Early Reads

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It’s starting to look like the debate did have an impact on the race as new numbers come in.
– Rasmussen went from a 5 point Trump lead to a 1 point Clinton one.
– Morning Consult Poll went from Trump +1 to Hillary +3.
– Echelon Insights shows Hillary +5. Before the debate she was plus 2.
– PPP ( A Dem leaning poll) now shows Hillary up 4. (no prior base)
Then the newest key state polls show a Clinton bounce too.
– Fox Michigan – Hillary by 5
– PPP Colorado now shows Hillary by 6
– PPP has Hillary ahead in Florida and North Carolina now by 2 in each
– They also have her ahead in Pa. and Va. by 6 in each
No good news in these post debate polls for Trump. Real Clear Politics which had the race down to under one and today it is up to three.
Based upon the news coverage all week I think this is going to widen more. Trump is in trouble and needs a major event to change things. That electoral blowout we have been discussing is back in focus.

Here are links to three of the polls if you want a deeper analysis.
PPP poll:  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/clinton-leads-in-key-battlegrounds-seen-as-big-debate-winner.html
Rasmussen: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_sep29
Fivethirtyeight:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-early-polls-suggest-a-post-debate-bounce-for-clinton/

The press is continuing it’s onslaught against Trump. No sooner had the Newsweek story about Cuba hit the airwaves, they followed with another hit. This one from the LA Times said Trump “wanted the less attractive woman fired” when he opened a golf course in 2005. They are pounding it and no doubt the Clinton machine is planting the stories. They are pros at the political game. Here’s the story.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-wanted-less-attractive-women-fired-employees-say/ar-BBwMSNu?li=BBnb7Kz

What got little play was the story about Chelsea Clinton’s remarks concerning Trump’s daring to mention her father’s sexual “transgressions”. She was angry about it even though he held back and her Mom was unafraid to bring up charges like the Miss Universe woman. Well, Juanita Broaddrick immediately went after Chelsea. Did you see her tweets? Six devastating tweets. One said, “I was 35 years old when Bill Clinton, Ark. Attorney General raped me and Hillary tried to silence me. I am now 73….it never goes away”. Then she said “your parents are not good people”. She added, “your father was, and probably still is, a sexual predator. Your mother has always lied and covered up for him”.  Wow. Read all six here:
http://www.wnd.com/2016/09/clinton-rape-accuser-drops-twitter-bomb-on-chelsea/

Speaking of the Clinton’s and the White House. You all know the story of them stealing when they left to the point they had to be asked to bring things back. Amazing and we are about to give them the keys again. Well add this. Do you remember the damage the Clinton staff did on the way out? Things like taking the W’s off keyboards? In fact they did all this: “Scatter bumper stickers. Record obscene voice-mail greetings. Damage furniture. White-out computer keyboards. Smear Vaseline over desks. Unplug refrigerators. Write on walls. Take cellphones, TV remotes or presidential medallions. Glue telephones or drawers. Abandon holiday decorations. Smash locks”.
The Obama team is already telling people not to be like the Clintons. But we are giving them the keys again!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/09/29/memo-to-obama-aides-dont-prank-trump-or-clinton-on-your-way-out/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories-2_prank-650a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&wpisrc=nl_sb_smartbrief

Finally Trump back on Twitter this AM at 3 and 5 in the morning is not good. He is keeping a story going that is nothing but bad for him. The answer was to have his team discredit Hillary for bringing the former Miss Universe forward. All they should have said, is take a look at how low she has gone. Check her background and credibility. Show me the tape he called her a cleaning lady. The Clinton team is playing you, the press again, to try and impact the people. If you fall for it, well then it proves your bias. Want a real women’s story who had their lives impacted? Talk to the ones she bullied for her husband. We are through commenting on this junk. American citizens want change and that is us. She is more of the same.

The Beat Goes On …

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We await the post debate polls to see the numbers. In the interim:

The beat on Trump continues in the MSM on how well Hillary did. The biggest post message seems to be Trump is a racist sexist. The former Miss Universe is getting incredible coverage, the message being if you are a woman you cannot back Trump. But you may see that back down as stories emerge on her past and storied activity. She may not hold up to scrutiny but I think the Clinton camp feels they got a bump from her.

When you hear about Trump using Bill Clinton’s past to counter remember it is not to talk about Bill, but how Hillary attacked the women. The MSM leaves you with the impression he is dragging Bill out. Not true. It’s about her calling them bimbo’s and trailer park trash. It won’t win Trump votes, but could stop some from voting for her.

What is also damaging is the Trump camp insiders saying things to the press, off the record of course, about his lack of preparation and freezing on stage. The problem this blog identified from eight months ago was going to be the debates. Trump supporters had this misguided thought he was so smart and had such great people around him that he would beat her down. No way. She is experienced, a pro and quick on her feet whether factual or not. The debates were land mines for him and his team talking to the press is damaging.

Now the Democratic playbook of you are a sexist and racist is tiring. Yet it continues to impact a large number of voters. How many of you remember Obama’s team using the racist card against the Clintons in 2008? Want proof? Here’s the liberal Huffington Post article from then.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/geoffrey-dunn/hillarys-hypocrisy-clinging-to-obama-after-her-racist-dog-whistles-in-2008_b_9011244.html

Do you see the Clinton push with young voters and the talk with Bernie of free college? Let’s see how this works. College costs are too high and students who can vote don’t want loans when they graduate. The Democratic solution? Oh costs are too high, let the government pay. We have a $20 trillion debt to give our kids, but we can get votes here. Yup that’s the way to solve our problems.

Just an opinion here. Remember when Bill was President and the press said over and over Hillary is the smartest person and most qualified to be President? They set her up for 20 years being deterred only because of Obama. Well I think they are doing the same  today with Michelle Obama. Watch. Do you remember any Republican First Lady being treated like that?

