So if I told you …

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So if I told you this a few months ago what would you have said?

That Donald Trump would win the presidency with over 300 electoral votes.

That it would be Hillary Clinton who would be challenging the votes in some states.

That Republicans would not only hold the house but the senate too.

That Republicans would dominate governor races and increase control of state houses.

That Trump would be filling his cabinet and not in it would be
Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich or Rudy Guilani.

That the stock market would react so positive and reach record highs.

That Ford and Carrier Air Conditioning would cancel plans to relocate plants to Mexico.

That Obamacare was really going to be replaced.

That Obama would withdraw his supreme court nominee and the Republicans would truly fill the slot.

That Fidel Castro would pass away and after initial praise Obama and team would back down and send a minor delegation to the funeral.

Which of those would you have believed?

Yet, they are all real.

If I told you Nancy Pelosi would be reelected by the Democrats as their leader in the house would you believe that?

She was today.

We are living in interesting times.

 

 

 

Filling The Cabinet

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As controversy continues to swirl about the recount and Trump fuels it with his voter fraud tweets, filling the cabinet continues.  On the former we still don’t understand why he is doing it. Yes, the rolls have deceased and relocated voters on them. It doesn’t mean they voted. The states’ systems of maintaining precise rolls is not good. It does open itself to fraud, but to claim it is happening at the numbers Trump mentions is far fetched. Why he doesn’t let the Steins and Clintons stew in the mess they created is beyond us.

Speaking of which, have you heard one theory as to why the recount is being done now? It’s this. The count will be slow and painstaking. It will take time and the electoral college electors have to cast their ballots in three weeks. If the recount is not finished because of challenges and questions then those states cannot cast their votes. So no one gets 270 and it goes to the house. Trump wins again, of course, but it raises more questions about his credibility on top of the popular vote. Crazy? Maybe, but this has been a crazy year.

Now if you think Trump wasn’t serious about Obamacare repeal and replace, just look at who he picked to be secretary of the Health and Human Services Department. Congressman Tom Price is a former orthopedic surgeon, and one of several GOP physicians determined to change the ACA. He did not take this role to make minor changes.
In congress he has championed his own legislation, called the Empowering Patients First Act. His positions on hot-button issues have the full support of conservative health policy thinkers. In its latest iteration, the proposal includes refundable, age-adjusted tax credits for people to buy insurance if they don’t have access to coverage through an employer or government program. People in a government program, such as Medicare, Medicaid or Tricare, would also be allowed to opt out of it and get tax credits toward the cost of private coverage instead.
So expect to see across state plans and more options from private insurers moving away from a government run system. Hillary would have moved toward a single payer system, so this is one opposite position and a true election result.

He also appointed another woman, former Labor Secretary Elaine Chao who served as Labor Secretary under George W. Bush as transportation secretary. She is the third high profile woman appointed and first Asian American. Nikki Haley is Indian-Amercian. Chao keeps earning appointments and for your information is married to Mitch McConnell the head of the senate.

As noted yesterday it was interesting to watch the different leadership reactions to Fidel Castro’s death. Early on the administration and press were so complimentary of the Marxist leader. Then Cuban Americans and their conservative supporters started reacting. I think Obama felt the heat and announced that neither he, Biden nor Kerry would attend the funeral.(Though he is sending a delegation). Even Trudeau the Canadian leader backed down and now will not attend. For his part Trump kept up his hardline stance. He threatened to roll back recently restored relations with Cuba. He issued a tweet with this ultimatum. If Havana isn’t willing to make a “better deal” for Cubans and Americans he’ll “terminate the deal”.
Another implication of this election.

And the vote count edges up still, “Election officials are still certifying and counting ballots in several large Democratic states”.  The numbers now Clinton 64.6 million votes,  Trump’s 62.4 million. Incredible. Of course she won California by 2.4 million.

As Republicans celebrate they need to remember these numbers. They have to do an outreach with this administration to minority groups. They cannot build a party for the future without it. Do you realize that Republicans have lost the popular vote in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections? Amazingly they won the presidency three times. That is not sustainable no matter how elated they are. They need to plan now to change voting patterns.

That does not mean giving up your values, but delivering on promises to make life better in urban areas. Bring jobs back. Create enterprise free zones in inner cities to build factories and drive employment. School choice so kids and families have a better chance.

Let’s see what the next 24 hours brings. A great time for us news junkies for sure.

And on it goes

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With Hillary taking all the heat for the recount and her words coming back to haunt her like: “Anybody not willing to accept the results of an election is a threat to democracy” why would Trump say what he did? In knocking her recount and stating correctly that “nothing will change” he had to add this tweet: “In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally”. Why would you lend any credence to any vote being wrong? His opponents are challenging states like Pennsylvania which he won by an unchallengeable 68,000 votes. Even the liberal media agree with that. Thus, why say there were “millions” of illegal votes? Just doesn’t make sense. Let them embarrass themselves and show their true colors. Just crazy.

Speaking of the election they are still counting votes. Can you believe the popular vote now has Hillary up to 64.1 Million? She is edging close to the Obama total of 2012. Her lead is now close to two million votes. Where are these counts coming from?

