, civil rights, LGBT rights, women’s rights,” Clinton said.

Imagine if a fair press playing her saying that also played her past quotes:
In 2008 she declined an opportunity to speak in support of same-sex marriage. She didn’t come out in favor of the issue until 2013, after it had become politically safe to do so.

In 1996 her husband signed the Defense of Marriage Act supporting traditional marriage.

He also created  “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” for the military, and the HIV travel ban.

The policy of separation and border activity that she is so against now was in place in her husbands term and the administration she served as Secretary of State.

You get the idea. That wasn’t 1850, it was her time, but the population changed and now she is pontificating as if she was always there.

 

 

 

 

Daily is what used to be ….

Doesn’t it seem in the Trump era, combined with cable news coverage, that what was once a weeks news is now daily? Yesterday was even more than that. Let’s take a view with our observations:

The day began with a 6:00 AM (EST) press conference by the President at the NATO summit.
It was terrific. He said the NATO countries had agreed as he requested to increase funding. He said all was great, the rifts closed and we were going forward as one. He took questions from reporters from around the globe and handled it beautifully.

Then an hour later the NATO leaders began to speak and disputed him. They said “no” there was no committment to add any additional funding. Here’s the report.

Trump at his news conference:
“Everyone’s agreed to substantially up their commitment. They’re going to up it at levels that they’ve never thought of before. The commitment was at 2 percent. Ultimately, that’ll be going up quite a bit higher than that.”

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg backed by others like Macron:
No, Stoltenberg said, the allies recommitted only to the same old goal. “We have agreed that we need to make good on the pledges we have made,” he said. Wait, the President said the opposite. He had just claimed victory.

The only thing close was Stoltenberg made a point of giving Trump credit for a new sense of urgency. “President Trump and his leadership, his strong message, is having a clear impact. Allies are increasing defense spending.”

So it appears they have a new sense of urgency and some are spending more, but the goal of 2% by 2024 remains.

Then came the Strzok hearing.  This was a disaster for all involved.

The Republicans should never have had an open hearing with him after hearing all this in a closed session.
They have a clear example of his personal bias and feeling, but no connection to how he altered investigations. None.
You can ask the same question about a tweet a thousand times and it changes nothing.
Congressman Gohmert embarrassed himself and the party with the question about Strzok’s wife. That question defined the Republican attack.

As for the Democrats they did not do themselves proud either.
They never asked any questions, simply sought to promise more was coming from Mueller.
Their anger and commitment to get Trump is all that came across.
Their offering a “purple heart” to Strzok defined them as Gohmert did the Republicans. Shameful.
They were boisterous, disruptive and loud. Nothing else.

As for Strzok, his pompous attitude and smug looks made him easily unlikeable. His personal hatred and anger at the President made him unsuitable for the role he had at the FBI.
To us he came across as bright, but we saw no other redeeming quality that would make us hire him for any role.

After ten hours of the Strzok hearing you thought the day was over.

But no, Trump had one more up his sleeve. This time he arrived in England and gave The Sun Newspaper an interview. What does he do? He buries Teresa May who was hanging on to her office by a thread. He undercut her incredibly minutes before he met her and her husband for dinner. I can’t recall anything else like it in recent diplomatic history among friends.

That was one day.

Trump, Talks, and Tariffs

Let’s start with Trump

I’ve listened carefully to everything he’s said since preparing to depart and though we don’t always agree with his words and tweets, this time we find ourselves in clear agreement.
Before departing the press asked over and over about immigration and parental separation. Trump said, “you don’t want to be separated don’t come to our country illegally. Apply and come legally and you won’t be separated”.
Enter a country legally. What a novel idea. Seems pretty simple to me.

Then he got to the NATO meeting and again demanded the others pay what they pledged. Why is that so negative to the MSM? It is their defense we are talking about. For years they promised past Presidents they would do 2% of their GDP, and never did. So now he is calling them on it. Isn’t it about time?

Why do we have to pay 4% of our GDP (a much larger sum by the way), while they won’t live up to their 2% commitment?
What about that do the NATO nations, liberals and MSM not understand?