Have you noticed that newspapers who backed Republicans forever in places like Dallas, Arizona and Cincinnati are endorsing Hillary now? Well it is hurting their circulation and resulting in cancellations they can’t afford.
http://www.newsmax.com/US/newspapers-endorsement-Hillary-Clinton-subscriptions/2016/09/28/id/750739/

In the meantime former Republicans continue to back Clinton. Senator John Warner of Virginia is the latest. That cadre out on her behalf (Obama, Michelle, Biden, Bill, Kaine, Sanders and Chelsey) is such a contrast to Trump and Pence alone. How can Trump counter this? His best approach is how he is change and they are the establishment. If you like the direction of the country and are satisfied she is your candidate. If you want change I am your choice.

Did you see Gary Johnson fail again on a world question? He couldn’t name a world leader. Actually said he was having an “Aleppo moment”.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/us/politics/gary-johnson-aleppo-moment.html?emc=edit_th_20160929&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=19928571&_r=0

Is the MSM coordinating with the Clinton campaign? Today Newsweek has a cover story saying Donald Trump conducted illegal business with Castro’s Cuba. Think about the timing. Hillary calls him racist to go after the minority vote. An Hispanic Universe winner goes after him tying woman and hispanic votes in. Now the attack is on Cuba and the one Hispanic group for Trump and could swing Florida. Meanwhile Hillary’s activity just skates by. You wonder why Trump voters are so angry.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/donald-trump-conducted-illegal-business-communist-cuba-report-article-1.2810972?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%202016-09-29&utm_term=DailyNewsletter

Did you see the story about Obama sending more troops to Iraq? History will show he pulled out too soon and his pursuit of peace led to more mayhem.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/28/us-deploys-more-troops-to-iraq-for-showdown-with-i/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTVRNelpXUmxOV1ZoWWpneSIsInQiOiJPUExDZ1wvUURHcmxiRndSQ1BmVkgyOVdMVFhYbGthNzFBQjZMcEZOTndVU09RZVh3RTZmeHVxczFlZTVYMzBFWXJ4RkdjRVVSRzBSYTB0YTg2RkZHVERNbEkxQUIyZXpQQWs3RTRQQ3p0TzQ9In0%3D

The first override of an Obama veto happened yesterday. It took a while.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/us/politics/senate-votes-to-override-obama-veto-on-9-11-victims-bill.html

Question: Why does Hillary want to be President? To accomplish and do what? What does she stand for this election?

 

 

 

 

 

A Day After The Debate

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Well the MSM and the Hillary camp went after Trump all day yesterday and continued this AM. A smiling and obviously buoyant Hillary took to the trail. She smiled giddily on her press plane talking to them. They ate it up. This will continue until the next event shakes up the race.

What she and her supporters want that to be is the former Latin Miss Universe winner and Trump’s statements about her. Wow has that gotten play on the networks and MSM. This may cause the entire campaign to get nasty. How long before Trump brings out Juanita Broderick (“Clinton raped me and Hillary covered it up”) Kathleen Willey and others?

By the way, how come the press never covers the secret service who say Hillary treated them badly and called them pigs? Not true you say? Here’s two stories.
http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/secret-service-agent-says-good/

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/19/report-three-clintons-called-secret-service-pigs/

The MSM was unfair all day. Here’s a blatant example. Rudy Guilani was so mad at Lester Holt’s failure to question Hillary that he suggested unless the moderators are checked Trump should skip the rest of the debates. What does the MSM cover all day? They said over and over that aides are suggesting Trump “not do the next two debates”. They never mentioned who or why Guilani said it, implying instead that Trump couldn’t stand up to Hillary. Very unfair. Here’s what Rudy said.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/giuliani-trump-skip-remaining-presidential-debates-article-1.2808735?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%202016-09-28&utm_term=DailyNewsletter

I still think as reported yesterday that this impacts Hillary only a point or two. But add that to her existing 2-3 lead and it becomes big. Time is now passing and the election is only five weeks away.

The VP debate is next week and then the second Presidential debate comes. Trump fans should worry about this one. It is a Town Hall type debate and he has never done one of them. Can he do this format? I really don’t know, but do know it limits the interaction between the candidates as they simply answer questions directed to them. The key again is both ease of doing the Q&A as well as depth of topic knowledge. I always said the debates are going to be a major issue for him and this one truly is.

The first polls will be out later this week that reflect the post debate numbers.

Trump’s other problem is the machine Hillary is sending out to campaign in key states. Obama, Michelle, Bill, Biden, Chelsey and Sanders will all be in key states and spots they can help the most. Republican leaders are not supporting Trump anywhere near this.
What Trump has is loyal supporters in the people. Just look at the online polls, he won everyone. Look at his sell out rally last night. His supporters are loyal and I am sure they will vote. Are there enough of them?

The Way I Saw it

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The election goes on, the debate did not change it. Hillary has a better chance to pick up a point or two than Trump. She has a larger base to pull from and many were on the sideline with her. Add the MSM  declared her the winner and this could influence things today if the Trump camp is not very active with their message.

The moderator (from NBC) helped her. Think about this. What topics did each candidate not want?
Trump did not want his taxes, the birther issue, his woman comments to come up. Holt asked questions about all of them and then challenged Trump’s answers.
Hillary did not want questions about her emails, Benghazi, calling Americans deplorable, immigration and her health records. Holt never asked one.

Don’t you think the questions about these issues make a difference? Asking Trump if he is a sexist racist and not asking her why 50% of Americans are deplorable is unfair in my opinion. This is the tact the Trump camp must take out this AM. It will resonate with his base and some others. Of course the Clinton camp say only losers complain about the moderator. This will allow the Trump supporters to say oh really, like you did about Matt Lauer?