The differences in world view between Obama and the liberal elite and Trump and conservatives is so clear in Castro’s death. Trump today said again the opening Obama created via executive order with Cuba was a bad one. We got nothing from it and unless they agree to change it he is going to cancel it. This is all on the front burner with the differences in reaction to Fidel’s passing. We are all watching to see if Obama, Biden or a senior rep go to Cuba for the funeral. You know they want too. On the other side Marco Rubio said this: “If you send a representative of the Obama Administration and the U.S. government to that funeral you are sending someone to the funeral of a man who ordered the execution of Americans.”. The great divide.

All this happens as JetBlue flies it’s first commercial flight out of JFK to Havana today. Life is ironic sometimes. It may end up being a short route and window for people to visit.

One thing clear to me is that Trump is going to continue tweeting into his presidency. He sees twitter as a means to get his message across to his almost 30 million followers and a way for the media to pick up his thoughts direct. He is not a fan of the MSM and twitter provides a way around them. He will continue to do short videos and bypass them at every possible stage. They will hate this, but welcome to the new age of communication.

His cabinet choices continue and the controversy with Secretary of State continues. Mitt Romney will not get the job. There is too much opposition to him based upon his election vehemence against Trump. He was the most vocal of all the “nevertrump” crowd. It will bite him now. I hear too that Rudy said secretary of state or no job. A tough spot to put Trump in because he owes Rudy, but maybe not the right role. My gut is Trump is tough enough to say no to Rudy and fill the spot with someone else. Stay tuned to that one.

Interesting times.

 

It’s over, but let’s recount ….

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The secretary of state of Michigan has certified Trump won the state by 10,704 votes. Trump has 306 electoral votes, it’s all over. No, no says Jill Stein and then Hillary’s team joins her. What?

Stein raises seven million dollars to pay for recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Why? Was it because there was talk of fraud? No. Was it because of broken machines? No. Was it because more people voted than were registered? No. Why then? Because Trump won and how can that be?

Let’a see, he won Pennsylvania by 1.2%  or 68,000 votes. (Stein got 0.8 or 48,000 in the state). He won Wisconsin by  27,000 votes and as noted Michigan by almost 11,000.

Thus the candidate (Hillary) who criticized Trump for not agreeing to say he would not challenge the results if he saw discrepencies, now decides to challenge with no reason, other than because she lost. Her mockery of his stance in the last debate and on the trail is now another embarrassment for her.  The words “no American presidential candidate ever challenged our system” rings in my ear. At least he said “for cause”.  Her cause is she lost and it can’t be.

Mrs. Clinton aren’t you ashamed? You realize even if the Trump people were to say you can have Wisconsin and Michigan you would still lose? You are going to challenge 68,000 votes in Pennsylvania, too? Really? You think in three reliably Democratic states there are 116,000 plus votes you were cheated on? What a joke and just more liberal hysteria. The people who pride themselves on being tolerant, understanding and open are proving to be none of the above. It’s just like the social experimental  ideas they have for your neighborhood, but not theirs; or the increased taxes that you should pay while they find loopholes.

As for the Trump appointments here’s another observation. Get ready for a far more active military. The appointment of past military hawks like Flynn and McFarland make it clear that ISIS will know quickly there is a new administration in Washington.

Finally if you want to know the difference between the current and future administrations just see and read the reaction to the death of Fidel Castro. One implies he was a hero, the other clearly calls him a killer. The liberal media first was all about the hero part until they saw the pushback. On ABC one of their colleagues broke down about his family and what they experienced trying to escape. Suddenly the tone began to change. They are in utter confusion again as their supreme leader Obama decides if he or Biden, or neither should go the funeral.

Election this and that …..

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Here we are on the eve of Thanksgiving and they haven’t called Michigan yet. Can you believe that? Just remember it’s Trump 290 electoral votes and Hillary 232. Florida’s 29 goes the other way and what a mess it is (261 each).

Michigan has 96% counted and it’s Trump 47.6 and Hillary 47.3. A difference today of 11,000 votes.

Speaking of vote count, where are all these late counted votes coming from? The latest numbers in the popular vote are Hillary 63,515 million to Trump’s 61,917. That’s over six million votes counted since election day, and they are still going. Hillary has 47.9% of the vote count and Trump 46.7%. Her margin keeps widening so it can’t be military votes since they supported Trump really big.

Did you know that six electoral vote individuals have stated publicly they do not intend to cast their vote for Trump?  Here’s a link to a story about this.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/members-vow-cast-electoral-college-votes-trump-article-1.2883695?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%202016-11-23&utm_term=DailyNewsletter

Interesting to watch the liberal media report on “Trump position reversals”. They love it, as he seems to be backing off prosecuting Clinton, water boarding and even climate control. They don’t  want to praise him, but the smugness of their reporting seems to be something like, “we told you so”. Almost a “we were right from the beginning”. He has them off stride a little. They attack his appointments, love his backing off some positions and they are still recovering from his winning. It is all leading up to the secretary of state announcement and then the big one, his supreme court nominee. Lots of fun ahead.