Then he criticized Germany’s deal to pay Russia for an oil pipeline, while we pay to protect them from Russia. Germany pays 1.2% of their GDP to NATO defense. So what is wrong with calling them out? If we were doing what Germany is doing, would the liberals and MSM say we are fine or would they call us out? Darn right they would call us out, but in reverse they still blame us.

Here’s a chart on current outlays. I can tell you from having visited many of these countries they don’t consider themselves (nor should they) inferior. They are proud of their country, it’s heritage and world standing. So how come when it comes to paying their fair share it’s up to the U.S.?

NATO chart spending percentage GDP 032017

To the NATO head who lectured us with “the U.S. doesn’t have that many allies,” here’s a message for you. Lucky for your country we were allied twice in the last century because our soldiers bailed you out both times. We did so at great lose of our young. I am personally named after one of those young men who never got to live his life because he came to bail you out. Bet you thought we were a loyal ally them. How dare you.

Tariffs

The White House said it would slap tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods. This move is a response to China’s retaliation to the initial round of U.S. tariffs applied last week. China has long promised to match Trump’s moves dollar for dollar. This could get ugly, but it’s becoming clear that the President is serious about this and doesn’t intend to back down.

The timing was no accident. Trump did it because he was headed to the NATO meetings and he wants a new deal with each of these countries, too. He wanted to show them he was serious and will take action.

Buckle up on this and watch the market, which reacted negatively today. Something will have to give in the end for everyone to save face.

Brett Kavanaugh

No words of condemnation are needed for the words and actions of those attacking this jurist before they even talk to or hear from him.
I still think those supporting him should simply replay his speech from the W.H. on the night he was announced. He came across as a loving husband, father, son and friend. He came across as a volunteer to feed and help others. There was nothing in what he has done and how he said he lived his life to support the craziness we are hearing in the MSM. Things like “he wants to set back progress 100 years” is embarrassing to those saying it.

Senators Collins, Murkowski and Red State Democrats, you are on the clock.

Here’s a chart that will further point out MSM bias. You hear them over and over in that mocking tone calling Kavanaugh “a conservative” implying all these dire consequences. Did they do the same with liberal nominees?

Lisa Page

So she defies a subpoena and decides not to show for a congressional hearing. Said she needed more time to review documents. Uh uh. Next time take more time before you enter into work affairs and decide to favor candidates so outrightly.

ICE

I can’t believe that Democrats are doubling down on eliminating ICE. This issue is a loser for them and they better come to their senses quickly or it is going to cost them.
Really, eliminate ICE and have open borders you think is a winning message?
Let’s see, add that to impeach Trump, reverse the tax cut, single payer for healthcare, and guaranteed income for all.
Is that what you are running on?

Buckle Up …..

Okay buckle up. The President made his pick for the court and even before they knew the name the left was against it. Over the next 60 days you are going to see a character assassination not seen since Ted Kennedy did it to Robert Bork to start this all. It wasn’t always this way.

When Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal voice on the court, won the senate vote it was 96-3.  Do you think conservatives wanted her on the court? You see the process used to be the President nominated a person. The law groups provided a review based not upon ideology but qualification. Was this person qualified to sit on the court? If they said yes then the process moved forward. That was a civilized nation at work.

Now Ted Kennedy changed things with his attack on “Robert Bork’s America”, where he had people in chains and no rights. Go back and see that. What is funny about that is Ted Kennedy was the moral compass. He got away with that, too. A fair non biased press would never have allowed that.

We got back a little to normalcy as you can see with the Ginsburg nomination by Bill Clinton. He also nominated another liberal, Stephen Breyer, who won 87-9.  The Obama nominations Elena Kagan (63-37) and Sonia Sotomayor 68-31) also won easily. George W. Bush nominated a conservative and it was a 58-42 vote. A little closer and a more contentious hearing.