If a question puts you on the defense it makes it harder to be aggressive. She was able to be offensive because of the questions. Then she is a better debater and he was unable to pivot the questions to her issues. He had chances to get back to the server and wiping it clean but didn’t. He was too well behaved!

In the end I think he was able to stand there for 90 minutes. His message was clear to me but I am sure everyone got it. He is for change and she is more of the same. I think the MSM missed that but the American people may not have. The Trump team should ask that today. Who is for change? A version of the Reagan question should be the mantra. You saw the debate, if you’re satisfied with the direction of the country and the future she is your person. If you want change, I am the change.

My only other suggestion is that Trump bury his ego and prepare for the second debate with one on one practice.

PRE DEBATE PASSING MY DESK

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Some pre debate stories passing my desk I thought you might like too.

First, the Rasmussen Poll today says people by 46% to 6% think the moderators in the debate will try and help Hillary over Trump.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/voters_see_debate_moderators_giving_clinton_a_helping_hand
The Hillary camp has been yelling all week they want the moderators to fact check on the spot. Why? She knows the media favors her.
Remember Candy Crowley in the 2012 debate?
Remember the story last week where Andre Mitchell wrote privately to Colin Powell that it’s unthinkable Trump could win? “I know trump controls the convention rules committee but I keep thinking they have to find a way not to nominate him”. Then adds about his nomination,“It is awful.” Yea she’s fair.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/09/24/emails-show-nbcs-andrea-mitchell-telling-colin-powell-trumps-nomination-is-awful.html

Here’s a funny one for you. A Harvard Professor has a column out today and he says if Hillary loses blame the media. The left is so biased and used to universal support and coverage they can’t believe someone might ask Hillary a question. Here’s his column today in papers coast to coast.
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-patterson-clinton-press-negative-coverage-20160921-snap-story.html

Try this exercise. What’s the first word that comes to mind when I ask a question or say a name. Let’s start with Hillary. What came to mind? Really, Liar? Then how come the Clintons and the MSM talk about Trump lying? Are they coordinated to change perceptions? Here’s a story that’s in papers across the nation.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-false-statements-20160925-snap-story.html

Here’s more on the MSM, this was on MSNBC. It was advice to the candidates. Trump was told to “stop lying” and “Show humility”. Hillary’s advice was “Sell her Presidency” and “Be the Clinton who shines in small crowds”. Fair and balanced at work. I can picture their post coverage already.
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/MSNBC-Slammed-Debate-Advice/2016/09/26/id/750183/

After eighteen months of bashing Trump and calling Hillary the most qualified and smartest ever to run for President, now the liberal press are worried about perceptions. Look at what Joy Behar said. “The bar is set so low for Trump if he doesn’t belch in her face he will win”. You and your liberal cronies did that Joy.
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/09/the-view-host-slams-the-debate-expectations-game-if-trump-doesnt-belch-in-her-face-he-will-win/

The NYTimes today.
First story I saw today:
“Millions in U.S. Climb Out of Poverty, at Long Last”. Who knew everything was so much better so quick this year? Remember Hillary is more of the same. Trump is change.
Next story I read the NYTimes saying something nice about Bush. What?
“For Some, Bush-Obama Rapport Recalls a Lost Virtue: Political Civility.
The Bush and Obama families have a deep bond, thanks to the shared experience of life in the White House and George W. Bush’s decorum as an ex-president”.  Wait, Bush the liar is a good guy now? He better not endorse Trump.

I still think she brings debate experience (35 presidential debates) to the table and issue knowledge being in government her entire life, plus a lawyer who knows how to double talk. This is his first ever one on one debate and he is not a deep issue person. He goes on gut and instinct. Huge advantage her. Let’s see.

 

Debate Day.

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Everything yesterday and all day today will be about the debates so we can add nothing but our opinion here.

Hillary has to be prepared after all the time she took off to prepare.
Donald followed a different path, he stayed on the trail.
I expect Hillary’s command of facts to be clear.
Trump fans have to hope he knows enough to stand up for 90 minutes.

============== The Debate In A Nutshell ================

Hillary’s objective, make Trump look out classed and in no way can anyone want to wake up November 9th and realize he is President.
Trump’s objective is to appear rationale and knowledgable enough that he can be President.

================== One Poll Finding ===================
From the AP/GSK poll. What Trump faces and what his opportunity is:

Majority of Americans fear Trump presidency
More than half the country fears a Trump presidency. And only about a third of Americans believe he is at least somewhat qualified to serve in the White House.
In the final sprint to Election Day, a new Associated Press-GfK poll underscores those daunting roadblocks for Donald Trump as he tries to overtake Hillary Clinton.
Moreover, most voters oppose the hard-line approach to immigration that is a centerpiece of the billionaire businessman’s campaign. They are more likely to trust Clinton to handle a variety of issues facing the country, and Trump has no advantage on the national security topics also at the forefront of his bid.
Trump undoubtedly has a passionate base of support, seen clearly among the thousands of backers who fill the stands at his rallies. But most people don’t share that fervor. Only 29 percent of registered voters would be excited and just 24 percent would be proud should Trump prevail in November.
Only one in four voters find him even somewhat civil or compassionate, and just a third say he’s not at all racist.

================ The News Today ======================

The NYTimes, the newspaper that “prints all the news fit to print” endorsed Hillary yesterday. Why is that news? They have endorsed every Democrat since 1960. Who was surprised?
They had a Trump story too. “A Week of Whoppers From Donald Trump”.
Yea, Fair and Balanced.

Washington Post poll yesterday looks about right to me.
Clinton 46, Trump 44, Johnson 5 and Stein 1.
Keys are third parties settling in lower area. Trump can’t crack that 45% number and Hillary can’t reach 50%.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-clinton-trump-in-virtual-dead-heat-on-eve-of-first-debate/2016/09/24/b99c95de-81cb-11e6-8327-f141a7beb626_story.html
Good news in the poll most people expect Hillary will win the debate. Expectations are very important and the more expecting her to win the better.