Did you see the cable news ratings last week? Fox dominated. In almost every time slot they beat CNN and MSNBC combined! Interestingly MSNBC has just about caught CNN which is close to falling to third place. In fact Fox Business Network has been gaining and is now the number 4 primetime cable news network passing CNN Headline news and CNBC.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

 

Catching Up ……

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After a week hiatus we return. We hope you missed us.

So the MSM writes after the election that they missed the pulse of America and they will be more conscious going forward. Then they proceed in exactly the same manner. They can’t change as long as they surround themselves with a singular view of the world. They don’t know how out of touch they are. Why is this? Here’s a link to our blog of August 18th where we explained the reasons. Nothing has changed.
http://issuediscussions.com/2016/08/18/the-media/

Yet every time Trump makes an appointment, do you see how the media reverts to how the person is far right, an ideologue to the extreme and a racist. Why? Because he is choosing someone on the right, which is alien to their thought process. Yet when Obama chose people on the far left, think Eric Holder, they thought it was wonderful. Trump is not picking criminals he is simply choosing people with a thought process closer to his. To the liberal media they are outside their ideologue thought therefore they are extreme.

They jumped on Trump for a broken transition process beginning day two.  Yet it wasn’t broken and in fact he appointed people weeks ahead of what Obama and Bush did in the two most recent transitions.  Why? They were still seething at his win and trying to prove what a disaster America had created for itself.

The media jumps on Trump every time a former rival or person who backed someone else visits to talk a possible role. Why? Did they expect him not to broaden his reach; or did they just think he was incapable of it?

The anchors, talk hosts and Hollywood stars have been disgraceful. The disrespect shown by the model Gigi Hadid in her voice mocking of Melania Trump is inexcusable. She cannot apologize enough for that. Imagine a Republican mocking Michelle or any latino in such a manner. That was as poor a taste maneuver as I have witnessed. The cast of Hamilton stepping out like they did to chastise VP Pence is another example. The VP has so much class and he has made them look petty and little.  The disrespect goes on daily on the networks and CNN.

The end result is this. Donald Trump’s favorability with the public has gone up 9 points since the election. He has handled himself for the most part with dignity and class. Respect for the media has continued to decline. They have not done the same. Yet because of the isolated bubble they live in they fail to see it.

Veterans and election day ….

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We begin as we did yesterday with Florida and Michigan. As of this morning if Florida had gone Clinton we would still not have a winner. Michigan remains uncalled with 4% still to be counted and a 12,000 vote difference. Chaos avoided by a 1.3% difference in Florida. Just imagine.

Speaking of counting, the numbers continue to be adjusted as absentee ballots are opened and arrive. Clinton is now up to 60.467 million and Trump is at 60.071. So they are nearing the Romney total in 2012 of 60.589. Obama received 65.545. Interesting how long this takes isn’t it? It will also be interesting to see the final turnout numbers.

The protesters were out again yesterday but less so in most cities with Portland being a real exception. What exactly are they protesting? A free and fair election? And, wasn’t it Trump who was supposed to be the problem because he might not accept the results?

These protests are social media organized convincing people they are going to lose their rights. Colleges holding counseling sessions, cancelling tests, and pampering students. On this Veterans Day think of this.
Our parents and grandparents were eighteen once, too. They stormed the beaches of D-Day, fought in the cold snow at the Battle of The Bulge and died on the ground in the Pacific. They gave their all, and some paid with their all, so we could grow up free in this country. They were 18 and 19 too.
Some call it progress that their grandchildren can’t go to class because their candidate lost. Not to me. Sorry.

God bless our veterans and all they did and continue doing. It is you we owe a debt of gratitude, resources and support.

 

So What Happened?

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Let’s start with this. Do you realize if Florida, which was so close for so long had gone for Clinton this election would be undecided as of this AM? You didn’t know that did you? Here’s the numbers as of 8:00 this morning.
Trump 290 Electoral Votes. Clinton has 232. Now take Florida’s 29 and reverse the state. You have Trump with 261 and Clinton with 261.
Undecided yet is Michigan.
So we would all still be awaiting Michigan’s final count.
As of this moment 96% of Michigan is counted. With close to 5 million votes in, Trump is ahead by only 12,000.
So imagine what could have been if Florida had gone the other way, and remember how uncertain it was for hours.
That’s how close this was.

What are the numbers showing us?
Clinton won the popular vote by 250,000. This was driven by states where no one campaigned, like California where she won by 2.5 million and New York by 1.5 million.

Despite what you heard about massive and record turnout, vote count was down versus 2012. It appears (pending final numbers) to be down around seven million votes.
In fact, as of this writing, Romney’s losing vote total was greater than either Trump or Clinton’s.

Why Trump Won According To The Numbers

Of that seven million less votes Hillary lost six million from the Obama total.
Trump lost one million from the Romney total.

So it was a turnout election and the Obama voters did not turn out for her.
White voters were down from 71% of the electorate in 2012 to 70% this time. They did vote for Trump in a greater number but because they backed off Hillary after voting Obama they are racist now?
So if you hear it was a white racist turn out don’t listen to them.
This appears to be an “I am not excited about Hillary vote”.
Cokie Roberts, who made the outrageous charge that people came out to vote against Hillary because she was a woman, should apologize.
Cokie, Democrats and liberals did not come out to vote for Hillary.

Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will all be decided by about 1 point.
Hillary never visited Wisconsin in the campaign. She took it for granted. Trump equaled Romney’s vote in the state. Hillary lost about a quarter million Obama votes.
In Penn. the African-American vote went from 13% of the total in 2012 to 10% this year.

So in a short analysis this AM let’s be clear. This was not a mass movement that resulted in a record vote. It was more about who did not turn out than who did. The Obama coalition did not back Hillary as they did him.

One last thought. You saw the demonstrations and in some cases riots last night protesting a free and open election. Ask yourself this. If Hillary had won would the Trump people be out there doing that? I think not. First of all they had to go to work. (Which is why the exit polls which closed at 3:00 had Hillary as elected). Secondly, to the far left open and understanding applies only to you understanding them. It doesn’t work in reverse.

“Am I seeing what I am seeing”?

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Well if you are coming here this AM for post analysis you are a day late. I was the wise blogger who provided the analysis for free a day earlier!
You can laugh but it was free.

I awoke this AM after two hours sleep and immediately reached for my phone. After a glance I turned to my wife and said “he still won”. It was real! Then I got dressed and looked out to see my neighbor’s light on. I wanted to get out there, because as a strong Hillary supporter maybe she was leaving for Canada and I wanted to say good bye.

So what happened and what did we say?
We said this would not be too close.
– Well it really wasn’t. Trump may end up with 300 electoral votes.
We said the senate would go with the new President.
– Well it did, didn’t it?
We said Trump needed an inside straight to win didn’t we?
– Well he got an inside and outside one didn’t he?
We worked in research and numbers for a career as you know.
– Well we told you to never trust the numbers didn’t we?
– And if you use numbers a census is always better than a pollster sample.
Pennsylvania put him over the top. We told you it was “fools gold” didn’t we?
– Well if you would kindly forget we said “fool” we were right on.
What surprised us the most?
– Everything that happened from 8:30 PM until 3:30 AM this morning.

Some other thoughts to ponder this AM.
What will the Presidential picture look like in the oval office next January?
– This was the first time all living ex Presidents from both parties were against one candidate.
– Carter, Bush Sr., Clinton, Bush Jr. and Obama will gather with Trump.
– Who smiles besides Trump?
Speaking of the oval office wouldn’t it be a good idea to give VP Pence an office inside it?
Where does Trump build his Presidential library?
– One of my kids suggested on our side of the Mexican wall.
What is Bill Clinton’s reaction this AM as he awakens to the knowledge that Hillary will be home with him everyday now?
That neighbor of Bill, the one they call the “Energizer Bunny”, is she the second biggest loser of the night?
Will there be an increase in the plumbing profession now that we are Draining Swamps?
If you know anyone leaving for Canada tell they should arrange a car pool to save the environment and expenses. Show them you care.
Van Jones the CNN commentator asked this AM, “How do I explain this to my kids.”
– Just tell them Americans voted they’ll understand that.
As for the media as a whole. Ha ha ha ha ha ha. Nice job.

So much to consider and think about now.

 

The Final Analysis ….

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Now the people speak. Who speaks makes the difference.
The final polls are out:
ABC says it’s still Clinton by 4
IBD says it’s Trump by 2
LATimes says it’s Trump by 3
Monmouth says Clinton by 6
Fox says Clinton by 4

What say us? We say it’s Clinton by 3 in the popular vote.
Tomorrow all the experts will tell you why things happened. It’s easy then. Here’s ours now:
Trump can’t get outside that 43-45 range.
Hillary recovered enough to go to 45-48.
He lost the election with his stand on Hispanics.
We think the post analysis will say he drove that vote up and against him and that made the difference.
The Democratic party rallied to her after the Sanders fight.
The Republicans like Bush, Kasich, Ryan and McConnell and others never rallied to him.
That simple.

Can he win tonight despite the popular vote? Outside chance here’s how:
He holds the Romney base less NC which would be 191 votes
He will win Ohio (18) and Iowa (6), so add 24. Total 215
Now comes the Keys. Florida (29) and NC (15). Here (and Nevada) is where the Hispanic vote makes the difference.
I don’t think he wins Florida which will make for an early night.
If he does win both Florida and NC then add 44 votes. TTL 259
Brew the coffee and get the popcorn done, it’s a long night.
That would be 10 short since he wins with a tie.
Where does the other ten come from? No where he is favored.
NH (4), Pa(20), MI (16), CO (9), WI (10)
Best shots would be Michigan and Colorado and New Hampshire.

New Hampshire alone can’t do it being only four votes.
Michigan in our opinion is a better shot than Pennsylvania.
Michigan (16) by the way, can offset a NC (15)  loss.
Nothing can offset Florida.
Now here’s a scenario that you haven’t heard that could rock everything. He gets to 259 with Florida and NC. Then pulls the upset in Colorado for it’s 9 votes. 268 total. One short.
Then Maine’s second congressional district votes Trump and he gets that one more. Total 269.
Not impossible.
Could you imagine that? Hillary would be calling the FBI!

