Follow Up To Yesterday

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Yesterday we laid it out that this election was moving and trending to a Democratic sweep following the MSM coverage since last Friday. Then throughout the day and night all the polls, updates released and coverage talked about a tightening race. They illustrated new polls from FoxNews that showed Trump pulling ahead in three key states. They showed Nate Silver’s five-thirtyeight analysis moving Trump to his highest win percent (42%). They showed Sabato’s Crystal Ball tightening and Hillary down to 272 -213 electoral votes advantage with 51 up for grabs. All great news for Trump supporters right? We were wrong right?

No. We are right. The polls lag because they are taken over days. We said wait until week’s end and you’ll see what we are talking about. Some are beginning to come. Here are two examples this morning.

– The NBC/WSJ poll taken Friday to Monday shows Hillary up 6.
– The LATimes Daily Poll where Trump lead by 7, is today Trump by 2.

Timing is key, so watch as they all catch up to us.

Some state polls released this AM also reflect our analysis.
– Virginia showed Clinton by 7 (Up 4 from last poll)
– Wisconsin (a key for Trump) shows Clinton by 7 (Up 4 from last poll)

This will reflect Senate races as it settles which were trending Republican. We have been forecasting a 50/50 spilt from the outset. Here’s a quick update: (Remember the Republicans lead 54-46).
– Wisconsin and Illinois look like sure Democratic gains (52-48)
– The other eight contested states are all Rep. seats except Nevada
– PA., NH., MO., NC, IN., Fl. AR. and NV.
– We see Rep. holds in FL. AR. MO.
– So the Senate rides on outcomes in NC, PA, NH, IN and NV
I think they’ll win three to make it a 50/50 Senate
Nate Silver gives the Democrats a 60% to win the Senate.

===== Reading Connections For Those Who Want Deeper Insights =====

Ohioans say Trump running against Hillary and the Media.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/21/donald-trump-surges-in-ohio-polls-in-fight-against/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTjJFeU1URmlOelZqWmpVeCIsInQiOiJlbVpzME5jbTBVbk42dUNsM2hvcEk4S0pQWUE3V2xPblRibWhDb202eitiWXRKUnkyYnRcL25Dd0JnQUxOS0R4WXhZZGtUbnFlNVVYbnpcLzBHd2tIc29kc2RHR3ZXUU43SWxDT1Q1MW03R1ZNPSJ9

Remember the IRS scandal against conservative and Tea Party Groups? The Director says he was “mislead” and please “don’t impeach me”.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/21/john-koskinen-irs-chief-says-he-was-misled/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTjJFeU1URmlOelZqWmpVeCIsInQiOiJlbVpzME5jbTBVbk42dUNsM2hvcEk4S0pQWUE3V2xPblRibWhDb202eitiWXRKUnkyYnRcL25Dd0JnQUxOS0R4WXhZZGtUbnFlNVVYbnpcLzBHd2tIc29kc2RHR3ZXUU43SWxDT1Q1MW03R1ZNPSJ9

Follow The Money is an old axiom. In August Clinton far out raised Trump
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/21/hillary-clinton-raised-more-spent-more-donald-trum/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTTJKbFlUa3pZMll4WVRBMiIsInQiOiJGeFFVTXdtM09sUmVEU1lpYWVycCt0Mzd6eXcyZHd5RnpQdFI3UkJGWXh0M2g0TVlRcXp6citaUUwzcGRDVXVMWHpjelNYdTlWZkd3ZmtyM0J3TWpRVzlSZkJ5NGt0aEdiZXo4TVVuWTZydz0ifQ%3D%3D

People still reeling from Bush 41 voting for Clinton. I still don’t understand how Trump calling Jeb low energy is worse than all the names and things the Democrats have called and blamed on the Bushes.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/bush-family-donald-trump-228446

Here’s a prominent Democrat backing Trump. Bet you didn’t hear this.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/rfk-trump-2016-democratic-party-speechwriter-214270

Does it bother you too when Hillary says Trump gives aid and comfort to ISIS and they use him as a recruiting tool? Like her policies have worked? Here’s a strong and clear rebuttal.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_charles_hurt/hillary_clinton_has_experience_fighting_terrorism_all_right_as_a_failure

Did the Morning Joe team meet with Trump to clear things?  Yes says CNN
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/scarborough-brzezinski-meet-trump/2016/09/19/id/749061/
The team says not exactly.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Joe-Scarborough-Trump-Meeting-Lies/2016/09/20/id/749122/

Did I hear that Hillary is off the trail for the balance of the week to prepare for the debate? I ask again, the most qualified and ready person ever needs all this?

Finally did you see Hillary and her “why aren’t I ahead by 50 points” rant?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/09/22/hillary_clinton_why_arent_i_50_points_ahead.html

 

 

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