Here’s a story on the AP poll. American’s don’t like or trust either. The positive for Trump is a steady controlled debate can help him. If he looks Presidential he will exceed the expectation game. I think her long time on stage makes it difficult for her to change images. Can he do it?
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll-dishonest/2016/09/23/id/749910/

Want to read an article that will drive you mad? Check this out about Cheryl Mills, Hillary’s friend and lawyer, who was given immunity in the email case. It turns out she and Director Comey had interactions in past cases. In fact “he complained about her lack of cooperation while probing Clinton scandals in the 1990s”.  Notice this additional quote in the article. “This time the House subpoenaed information from Mills, who not only withheld the documents but, a government committee said, “lied under oath” — prompting staff lawyers to send a criminal referral to the Justice Department demanding prosecutors charge Mills with obstruction of justice and perjury.” Some things never change and Hillary runs for President.
http://nypost.com/2016/09/24/why-did-feds-grant-immunity-to-hilllarys-highly-improper-aide/

Speaking if shady and questionable. President Obama said he learned of Hillary’s private server from the news media (as he learned so many other things if you recall). Really? Remember those emails released late Friday night? Here’s news from them. “President Barack Obama used a pseudonym in email communications with Hillary Clinton and others, according to FBI records made public Friday. The disclosure came as the FBI released its second batch of documents from its investigation into Clinton’s private email server during her tenure as secretary of state”.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/hillary-clinton-emails-fbi-228607

Happy debate watching. Got a prediction.

With two deaths yesterday we mourn the great Arnold Palmer and all he accomplished and represented. Jose Fernandez offered so much to baseball and he was destined to greatness. Without bringing politics into this a Florida Congressional candidate wrote this and the MSM is all over him. Considering that Jose tried three times to escape from Cuba and was in prison for a year what do you think? He said, “To all who will kneel during the anthem today — just remember how Jose Fernandez risked his life just for the chance to stand for it.”

The Weekend – B 4 Debate

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We’ve outlined our thoughts on this first debate a number of times. We won’t repeat here; suffice to say Trump must appear to be knowledgeable and trustworthy with the codes. He has to make people believe they can see him in the job. Hillary’s job is to show her knowledge and experience can make a difference. She needs to illustrate what she stands for, and why she can make a difference. If she can appear likable and tustworthy that would seal the deal for her.

What are experts saying? Here you go:

Kiplinger says 20% of the electorate are key, the ones who can still make up or change their minds:
http://alerts.kiplinger.com/2016/09/for-clinton-and-trump-big-debate-small-target/

There are no breaks planned for the debate if say someone gets say a coughing fit or something. Also Hillary wanted a stool to be taller next to Donald.
http://drudgereport.com/flashny.htm

Pat Buchanan talks the debate and what Trump needs to do. Basically stand toe to toe pass the presidential test.
http://www.wnd.com/2016/09/how-trump-wins-the-debate/

Monica Crowley offers Trump free counsel on how he can “knock out” Hillary.  For her Hillary is carrying the baggage of time in office.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/21/how-donald-trump-can-knock-out-hillary-clinton-in-/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTjJFeU1URmlOelZqWmpVeCIsInQiOiJlbVpzME5jbTBVbk42dUNsM2hvcEk4S0pQWUE3V2xPblRibWhDb202eitiWXRKUnkyYnRcL25Dd0JnQUxOS0R4WXhZZGtUbnFlNVVYbnpcLzBHd2tIc29kc2RHR3ZXUU43SWxDT1Q1MW03R1ZNPSJ9

Newsmax says this debate is key to undecided votes and could change everything.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/clinton-trump-debate-important/2016/09/19/id/748995/

How can Hillary win? Luntz says:
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/frank-luntz-open-letter-hillary-clinton/2016/09/23/id/749900/

Rich Lowery in National Review has a different viewpoint. He thinks Hillary will win on points but Trump can win because of expectations.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/how-trump-could-win-the-debate-214272

Hillary taking surprise trip on Sunday to Charlotte. No doubt to use that in the debate. Then suddenly late Friday night she appeared to cancel it. What happened? Is Trump in her head? Was she worried he would one up her like he did with the Mexico visit? If that’s it, she is in trouble.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/US-vote-Clinton-Charlotte/2016/09/23/id/749912/

One more question for Hillary. If you have a record to run on and plans for the future why have you spent almost all your money so far (over $100 Million) just attacking Donald Trump? If he’s so bad and you’re so accomplished and good, why not talk about your plans to make us even better?

============Don’t Pay Attention It’s Friday Afternoon ==========

So on another late Friday afternoon things get released they hope you won’t pay attention to. First Obama vetoes the right for families to sue Saudi Arabia. The self proclaimed most transparent President ever doesn’t want his citizens to have the right to sue this country. Will congress override? They say they will, now let’s see.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/296862-obama-vetoes-9-11-bill

Oh she got immunity too? Cheryl Mills, Hillary’s former chief of staff got immunity from the FBI. Did you hear about it? That makes five key players  and the FBI found nothing. This smells more everyday.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_FBI_CLINTON_EMAILS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-09-23-11-28-54

Add this now. At 5:30 Friday night the FBI released another 189 pages of reports from their Hillary email investigation. Third time it was on Friday night. The Director says it’s just a coincidence it is Friday night. You believe him?
http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/23/fbi-releases-more-hillary-clinton-investigation-records/

========= Other Interesting Articles You May Want To See =========

It shouldn’t be a surprise. The people worried about voting games are “rushing” applications to make people citizens so they can vote for Hillary. You can’t make this stuff up.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/09/22/email-shows-federal-immigration-bosses-in-ot-push-to-swear-in-new-citizens-due-to-election.html