Exit polls show up in the hands of the networks around 5:00. They won’t share them, but you will be able to tell by their demeanor if this is close or not. Giddiness on CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC, CBS and CNBC will tell you.

With the senate we started out in the beginning with a 50/50 spilt as the real possibility. Then the VP would cast the deciding vote.
We are sticking with the 50/50 end game.
We see Democratic gains in Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Missouri
We don’t see any Republican pick ups.
But they hold, New Hampshire, Florida, Indiana, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana.

The MSM played out the Clinton bias to the end. Today’s NYTimes headline is:
“Optimism From Hillary Clinton and Darkness From Donald Trump at Campaign’s End.”
Did you notice that?

Finally yesterday we mentioned the lost reputation of Jim Comey and the FBI in this campaign as the Clinton’s soar to the White House. Well add these bodies they left by the wayside too.
Donna Brazile, Wolf Blitzer and the entire CNN news team, CNBC and John Harwood, The Bush family, Lester Holt, Martha Raddatz. The list goes on. All of them tainted but the Clintons rise.
All Trump did was ruin his own reputation.
Isn’t it just amazing?

The November Surprise …..

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So the November surprise was not from the Clinton or Trump camps or even Wiki Leakes. It came from Comey and the FBI. It is really hard to believe how the FBI became the issue of the campaign. Of course it is all related to Hillary lying and setting up an unprecedented server but the FBI is the issue. Think of this. Both sides started out praising Comey for his professionalism, non partisan approach and fairness. The FBI was one of the most respected organizations in government. It ends with them and him tainted, his career likely derailed and reputations of both gone. Hillary who started it all becomes President. Just more bodies in the wake of the Clintons path.

If I were advising Trump my counsel would have been to express this sentiment from the moment Comey’s letter went our yesterday:
The FBI today reiterated that after examining one more breach of Hillary’s emails, this time as part of a sexual predator investigation, that they stand by their July findings. As a reminder, in July they found Hillary Clinton lied and mislead the American people. She lied publicly about why she had the server. She lied about what was on it. She lied about receiving or forwarding classified documents, she lied about how many devices she had and she lied about what was bleached off it. We found out she had 13 devices, hammered some obsolete and bleach bit the server. Think about that. He said we stand by July. The Clintons call this exoneration. Let the American people decide.

Speaking of which, with one day to go the polls say:
ABC has Clinton by 4
CBS has Clinton by 4
Bloomberg has Clinton by 3
Rasmussen has Clinton by 2
IBD has Trump by 2
LATimes has Trump by 5
Pretty clear that Hillary enters the day with about a 3 point lead. Obama beat Romney by 4.
By the way with the exception of the LATimes, in no poll is Trump at or above 45%.

Trump needs that inside straight of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada combined with the Romney states to get a 269 tie.
Florida looks very shaky and North Carolina is a toss up. Early voting in Florida and Nevada show Hispanics turning out in overwhelming numbers.That is very negative for him. The road is uphill for sure. His chances are not very promising.
Did he lose the election going down that escalator to announce as we wondered back then? It’s starting to look that way.

What happens if he runs the table and gets that 269 tie?
– First they look to Nebraska and Maine that allocate one electoral vote by congressional district. Nebraska is all Trump. The second district in Maine is a toss up. If they vote Trump he would win by 270 -268.
– Assuming a tie and Maine holds for Clinton it goes to the House.
– In the house each state delegation gets one vote each.
– So the states meet and decide their vote. 33 States are Republican dominant  so Trump would win.
– Then the Senate votes on a VP. Yes, separate from the House.
– The Senate, having today a Republican edge, would vote Pence.
So in a tie Trump wins. Hillary has no path there!

Thus, watch those six tomorrow and see if Trump pulls an inside straight.

 

 

48 Hours, Sunday AM

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Here come the Sunday polls:
The ever fair and balanced ABC has Hillary up again. She is plus 5 now.
IBD has gone the other way. They have Trump up 1.
NBC/WSJ has Clinton up 4.
The LATimes held steady with Trump up 5.
Real Clear Politics has Hillary up 2 points.

Yesterday we gave Trump a 25% chance to win. It is no better today, maybe worse. Florida and Nevada are looking very questionable from that list we identified he needed to run the table on.

The news this AM is that these two states are truly an issue based upon early voting.  He appears to be ahead in the latest polls in Nevada, but early voting prior to the Comey announcement was so heavy that it may be impossible to overcome.

So where is he trying to find a path? Consider this. He is going all out in Pa. Did you know that in the last six presidential elections they voted Democratic?
He is going to Minnesota and you when the last time they voted for a Republican was? 1972. Yes 1972. They were the lone state to vote Mondale over Reagan!

Not very promising is it?
Lightening can strike and he could make that run we talked about yesterday. It is also possible if he does that she wins the popular vote.

