Just watched the military town hall forum and before the analysis starts I want to say, Trump did fine and in the game where everything is expectations, he succeeded. The issues work for him. He is unblemished by past decisions (he only has to answer for his words, which are enough), but she has to answer for her actions. He held up well and has some work to do for the debate on answering the ISIS, Military General questions and some of his statements. He seemed at ease, while Hillary appeared much stiffer. She had to answer questions, tough ones too. Many tuned in to see Trump stumble, but he didn’t.
Three new national polls today supported yesterdays thoughts here that her lead has narrowed, but she is likely “up 2”. Take a look:
GWU Battleground: Hillary by 2.
Reuters: Hillary by 2.
Economist: Hillary by 2.
New state polls out too, show a tightening.
PPP (a generally Democrat leading poll) has Florida as Trump by 1.
New Hampshire has Clinton by 5 (down from 10)
Arizona (a must for Trump) has Hillary by 1. Bad news for the Trump team
Some states has large Hillary leads: Maine by 9, Vermont by 21, Connecticut by 15, Massachusetts by 17. Rhode Island by 3 and NJ by 4.
We’ve mentioned here a number of times to stay tuned for what Julian Assange is going to leak. Well he now says get ready, next week is release one and Hillary will be the target.
An interesting tidbit that provides hope for Trump from the WSJ today:
“The composition of the undecided pool also is far different than in prior years, data from Wall Street Journal/NBC News polling shows. Typically, undecided voters show little attachment to either party and only slight enthusiasm for the election. They also tend to have lower income levels and educational attainment than voters overall. This year, the pool includes far more upper-income and Republican-leaning voters from suburban and metropolitan communities—areas that often determine which party will win a state. And they form a larger pool than in the last election—about 13% of all voters, compared with 8% in 2012.”
As predicted the numbers are out and she really out raised him last month. Trump raised $90 million last month. Hillary had already reported $143 million.
Plus here’s a surprise also from the WSJ:
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has raised significantly more money than Donald Trump in the heart of the Republican fundraising territory—the oil and gas industry. Shocking to me.
Finally we always talk about the electoral college and how she has an advantage. Here’s a Washington Post study that points it out.
Editors note: There will likely be no blog on Friday due to travel issues.