The November Surprise …..

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So the November surprise was not from the Clinton or Trump camps or even Wiki Leakes. It came from Comey and the FBI. It is really hard to believe how the FBI became the issue of the campaign. Of course it is all related to Hillary lying and setting up an unprecedented server but the FBI is the issue. Think of this. Both sides started out praising Comey for his professionalism, non partisan approach and fairness. The FBI was one of the most respected organizations in government. It ends with them and him tainted, his career likely derailed and reputations of both gone. Hillary who started it all becomes President. Just more bodies in the wake of the Clintons path.

If I were advising Trump my counsel would have been to express this sentiment from the moment Comey’s letter went our yesterday:
The FBI today reiterated that after examining one more breach of Hillary’s emails, this time as part of a sexual predator investigation, that they stand by their July findings. As a reminder, in July they found Hillary Clinton lied and mislead the American people. She lied publicly about why she had the server. She lied about what was on it. She lied about receiving or forwarding classified documents, she lied about how many devices she had and she lied about what was bleached off it. We found out she had 13 devices, hammered some obsolete and bleach bit the server. Think about that. He said we stand by July. The Clintons call this exoneration. Let the American people decide.

Speaking of which, with one day to go the polls say:
ABC has Clinton by 4
CBS has Clinton by 4
Bloomberg has Clinton by 3
Rasmussen has Clinton by 2
IBD has Trump by 2
LATimes has Trump by 5
Pretty clear that Hillary enters the day with about a 3 point lead. Obama beat Romney by 4.
By the way with the exception of the LATimes, in no poll is Trump at or above 45%.

Trump needs that inside straight of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada combined with the Romney states to get a 269 tie.
Florida looks very shaky and North Carolina is a toss up. Early voting in Florida and Nevada show Hispanics turning out in overwhelming numbers.That is very negative for him. The road is uphill for sure. His chances are not very promising.
Did he lose the election going down that escalator to announce as we wondered back then? It’s starting to look that way.

What happens if he runs the table and gets that 269 tie?
– First they look to Nebraska and Maine that allocate one electoral vote by congressional district. Nebraska is all Trump. The second district in Maine is a toss up. If they vote Trump he would win by 270 -268.
– Assuming a tie and Maine holds for Clinton it goes to the House.
– In the house each state delegation gets one vote each.
– So the states meet and decide their vote. 33 States are Republican dominant  so Trump would win.
– Then the Senate votes on a VP. Yes, separate from the House.
– The Senate, having today a Republican edge, would vote Pence.
So in a tie Trump wins. Hillary has no path there!

Thus, watch those six tomorrow and see if Trump pulls an inside straight.

 

 

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