We still wonder what she stands for. When running well ahead she said she would go high while he went low. She has gone pretty low the last few weeks. Her speeches are not about what she will do but how bad Trump is.
She beat him about not saying he would accept the outcome, yet while the electoral college narrowed she hired lawyers ready to challenge.
She defended Obamacare and the increases saying most people wouldn’t pay them, they are being “subsidized”. Oh really? Who is paying the subsidy? You the taxpayer. They talk about “subsidized” as if it’s free money. it’s free alright, right from your paycheck.

It just doesn’t seem to matter to the voters.

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Which brings to an issue that will arise post the election. That is, can a Republican ever win again? I have my doubts. We’ll cover it more in depth later but consider this.
Florida with 29 electoral votes has gone Democratic the last two elections and appears to be leaning that way this time. The influx of immigrants and older loyal Democratic voters has tilted the state.
Now consider California (55), NY (29), IL (20) are not even competitive if you add Florida the Democrat starts out with four states and 133 electoral votes locked in.

Add states that in a generation have voted only Democratic like: MA (11), MN. (10), MD (10), and the NE corridor of RI, VT, ME, CT, DE and DC you can add 24 more. Three western states are not competitive. WA (12), OR (7), and NM (5).
That’s 212 electoral votes that are locked.

Then add states that in the last three have gone Democratic and are doing so again this time. NJ (14), WI (10), VA (13), MI (16), PA (20) and you are at 285 electoral votes.

Think about that which of the states seems out of place? We haven’t even talked about “competitive states” like Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa and Nevada. That’s 67 additional votes. Even with a flawed candidate like Hillary Clinton, in a year of change, each of these is a toss up this year.

The Republican party is in trouble. They needed to broaden their appeal to minorities and they have failed in the African-American, Hispanic and Asia-American communities. When you add white liberals to the list it makes the Republican party the new minority in politics.

With two+ days to go …

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Saturday Night Update

With two plus days to go we see Trump’s chances to win as 25%. A chance, but it all has to break his way now. Here’s our reasoning.

Trump gained the past two weeks, but Hillary has steadied the ship and the race has settled in at a 2-3 point Hillary advantage.
Throughout the campaign she has held a consistent lead of 2-7 points.
He has never lead outside the LATimes poll.
The past two weeks he regained his base and gained in the polls, but as we’ve noted never gets above 45%.
For him to win now would mean he would he will lead only in the last poll. Not likely.
She has the built in Democratic advantage of voters and a significant electoral vote.
To close the electoral gap and have a chance to get to 270 Trump must win every toss up state and then one more.
That means the close states like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada must break his way.
If that happens it’s a tie at 269.
Each of those states is a toss up. Can we really expect him to win all 6?
It’s possible but the odds are long.

We think his biggest issues will be Florida and Nevada. Why?
There may be a larger than anticipated Hispanic vote.
If there is do you think they are coming out for Trump?
Something we wrote months ago and repeated since was this:
Trump may have lost this race when he came down that escalator and called Hispanics murderers and rapists.

So we’ll see. On Tuesday watch Florida. Without their 29 electoral votes Trump would need to win both “fools gold” states Michigan and Penn.
Early on watch New Hampshire. Only four electoral votes but vital for Trump. We think Ohio has trended his way and NC seems to be creeping that way. But he needs to run the table and Florida and Nevada are the problems I see.
Now if Florida breaks with Ohio, NH and Iowa you will be up late waiting for Nevada.
If one small state goes bad like NH, Iowa or Nevada and the others break Trumps way, you can stay up and watch Colorado.
After that I don’t see any other path.

With the senate the races are intriguing. We’ve been predicting a 50/50 spilt while most expert sites say it is going Democrat. Remember there are 24 Republican seats up and only ten Democratic.
As stated from the outset, Illinois and Wisconsin go Democrat.
Indiana has seen a switch. The Republican has caught up and this may be a hold. The Dem, a popular former governor, imploded.
In NH and NC the Republican candidates have advanced as Trump gained.
Pennsylvania still looks dire for the incumbent Republican.
Missouri remains a question. As does one Democratic seat in Nevada.
There’s usually a surprise or two so watch closely.

With four lengths to go ….

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With three lengths to go if any bombshells are yet to explode they better hurry up.

The polls have stabilized and if anything taken a tweak to Hillary.
ABC has her up another point to a plus 3 now.
IBD says it’s still a tie.
LATimes still has Trump up 4. (Down 2 from yesterday)
Rasmussen says it’s tied at 44% each (Trump down 3 from yesterday)
Real Clear Politics has Hillary up 2.1.

The state polls are interesting and where it will all be decided.
Take Arizona, Missouri, Utah and Georgia off the board. They are Trump.
The states you need to watch Tuesday night that decide this are:
FL. (H +1), NC (T +1), Ohio (T +3), Iowa (T +1), NV (T +2), NH (T +2)
Trump carries all those and he has 267. He would be 3 short.
So then you need to watch these states that can turn the election:
CO (H+3) ME (H +7) MI (H +6), MN (H +6), Pa (H+3), VA (H+5) WI (H+5)

So Trump needs to run the table on the opportunities and find another state. Now if he won Pa (20 votes) he could lose NC (15) and still get 270.