Then came the Merrick Garland incident and all the gloves were off. Would the vehemence be less if Garland had been voted on? I guess somewhat, but not totally. The anti Trump anger is so deeply rooted that I think we would be here anyway. Just look at the press release by the Women’s Movement. It was pre written long before we knew the nominee, and they left an “XX” in place to out the name. Someone forgot to add the name and seconds after the announcement out it went with the “XX” in place. That is the opposition today.

Now, we think he gets approved. The man who spoke last night of his work and life was impressive. If you play that speech and contrast it with the way Kirsten Gillbrand presented him in a speech at the same time, you will not see the person she said. “If Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed, he would tip the balance of the Supreme Court even more against workers’ rights, civil rights, and women’s rights for decades to come. I do not think he is the right choice for our country, and I am going to vote against him and urge my colleagues to do the same. This new judge could be the deciding vote in whether insurance companies can charge people more, or don’t have to cover them at all anymore, if they have preexisting conditions — and nearly half of all New Yorkers have a preexisting condition. He could be the deciding vote to uphold the disastrous Citizens United decision, which allowed corporations to pour unlimited money into our politics. And he could be the deciding vote in overturning Roe v. Wade, which is what President Trump said he wanted his new Supreme Court Justice to do. “I strongly oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination and I urge all New Yorkers to raise their voices and join me in opposing him. We need a justice who will protect the rights of all people in our state — not just some.”

Pure garbage from a person looking to win the far left vote in the 2020 nomination process. Shameful rhetoric for a leader in the senate.

Finally, our opinion is this. If you are far right you will not be happy with Brett Kavanaugh all the time. We bet that both he and John Roberts become the five vote with the four liberals (who never deviate). He is far from the automatic conservative vote and will be far more moderate than the President and far left think. He clerked for Justice Kennedy and it was the Justice who recommended him to the President. Justice Kennedy was very mindful of his place on the court.  Watch and see.

From a political standpoint, the best scenario for his approval would be if the Republicans stay united and vote yes. That means Collins and Murkowski hold, and John McCain’s vote is not needed. That makes it easy and leaves the pressure on the Red State Democrats to either stick with Schumer and party or vote their state desires. It really puts the pressure on them.
Now if Collins and/or Murkowski bolt and say they are a “no” vote, that changes everything. It would really put the pressure on those red state Dems to make a choice. One would need to vote “yes” to make it 50/50 and allow VP Pence to vote.
On this morning after, we think the Republicans hold and some red state senators vote yes to save themselves. Today we see a 55 vote majority.

 

 

 

A Busy Week ….

A busy week ahead for the President and news. The highlights:

He goes on primetime TV with his Supreme Court pick. Noise to follow.
He heads to a NATO meeting with European leaders. Noise to follow.
He is meeting with Teresa May in London. With Brexit, noise to follow.
He has the private meeting with Putin. Lots of noise to follow.

The Court

Isn’t it funny how the left is yelling so loudly about court ideologues? When was the last time you heard an Obama or Clinton appointee not voting as a left ideologue? How come that is okay? Only a conservative can be unfit because they lean right? And by the way, it is conservative appointees who have voted different, not the liberal ones. Examples:
1. Chief Justice John Roberts, nominated by George W. Bush, let down conservatives when he twice voted with the Supreme Court’s liberal wing to uphold the Affordable Care Act.
2. It was former Justice David Souter, chosen by George H. W. Bush, is probably the best example of a GOP-nominated justice  breaking with the conservative flank, as he would more reliably side with the liberal justices—not just every once in a while.
3. Don’t forget it was Justice Anthony Kennedy, nominated by Ronald Reagan, who disappointed many evangelicals—a key base for Republicans—in siding with the court’s liberal justices in a landmark decision in 2015 that legalized same sex marriage.  He wrote the opinion, in fact.

Again when did any liberal justice appointment by Obama or Clinton do the opposite? How come when they were chosen it was okay to have a check for their stand on liberal causes like Roe vs. Wade, but not now? And by the way, Roe vs. Wade is not being overturned — ever. It may end up with some states having the right to limit actions, but there is no overturn in the future.