Remember when Harry Reid went on the Senate floor to lie about Romney not paying taxes? He said again he is “proud of it”. You can’t be prosecuted for what you say on the floor of the senate. So he admits he lied and is proud. What does that say about him and liberals?

http://www.bizpacreview.com/2015/03/31/harry-reid-tells-cnn-hes-proud-of-lying-about-mitt-romneys-taxes-well-romney-didnt-win-did-he-191422

And so Cruz comes off the “never Trump” list too. He did it for political reasons of course. Here is his Facebook post on why. The real reasons he committed to support the primary winner are: 1. He signed the commitment in the primaries. 2. He made enough people mad that in 2018 he will be challenged for reelection. 3. He wants to run in the primaries again and non support meant he was done.
I have news for him. Too late. At the convention was your time. You burned the bridge on the way out. Nice try though. Chris Christie shot himself four years ago. You and John Kasich did a joint suicide this year.
http://Here is his Facebook post on why.

 

 

Friday before The Monday Debate

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As the weekend rolls in everything will focus on Monday’s debate. You will hear endless analysis and “what they should do”. To me the questions are.
– Does Trump have enough knowledge on issues for a 90 minute debate?
– Does Hillary have the ability to do this and not appear shrill or ill?
– Can Trump come across as knowledgeable and Presidential?
– Can he “trump” the media perception of him?
– Can she do anything to convince us she is honest and trustworthy?

I think she goes in as the favorite based upon her experience in such debates and with issue familiarity based upon government experience.

====================== Polls ========================

Updated polls with one exception support our outlook that she has gained since last Friday. The one outlier is the Rasmussen poll.
– Marist Poll:   Clinton up 6 now
– AP Poll:         Clinton up 6
– WSJ:               Clinton by 6
– Rasmussen:  Trump up 6
– LATimes:      Trump up 2 (down from 7)

State polls which usually lag the national ones (due to dates and timing of tracking) now show the same Clinton gains with the exception of Iowa:
– Iowa:             Trump by 7 (A swing state that voted Obama twice)
– Colorado:      Clinton leads in two new polls by 2 and 7.
– Virginia:        Clinton by 7
– Wisconsin:    Clinton by 7
– Florida:          Trump by 1

===== Reading Connections For Those Who Want Deeper Insights =====

Peggy Noonan’s column for this Sunday looks at how the voter feels:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-year-of-the-reticent-voter-1474586866

WSJ blog: Election will be a vote for or against Hillary.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/09/21/general-election-will-be-a-vote-for-or-against-clinton-wsjnbc-news-poll/?mod=djemCapitalJournalDaybreak

Why is okay for athletes to protest but not express other feelings? Funny how “free expression” is so one sided to the left.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mariners-scold-catcher-tweets-charlotte-protesters-article-1.2802585?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%202016-09-23&utm_term=DailyNewsletter

When did Trump turn racist? Jesse Jackson once praised his efforts?
http://nypost.com/2016/08/31/jesse-jackson-once-sang-donald-trumps-praises/

Did you know one of Trump’s Ohio campaign leaders resigned for “racial comments”? She was replaced by an African American supporter.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/trump-campaign-chair-ohio-resigns-racial-remarks-article-1.2801991?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%202016-09-23&utm_term=DailyNewsletter

Did you see Hillary wants to raise the estate tax to 65%? Claims it will get the rich, knowing full well they will avoid it. But it sounds good to voters.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/clinton-seeks-big-jump-in-estate-tax-1474588735?mod=e2tw

The “never Trumpers” are starting to come home. I heard Michael Reagan last night relent “can’t have Hillary”, and here’s more. It makes the Bushes look even worse.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/09/23/ricketts-nevertrump-family-boards-trump-train/

According to WSJ “Progressives are assembling a list of vetted candidates for top posts in a potential Clinton administration”. The goal is “to pull the party to the left before and after the November election”. Oh goody.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/progressives-want-say-on-filling-administration-posts-if-hillary-clinton-wins-1474502066?mod=djemCapitalJournalDaybreak

Follow Up To Yesterday

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Yesterday we laid it out that this election was moving and trending to a Democratic sweep following the MSM coverage since last Friday. Then throughout the day and night all the polls, updates released and coverage talked about a tightening race. They illustrated new polls from FoxNews that showed Trump pulling ahead in three key states. They showed Nate Silver’s five-thirtyeight analysis moving Trump to his highest win percent (42%). They showed Sabato’s Crystal Ball tightening and Hillary down to 272 -213 electoral votes advantage with 51 up for grabs. All great news for Trump supporters right? We were wrong right?

No. We are right. The polls lag because they are taken over days. We said wait until week’s end and you’ll see what we are talking about. Some are beginning to come. Here are two examples this morning.

– The NBC/WSJ poll taken Friday to Monday shows Hillary up 6.
– The LATimes Daily Poll where Trump lead by 7, is today Trump by 2.

Timing is key, so watch as they all catch up to us.

Some state polls released this AM also reflect our analysis.
– Virginia showed Clinton by 7 (Up 4 from last poll)
– Wisconsin (a key for Trump) shows Clinton by 7 (Up 4 from last poll)

This will reflect Senate races as it settles which were trending Republican. We have been forecasting a 50/50 spilt from the outset. Here’s a quick update: (Remember the Republicans lead 54-46).
– Wisconsin and Illinois look like sure Democratic gains (52-48)
– The other eight contested states are all Rep. seats except Nevada
– PA., NH., MO., NC, IN., Fl. AR. and NV.
– We see Rep. holds in FL. AR. MO.
– So the Senate rides on outcomes in NC, PA, NH, IN and NV
I think they’ll win three to make it a 50/50 Senate
Nate Silver gives the Democrats a 60% to win the Senate.