Expert electoral estimates this AM look like this:
Real Clear Politics.                           Hillary 298   Trump  240
538 Nate Silver:                               Hillary 294    Trump 244
Sabato Center for Politics:              Hillary 294    Trump 244
Pretty consistent aren’t they?
We were there last week. We project as of this AM: (Pending weekend bombs)  Hillary  273  Trump 265

It’s all about turnout and voter pull by teams. Hillary’s upside is greater. She can win Florida and NC and end up with 320 plus.

Now the Senate. There are too many close races in Republican held seats for them to hold. As we have forecast from the outside the best we think Republicans can do is hold this to a four seat loss making it a 50/50 senate. A five seat loss though looks more probable today. Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana and Pennsylvania are the most likely to be lost. Missouri could be a surprise loss. North Carolina and New Hampshire are true toss ups. Republicans have one opportunity, Nevada.

Okay, on to Friday’s activity. Once again the Democrats have a big edge. President Barack Obama delivers remarks at a campaign event for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton at 3:35 p.m. in Fayetteville, N.C., and at 7:35 p.m. in Charlotte, N.C. Vice President Joe Biden campaigns for Mrs. Clinton in Madison, Wis., at 12:15 p.m. ET. Mrs. Clinton holds rallies in Pittsburgh (12:45 p.m.) and Detroit (2 p.m.). She joins Jay Z for a concert in Cleveland later. Her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine, campaigns in Melbourne, Fla. (5:15 p.m.). Sen. Bernie Sanders campaigns in Iowa and Nebraska for Mrs. Clinton, while former President Bill Clinton campaigns in Colorado and Chelsea Clinton campaigns in New Hampshire.
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump holds rallies in Atkinson, N.H. (noon), Wilmington, Ohio (4 p.m.) and Hershey, Pa. (7 p.m.). His running mate, Gov. Mike Pence, holds rallies in Lansing, Mich. (10 a.m.), Greenville, N.C. (1:30 p.m.) and Miami (7 p.m.)

With five days it’s ……

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Well the Cubs won the World Series. Anything can happen.

So where are we? Depends on which media you read and watch.
She is either the most corrupt person ever to run and will be indicted.
Or, she is the most qualified and ready person ever to run.

Can Trump really win? I think his odds are improving. It is probably up to a 35% chance today. Three weeks ago he was closer to 10%.

This week we said it appeared to be a 294 – 244 electoral vote. We had moved Florida, Ohio and Iowa to him. North Carolina is still a toss up but looking a little better for him. If he can pull that one off he gets to 259.  He made progress in Nevada (4) and has a real shot there too. So he is edging closer to a possibility. His next best shot just might be Colorado (9) Let’s watch the polls there. Maybe he can find a way without Pa. or Va.

Polls today:
ABC has Clinton up again today. She is +2 in that poll. (Trump at 45)
CBS has a new poll out and they say Clinton by 3. (Trump at 42)
IBD says it is a tie. 44% each.
Rasmussen has Trump up 3 today. (Trump at 45).
Economist has Clinton by 3. (Trump at 43).
The LATimes has Trump up 5. (Trump at 48).
Real Clear Politics has Hillary’s lead up to 2.2%. A half point gain.

The Hillary surrogates are all out today across the country.
Trump, his family and Pence are alone out there against that.
Hillary’s ground game could be the big difference. She has a powerful one led by the Democratic party and the Obama one from 2008 and 12.

Stay tuned today for leaks from the FBI investigation. There appears to be a group that believes the DOJ and up, are trying to cover up the Clinton email and foundation mess. They appear angry and frustrated, with stories emerging. There may be one great cover up going on that no matter who wins is going to result in ongoing inquiries. Underlying it all is, did Obama know about the server and was he communicating with her there. If so, his DOJ, who used to be non partial, may be trying to stop investigations for a reason. Plus there is a report that Hillary’s server was hacked five times with a 99% certainty. If that gets confirmed it’s big news.

Now the estimate is 27 million have voted. That would be 40% of the total vote count in 2012. So how much can things be impacted by bombshells now?

You just woke up …..

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Okay it’s one week from today and you just woke up to the fact:
– That Hillary Clinton was elected President yesterday. How do you feel?
– Or, that Donald Trump just won. How do you feel?
Of course in this crazy election there’s a third real possibility. An electoral tie at 269 each. Wouldn’t that be the appropriate for this incredible year.

Can that happen? Yes. In fact easily. Here’s an example.
Trump wins all the Romney states and adds the three we identified yesterday – Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Total 259.
He then wins the state he was in yesterday Wisconsin. Total 269.

Then what? Two states Nebraska and Maine do their electoral votes by Congressional District. Nebraska seems locked to Trump. Maine has one district, it’s second. That district is a toss up. In a 269 tie it could swing one Maine vote (A Clinton state) to Trump and a 270-268 win.
Otherwise a tie goes to the House for a vote. Trump would win there since even the “never Trump” Republicans would vote for him.
You heard it first here.