Our guess is he chooses Judge Thomas Hardiman. He was second choice to Gorsuch last time.

The people under pressure of those Democratic Senators in red states up for reelection. It’s party loyalty or survival if this plays out in an October vote.

North Korea 

So what is the real story with North Korea? Are they backing off the deal that Trump says he had? Was there really a deal, or did N. Korea fake left, dive right and make believe? Were the administration critics right or was Trump?
Stay tuned.

The Trade War

The trade war is underway. The U.S. and China have imposed $34 billion tariffs on each other. Neither side has blinked yet. Trump promises more to come, the Chinese promise to match dollar for dollar.
So far the market has shrugged it off. It may be expecting this to be a major topic at NATO and a resolution to be found.

The world can ill afford a protracted tariff war. We think there is a solution out there.

Expect to hear a lot about this out of NATO, as well as Trump’s continued push to get them to meet their commitment of 2% GDP defense spending. He is unrelenting (and rightfully so) on this one.

The Unemployment News From Friday

The government reported a 4.0% unemployment rate on Friday. That was up .2 from the previous month, but not because of a bad economy.  The number edged up because people who had quit looking for a job were again entering the work force. A sign of a strong economy.
The numbers showed 601,000 reentering looking for a job. That’s good news all around, and if they find jobs additional people come off government assistance, taxes increase and maybe we can begin discussing the deficit.

One thing the MSM did not report was the Hispanic unemployment information. It was 4.6%, the lowest level it has achieved in the 45 years the bureau has tracked it.

News From The Weekend

Who does Chelsea Handler think she is? Did you see this tweet to the world? “To every country on the Fourth of July. We’re sorry about our president. He doesn’t reflect all of our views — and we hope you know that the majority of us are ashamed. We will rally each other and come back to the world one step at a time”.
Well, Chelsea, you don’t speak for me, so stop. Who elected you to anything?

Did you see the letter a black congresswoman sent to Schumer and Pelosi?
A group of black women sent a letter this week to the two top Democrats in Congress demanding that they apologize for their veiled criticisms of Rep. Maxine Waters and threatening repercussions at the ballot box in November if they do not.
“For Black women, who are the most loyal base of the Democratic Party and the Progressive Movement, Congresswoman Waters is our hero”.

Maxine Waters and hero, words I never thought I would use in the same sentence.

The continued harassment of Trump supporters at stores, restaurants and outlets and the silence of the left on it is a badge of shame for them. For a side that always said free speech was their right, how can they set out to deny others today? This weekend’s harassment of Steve Bannon in a book store and Senator McConnell in a restaurant is going to turn people against the far left. No one likes that.

 

 

 

 

A Short Week ….

A short week with the holiday, but not without significant news.

— To those who support and think that the woman who climbed and forced closure of the Statue of Liberty on Monday is a hero, you should be ashamed. People who planned their day, vacation, and time had to evacuate the statue. Those on line to go in had to leave. Those on boats had to turn around. By what virtue is that right and makes her a hero? She should be locked up, yet she is on the MSM saying how proud she is. I hope we have enough sense of values left to make her pay for the thousands she disrupted.

—  Scott Pruitt resigned. It’s about time. We called for this a month ago. Story after story about him said he was part of the swamp that the President was committed to clean. You may recall some of the stories:
He rented a Washington DC room at favorable rates from a well connected lobbyist.
He installed a $43,000 private phone booth in his office.
He tried to get first a franchise, then a job for his wife.
The government is looking at excessive raises he gave some staff.
They are investigating his traveling costs, at government expense.
They are reviewing his use of staff for personal errands.
And it goes on. The time for him to leave was long up.

—  Did you hear that the son of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed while trying to attack a power station in Syria? It wasn’t big news on the MSM. You remember Baghdadi? He is the leader of the Salafi jihadist militant terrorist organisation known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, which controls territory in several countries. He has a $25 million bounty on his head and has not been heard from since September 2017, when he urged supporters to launch attacks against the West and keep fighting in Syria and Iraq.