===== Reading Connections For Those Who Want Deeper Insights =====

Ohioans say Trump running against Hillary and the Media.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/21/donald-trump-surges-in-ohio-polls-in-fight-against/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTjJFeU1URmlOelZqWmpVeCIsInQiOiJlbVpzME5jbTBVbk42dUNsM2hvcEk4S0pQWUE3V2xPblRibWhDb202eitiWXRKUnkyYnRcL25Dd0JnQUxOS0R4WXhZZGtUbnFlNVVYbnpcLzBHd2tIc29kc2RHR3ZXUU43SWxDT1Q1MW03R1ZNPSJ9

Remember the IRS scandal against conservative and Tea Party Groups? The Director says he was “mislead” and please “don’t impeach me”.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/21/john-koskinen-irs-chief-says-he-was-misled/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTjJFeU1URmlOelZqWmpVeCIsInQiOiJlbVpzME5jbTBVbk42dUNsM2hvcEk4S0pQWUE3V2xPblRibWhDb202eitiWXRKUnkyYnRcL25Dd0JnQUxOS0R4WXhZZGtUbnFlNVVYbnpcLzBHd2tIc29kc2RHR3ZXUU43SWxDT1Q1MW03R1ZNPSJ9

Follow The Money is an old axiom. In August Clinton far out raised Trump
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/21/hillary-clinton-raised-more-spent-more-donald-trum/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTTJKbFlUa3pZMll4WVRBMiIsInQiOiJGeFFVTXdtM09sUmVEU1lpYWVycCt0Mzd6eXcyZHd5RnpQdFI3UkJGWXh0M2g0TVlRcXp6citaUUwzcGRDVXVMWHpjelNYdTlWZkd3ZmtyM0J3TWpRVzlSZkJ5NGt0aEdiZXo4TVVuWTZydz0ifQ%3D%3D

People still reeling from Bush 41 voting for Clinton. I still don’t understand how Trump calling Jeb low energy is worse than all the names and things the Democrats have called and blamed on the Bushes.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/bush-family-donald-trump-228446

Here’s a prominent Democrat backing Trump. Bet you didn’t hear this.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/rfk-trump-2016-democratic-party-speechwriter-214270

Does it bother you too when Hillary says Trump gives aid and comfort to ISIS and they use him as a recruiting tool? Like her policies have worked? Here’s a strong and clear rebuttal.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_charles_hurt/hillary_clinton_has_experience_fighting_terrorism_all_right_as_a_failure

Did the Morning Joe team meet with Trump to clear things?  Yes says CNN
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/scarborough-brzezinski-meet-trump/2016/09/19/id/749061/
The team says not exactly.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Joe-Scarborough-Trump-Meeting-Lies/2016/09/20/id/749122/

Did I hear that Hillary is off the trail for the balance of the week to prepare for the debate? I ask again, the most qualified and ready person ever needs all this?

Finally did you see Hillary and her “why aren’t I ahead by 50 points” rant?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/09/22/hillary_clinton_why_arent_i_50_points_ahead.html

 

 

What I See

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I saw Hillary have the three to four worst weeks you could have that culminated in her collapsing walking to a car. I saw that lead to more questions about her truthfulness, honesty and health. I saw the polls tighten enough so that the experts began questioning the electoral college numbers and narrowing the gap.

But, I also saw that Trump never really caught up. In the RCP average he got as close as one point. So after all that, he could not catch up, much less take a lead.

Since Friday I have seen the media at its biased best. It has been one big Trump bashing after another. They not only stopped his momentum but you will see the polls by the weekend are back to the four point Clinton lead and electoral sweep. It started with the birthers issue, moved to his foundation spending, to skittles, to charges of racism over vetting. Add the Bush 41 announcement he is voting for Hillary, that has been played up big time. Then cap it off with the unified Democrats out in force. In fact Obama announced he will be out two days a week for her from here on in.

ABC World News capped it all last night with a story about Syrian refuges. They went to a Syrian camp to show the life they were living there trying to escape the war. Then they followed a warm loving family to America. This was followed by a six year old girl going to her first class in an LA class room. It was contrasted by Donald Trump calling for a halt to Syrian immigration. A total one sided hatchet job.

The MSM has delighted in this bashing. Yesterday Hillary took the day off again to “debate prep”. Wait, the most qualified person ever has to take how many days to prep? So the media simply plays it that way, “Hillary Clinton off the trail to debate prep”. They then took an average five minutes to bash Trump one story after another. A total beat down, and it will show up in the polls by the weekend.

I would say this is “over”, but it would be wiser to wait a week to see the first debate. I will say, what I have for a good while, that something dramatic has to happen or this will be a Democratic sweep of monumental proportions. Republicans nominated the wrong candidate to beat a flawed Democrat. Any Democrat begins with a locked in advantage and it is showing here. You nominate a flawed candidate, with an ego beyond control and a mouth that often roars before the brain thinks and you have a problem.

How confident are you in the debate? I keep remembering Candy Crowley defending Obama, wrongly as it turned out, in his Benghazi attack. A conservative Republican has a tough road to win. This year, their candidate cannot, in my opinion, overcome the Democrat edge, the biased media and himself.

Trending…

Editors Note: Tuesday’s Blog early. Time may change to later delivery.

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We relayed and felt that beginning Friday with the birther issue coverage that Trump’s momentum was stalled and Hillary was on the way back up. We know it now as polls out today reflect the change. NBC news has Hillary up 5. The LATimes Daily Poll saw Trump lose two points the past few days. Why is this happening?
– The media has been pounding Trump. CNN, MSNBC, the networks and print media have been relentlessly negative on him and his son Donald Jr.
– An example is Jon Karl on ABC. In talking about the election and the terror actions this week he says: “People are contrasting Hillary’s steady calm leadership versus Trump’s wild ….” Not exactly fair and balanced.
– In fact you could have watched any news station and seen the same with the exception of FoxNews. Two different worlds for sure. Their coverage is not always accurate. Look what CNN did yesterday:
http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/09/20/racial-profiling-cnn-falsely-accuses-trump/
– The reality of closing the gap causes some people to stop and say “do I really trust Trump with the nuclear codes?” It causes some to pause.