What do the polls say this AM?
ABC says it’s a tie. (Imagine they have Clinton gaining a point)
IBD says it’s a tie. (Trump + 1 since yesterday.)
Rasmussen says it’s tied. (Same as yesterday).
The LATimes shows Trump up 6. They continue to be an outlier.
Real Clear Politics now has the Clinton lead down to 1.7%

Keep an eye on the electoral college now. That’s all that matters.

A question we’ve asked for months and still have no answer to is this:
– What does Hillary stand for? What is she pushing in this campaign?
Bringing the Miss Universe from Venezuela back on stage to say Trump called her fat last night is kind of desperate in the last week of the campaign.
Trump’s message should be what we have touted for months:
– If you want more of the same she is your candidate. If you want change I am the person. If you’re satisfied with the way things are in the country, if you’re satisfied with our standing overseas, she is your person. If you want a new direction I am your candidate.
Seventy per cent of Americans want change.

Her advantage remains the electoral count with the large states not competitive. California (55), New York (29), Illinois (20) alone are 104.

Her second advantage is the locked in demographic voting groups that are Democratic no matter what.

Her third advantage is the early voting process and how the Democrats register and get the early vote in.

Her fourth advantage is a united party on the campaign trail versus those Republicans failing to endorse or vote Trump. In fact there was a story this AM that George W. Bush, like his Dad, is voting for Hillary. (In that way she can win and blame him for everything. I personally am done with the Bush’s). Here’s an example of her surrogates on the trail today versus Trump’s support:
-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton campaigns in Tempe, Ariz., at 9:30 p.m. ET and in Las Vegas. Her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine, campaigns in Dubuque, Iowa, at 2:45 p.m. ET and in Des Moines with former President Bill Clinton at 8 p.m. ET.  President Barack Obama delivers remarks at a “Get Out The Early Vote” event for Hillary Clinton at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill at 3:15 p.m. Vice President Joe Biden delivers remarks at a “Get Out The Early Vote” Clinton campaign event in Tampa, Fla., at 11:15 a.m. and later in West Palm Beach, Fla.Sen. Bernie Sanders campaigns for Mrs. Clinton in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren campaigns in Nevada.
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump holds a rally in Miami at noon, Orlando, Fla., at 4 p.m. and Pensacola, Fla., at 7 p.m. His running mate, Gov. Mike Pence, campaigns in Mesa, Ariz., at 1 p.m. ET, Las Cruces, N.M., at 4 p.m. ET, and Loveland, Col., at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s see what today brings. The rumor that Wiki Leakes is going to release bombshell Hillary emails is strong. If it’s to occur it will have to be in the next day or two. Anything is still possible.

MEDIA …. HELP

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Where are we a week out? The polls today say:
– ABC now has Trump up 1.
– IBD has Clinton up 1
– LATimes has Trump up 4
– Rasmussen says it’s a tie

So what do we think?
We think there are major events that we don’t know about yet.
– What will Hillary’s team drop on Trump?
– What does Trump’s team have ready to drop on Hillary?
– What has Wiki Leakes saved for this last week?
– Will the FBI actually say more this week?
– Can they say more?
– Will they exonerate her?
– Will they say there is something here?
Without that it’s really hard to predict with any semblance of confidence.

That said, we believe it’s no longer the electoral landslide we were projecting. Too much has hit Hillary to fire up the Trump base and add  those who were wavering. We made some changes in our projections. As a reminder Mitt Romney had 206 electoral votes.
– We now see three states that were Obama ones going Trump:
– Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Total electoral votes for these 53
– We see states Romney won that Trump was lagging in as likely now
– Arizona, Georgia, Missouri and Utah
– The state we see a problem as of today is North Carolina
– Clinton is up 3 for these 15 electoral votes crucial to Trump
Taking the above into account Trump today would end up with 244 votes

So Trump needs to get from 244 to 270 in the next week. His best shots:
– NC (15), CO (8) she is up 4,  NV(4) she is up 2, NH (4) she is up 6
I still don’t believe in the states I call “fools gold” for Republicans:
– MI (16) she is up 6. PA (30) she is up 6

There is the task ahead for Trump. A tough road. Not as tough as last week or last month but a challenge for sure. We have to watch the wave underway to see their impact in these key states.
Our projection today is Hillary 294 and Trump 244  — but closing.

Now what is impacted is Congress. The Republicans will — as of today — hold the house for sure. They now have a chance in the Senate, because even some voting for Hillary don’t want to give her a complete mandate. But it still looks like a likely Democratic win.

Remember Democrats need four pickups if Hillary wins, five if Trump.
The number of seats in jeopardy for Republicans is down but enough to tilt the senate.
– We still see Illinois and Wisconsin as sure Democratic gains.
– We still think Indiana will be a loss but it is getting closer.
– PA is trending toward the Democrat McGinty. She is up 4.
– MO is a pure toss up and a current Republican seat
– NH is a donnybrook. Rep, Ayotte has edged ahead by 2
– NC is up in the air. Rep Burr is up 1.
– The one possible Rep. pick up is Nevada. It is tied today
So the senate is where we have been projecting all along. It may well end with the VP having the deciding vote.

That’s it with a week to go. By the time you read this who knows what “breaking news” will be out there. Vote early? Are you crazy? Listen to the news on the way into the booth!