— We also used a drone strike to kill a militant commander and his aide in Pakistan near the Afghan border Wednesday, Pakistani intelligence officials reported. The drone targeted the commander, Qari Abdullah Dawar, as he was walking with his associate near their mountain hideout in the Tor Tangai area of North Waziristan. The slain militants were from the Gul Bahadur group, which is Taliban-linked faction. They were targeted for carrying out multiple attacks in Afghanistan.
Good news like this is not MSM worthy. People might think we are making progress and why report that.

— Did you hear that Brian Ross, who was suspended as chief investigative correspondent by ABC for a faulty report on Michael Flynn, is leaving the network? You may recall, he excitingly reported that Flynn testified the President directed him to contact the Russians before the election. It was an exclusive report and set off a frenzy. The market tanked as ABC reported it and talked about it.When it was finally reported that the story was false, it added to other Ross negative reports on the administration and he finally was suspended. When his suspension was lifted he was assigned to an off the air role. Now they have parted company. I don’t see Ross getting a role on a major station. He is too damaged.

— Did you hear that Rachel Dolezal, the white woman who falsely claimed to be black and became an NAACP chapter president, was booked in new charges this week — welfare fraud.
According to authorities, she reported her income as under $500 a month and she received $8,800 of food assistance. However, a subpoena of her bank records showed she made $84,000 over that same time from her auto biography and speaking engagements.
Go figure, the woman lied.

—  Did you hear that the Mexican President -Elect said he is going to invite President Trump to his inauguration (Dec 1)? It’s his latest olive branch to the President after his tough rhetoric in the campaign.“We are neighboring countries, we have economic and trade relationships, ties of friendship. It is very important to us to cooperate on development. We share 3,180 kilometers of border. So President Trump will be invited,” Lopez Obrador told journalists.

—  Here’s another story reporting on the MSM lack of fairness as reported in The Hill.

A Democratic aide is arrested while attempting to flee the country, ultimately pled guilty to felony charges, and an investigation found that he violated numerous standards of conduct imposed on House employees. Sound like a news story?

In the two days since former Democratic House IT aide Imran Awan pleaded guilty to bank fraud, no broadcast news outlet has bothered to report on the story. This lack of coverage reflects the media’s historic disinterest in case.

ABC and NBC have never reported on Awan, making CBS the sole major news network to have acknowledged the story since the federal investigation into his conduct as a House staffer became public in February of 2017. The only attention that CBS paid Awan was on July 26 of 2017, in the form of a 38-second news brief on CBS This Morning. The report mentioned that Awan had been arrested at Dulles Airport while attempting to leave the country.

Cable news has displayed a similar lack of interest. CNN has dedicated four minutes and 47 seconds to Awan across three separate stories, the bulk of which came from a July 27, 2017 segment on The Lead with Jake Tapper. An examination of all MSNBC shows for which there are Nexis transcripts yielded no coverage. That analysis included all shows airing between 5:00 p.m. and midnight.

By comparison, back in 2014, broadcast network news spent more than 14 minutes over the course of two days on mid-level Republican congressional staffer Elizabeth Lauten. The breathless reporting centered around a leaked private Facebook message in which Lauten had criticized the Obama daughters for being “under-dressed” at the annual Thanksgiving turkey-pardoning ceremony.

Based on the current numbers, Lauten, a Republican, received 22 times more network attention for sending a private Facebook message than Awan, a Democrat, has for committing a felony.  

While Awan was found guilty of bank fraud, the investigation into his behavior as a House employee determined that he had also violated “House IT internal controls,” which would have resulted in “administrative action” against him, had he still been employed.

And that’s they is the day after a holiday.

 

 

 

 

The Uncertain Mid Terms …..

Increasingly you are hearing about the importance of the mid terms and its impact on policy going forward. First a little history.

In the last twenty mid terms the party of the sitting President has lost house seats in eighteen of them. That’s right, 18 of 20. The average number of lost seats was 32.
The two exceptions were 2002, just a year after the WTC attacks, and when Democrats reacted to Bill Clinton’s impeachment and gained five seats.