Add to this the Democrats have been out with their stars in full force. Did you see Obama’s passion to his supporters that if they didn’t vote for Hillary he would consider it an insult? That is what he, Michelle, Bill, and Biden are bringing now and will until election day. This election is about turnout and they are all out to rev up the Democrat base.

In the meantime Republicans won’t support Trump. Did you see the news that Bush 41 is voting for Hillary? He told this to a Kennedy? I said this before, I am done with the Bushes.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/exclusive-george-hw-bush-to-vote-for-hillary-228395

Look at John Kasich in Ohio a must win state and he is so anti Trump.
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/09/kasich-issues-fck-you-to-gop-chair-trump-and-priebus-responsible-for-potential-national-wipeout/

So what does it all mean? It just illustrates again why the road for Trump is near impossible. The only reason this is still a race is because the opponent is Hillary Clinton. People simply do not trust or like her. Think about this. What if Joe Biden had run, where would this race be now? What if Marco Rubio had won the Republican nomination, where would this race be? Amazing isn’t it?

The best chance for Trump is in the debate. If he can stand for 90 minutes, on the same stage and not appear to be the danger the media and he himself has presented at times, he can make progress. It’s called the Presidential test. It’s how Reagan did in Carter. I don’t have the confidence Trump can do that. Here’s an interesting assessment.
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/09/gop-policy-expert-predicts-debate-failure-for-trump-he-cant-fake-his-way-through-90-minutes/

======================= Quick Hits =========================

Remember this blog four years ago focusing on issues like the Fair Tax and not personalities?  What does Hillary stand for? Other than a wall what does Trump stand for?

Remember when the legislature in NJ passed a massive (.23 cents) gallon gas tax?  They had to have it now or pot holes would not be fixed. It fell just short in the senate. So how bad are roads? I bet they found a way to move money from somewhere else to cover costs. But, it won’t go away I promise. Once liberals see a way to get more money they stay on it.

Liberal pundits had trouble this week with the Terror attack. Some still won’t call NJ, NY and Minn. terror. None by the way involved guns which made their immediate go to rant not easy. Still msnbc tried.
http://www.breitbart.com/2nd-amendment/2016/09/19/msnbcs-chris-hayes-criticizes-guns-ny-nj-bombings/

The issue of debt is one we keep harping on. Here’s a story on it. Why don’t people see the problem with spending what we don’t have?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/19/a-reality-check-of-the-election/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTmprek5UQTFNR1ExWW1ObCIsInQiOiIwTTBac003U0t5QkgxMjFsZE9UclJSc3U3a3FCSkpQMTdcL0o3WlAxXC96TWlmMjBPQ2UzSXpGeVJKQ0VRZUtrbm4wR2NvM3F6SGtEbUhSUEpFOVd0MmIyeTZaOXlYenNrVjhsVGZ5bGJCb3dRPSJ9

Updates and This and That

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At 11:30 AM on Monday, President Obama finally made a statement on the dual bombings in NY and NJ (but nothing on the Minn. attack until after 5:00). So let’s see it took almost 48 hours to hear from him. I wonder if it was a police officer shooting how long it would have taken.

No doubt the Presidential race tightened over the past month. Here’s an update from one of the most respected analysts Larry Sabato, Univ. of Virginia, Center of Politics and writer of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. His analysis coincides with ours. A narrowing, but still a Clinton electoral edge.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/the_trump_surge

Remember when we said wouldn’t it be interesting if the election came down to a state like Maine that delivers it’s electoral votes by congressional district voting? Well Kiplinger has a story now on how it could make Trump President.
http://alerts.kiplinger.com/2016/09/can-a-rural-congressional-district-make-trump-president/

Peggy Noonan had a terrific article on why people consider Hillary shady.
https://patriotpost.us/opinion/44897

In the mode of what does Hillary stand for I found this interesting.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_ted_rall/team_clinton_attacks_trump_s_lies_with_lies

One of the most under appreciated skill sets (IMO) are the cartoonists who say so much in one drawing. Here’s an example from the Washington Times that is not favorable to Hillary. Scroll to next and you’ll appreciate their daily working.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/cartoons/hillary-files/my-fellow-americans-and-you-basket-deplorables/

We are nearing a $20 Trillion dollar budget deficit. It has doubled in the past eight years under Obama and should be a major issue. We worry about children and grandchildren, how are they going to pay this debt? That is why this story really irks me. It will you too.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Biden-weekend-travel-Air-Force-Two/2012/06/04/id/441168/

Here’s an interesting article from Stephen Moore who is a top Trump economic advisor. He contrasts state tax polices and why he is recommending what he is to Trump. Note the numbers he cites on people moving from high tax to low tax areas (over 3 Million per year), and where job growth was (Texas created more jobs from 2007-14 than the other 49 states combined).
http://www.newsmax.com/StephenMoore/prosperity-red-state-economy-jobs/2016/09/14/id/748208/

The Oliver Stone movie on Edward Snowden raised the issue liberals love with him. Is he a hero or traitor. Michael Goodwin in the NYPost wrote this article on how it is not working.
http://nypost.com/2016/09/18/edward-snowden-isnt-a-patriot-and-doesnt-deserve-a-pardon/