So, you can see the norm is to lose seats. Lots of them. Why? Those opposed to the President and administration policies are more likely to vote. They are the most angry, involved and excited to express themselves.

Now can this year be an exception? There are a lot of factors at play here.

First there is a truly motivated faction of anti Trump citizens ready to vote. You see them everyday on the news. They will show up in November.
The question is how many administration supporters are going to do the same? That is the key, but the other side will vote.

Here’s an example from last week. All the noise of that young (28 year old) socialist defeating Joe Crowley you heard, well it was only 30,000 voters who showed up. (She won by 4,000). Now in 2016 178,000 people voted and 148,000 voted for him.
See, the off years don’t motivate incumbent supporters, and a select number of anti voters who are motivated can change everything.

Thus the Trump supporters must be motivated, and have to get out for him to buck history. Likely? No. That leaves the question of how many seats do they lose? If it’s the average 32 we shared above, then the house switches and Nancy Pelosi is speaker.

A few months ago it was clear to us that the house was switching, but the senate would hold. Then Trump started to make progress with voters who began to realize the progress we were making. His popularity rose and he approached the magic 50% number. A place he has never been in any poll.
Then the family separation policy hit and his numbers took a hit. He began dropping back into the 40’s. Yesterday Gallup had him at 42% approval and 53% disapproval. The Rasmussen Daily Poll had him at 48/51 on approval and disapproval.

The issues appear on his side. The economy is humming, the tax cuts welcomed, unemployment at historic lows. The American people support ICE and a tougher border control. North Korea may be disarming, and he has a summit with Putin. If these break right and he introduces (as indicated) another tax reduction in October, as well as a Neil Gorsuch candidate for the court, he can be competitive.

The negatives are two (as of today). If the tariff war heats up and other leaders don’t cave as he expects them too. It could drive prices up and impact jobs and the economy.
The other is a negative report or actual indictments from Mueller. If in September or October something comes out, that would impact everything. Between Mueller and the New York case there could well be something. There is a reason they have continually delayed Mike Flynn’s sentencing, locked up Manafort and raided Michael Cohen’s office. They do that when they want a bigger fish. We’re confident its not collusion, but we do think there is something else.

You’ve heard of the “October Surprise”. Trump’s surprise is another tax cut and progress on peace. Indictments may be the other side’s ace in the hole.

That’s what we need to watch. In either case we see Democrat House pick ups. The question in how many depends on which October surprise we see.

Some Quick News Hits

One of the goals of controlled and limited immigration is to drive up salaries and wages for workers. Here’s a report you didn’t hear, where this is actually occurring.
The Washington Post has a story about how, “as the nation faces a historically low level of unemployment, trucking companies are doing what economists have said firms need to do to attract and retain workers: They’re hiking pay significantly, offering bonuses and even recruiting people they previously wouldn’t have considered.
The industry reports a growing labor shortage — 63,000 open positions this year, a number expected to more than double in coming years — that could have wide-ranging impacts on the American economy.”

Did you hear on the MSM that a reporter for a Massachusetts newspaper (The Republican) had to resign after falsely claiming on Twitter that the accused gunman at the Maryland newspaper was wearing a Make America Great Hat? (Of course he wasn’t).

Did you know that on July 2, 1964 Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Bill into law? Did you know the vote to pass it was 289-126? Did you know of the 126 voting “no” were 35 Republicans and 91 Democrats? Bet you can make money asking people that question.

Did you follow the Mexican Presidential election?
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador won in a landslide, setting the stage for the most left-wing government in the country’s democratic history at a time of tense relations with the Trump administration. The 64 year-old former Mexico City mayor won with the widest margin in a presidential election since the 1980s, according to an official quick count that showed him taking more than half the vote — some 30 points ahead of his nearest rival.

Now he said he has no intention of stopping immigration through his country. In fact, he said people have a right to immigrate to America.
Maybe he thinks he won our Presidency? What gives him the right to set our policy? Not a good start as we see it.