Did you see the story about how the U.S. attacked Syrian forces by mistake killing and wounding as many as 200 and helping ISIS? The MSM did not give it much cover but it was/is a big international issue. Imagine if Bush were President what kind of coverage it would have gotten.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/russia-and-syria-blame-us-led-coalition-for-deadly-strike-on-syrian-troops/2016/09/17/8dabf5d6-7d03-11e6-8064-c1ddc8a724bb_story.html

Back to the birther issue. Here’s a story from 2008 the press forgot. Look at what happened and who Obama blamed then.
http://www.politico.com/story/2008/02/obama-slams-smear-photo-008667

Interesting article in the Washington Times on the Generals, budget cuts and national security in light of Trump controversy last week.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/18/president-obama-wary-of-generals-admirals-commandi/

We’ve mentioned this before and it still sticks with us. The press and liberal media made Michael Jackson a hero. I think he was a child abuser. Look at this new suit. Choose your heroes carefully.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/michael-jackson-ran-elaborate-child-sex-abuse-operation-suit-article-1.2790802?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%202016-09-14&utm_term=DailyNewsletter

And this one was too funny not to include. Hillary’s health has driven the Mexican Peso down below a “psychological level”because Trump might win.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/analysts-cite-clintons-illness-plunge-mexico-peso-202534473.html

 

A “B” Weekend .. Birthers and Bombs

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We started the weekend in a Trump firestorm as the MSM delighted in attacking him on the birther issue. It was as if this was all new and not being put to bed. They saw it as the chance to stop his momentum.  He got beat up badly and by Saturday night it was clear to me that Hillary’s slide was over and this was hurting. This AM despite all the new news, shows like Morning Joe were all over this and attacking him relentlessly. They won’t let go. Remember for Obama, Michelle and their supporters it is personal. You will hear this again. For Hillary it’s a way to reach Africian-Americans and drive turnout. They are not so excited to vote for her, and this will help.

Then the bombs came. First in New Jersey and because it luckily went off when the Marine race was held up no one was hurt. It didn’t seem to get the play it deserved because the media was focused on the birther issue. Then Saturday night the bombs in NYC. Again at first the thought was the first bomb was maybe an accident of some type. It was being downplayed. It wasn’t until they found the second NYC device that there was a recognition this was real. The Mayor in NYC has yet, of this AM, to call this terrorism. What? A bomb goes off, another is denoted and it is not terrorism? Mr Politically Correct Mayor, it doesn’t have to be any particular group to be terrorism. If a bomb kills and wounds your citizens from anywhere it is terror. You’re no less wounded or dead by who plants and sets it off.

They still haven’t tied the NJ and NYC bombs together, I heard the Mayor say this AM. I predict he will catch up later today and do that.

Trump’s immediate reaction was we were bombed. He was clear and loud. He was also ahead of the facts. Hillary was so measured that it is going to hurt her. She was low key, looked tired and frail. She said bomb and then preceded to attack Trump for calling it a bombing. As the day unfolds she is going to take some heat on this. Here’s a story and video if you missed it.     https://news.grabien.com/story.php?id=518

Add the terrorist attack in Minnesota (attacker was called “a soldier of the Islamic State”), there will be a lot in the news today on all this. Let’s see how this plays out, but as the get tough candidate this could help Trump. He needs something to divert the MSM from the birther issue.

——————Quick Hits From The Weekend ————

Did you hear about the attack on a Philadelphia Police Officer while she sat in her car? She was badly wounded. That was followed by a second night of police attacks. This should be bigger news.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/e95469e6ecd245cca25f85a583d11e96/officers-fired-upon-2nd-night-row-philadelphia

Want some examples of the birther stories. By the way. In all this birther issue have you heard anyone say this. If Obama would have released his birth certificate instead of letting the issue go on for years there would have been no issue. The issue died when he released the full certificate. Was that so hard?

The Washington Post is anti Trump ran this:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/15/the-trump-campaign-acknowledges-the-truth-of-obamas-birthplace-layering-it-with-a-number-of-falsehoods/

Liberal blogs:
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/09/internet-explodes-with-disgust-after-trump-uses-birther-spectacle-to-shill-for-his-hotel/

A story that supports with some facts Hillary’s team amy have raised the issue first.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article102354777.html

So the B’s are the news today. Birthers and Bombs.
Real Clear Politics this AM showed the Clinton lead down to 1 point. That is shocking to the MSM and this bomb news is unwelcome to them with the birther issue available.

I still think the election comes down to who people are against more than who they are for.

Back On The Trail

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So Hillary’s back on the trail and the race is joined once again. Trump continues to keep a busy, busy schedule. Her’s will be measured in the days ahead. While she was gone, he continued gaining ground and closing the gap. What do the polls say? (I am using 4 person polls since that is reality, with the knowledge that the third party numbers will likely drop)
National:
CBS:                    Tie 42-42.  Johnson 8, Stein 2
Rasmussen:        Trump 42  Clinton 40, Johnson 7, Stein 2
LATimes:            Trump by 6  (they only track the two leading candidates)
Qunnipiac:          Clinton 41  Trump 39, Johnson 13, Stein 4
Reuters:              Clinton 39, Trump 39, Johnson 8, Stein 2
Economist:         Clinton 42, Trump 40, Johnson 5, Stein 3
FoxNews:            Clinton 41, Trump 40, Johnson 8, Stein 3

Take your choice, but it shows a close race and Trump gains. In fact the RCP average now shows Clinton up 1.1% only. (42% to 40.9%)

A few things to note on this Trump rise:
He remains in that 40-45 range that we have talked about.
She has fallen more than he has gained.
What will happen once the dust settles and she is back on the trail?
Can he drive himself over that 45% number?
Can she convince people she is healthy and trustworthy?
More voters appear to be voting against rather than for a candidate than ever.
The debate looms large.
Can he pull a Reagan and stand on the stage and appear calm and ready for the job?
Can she make him appear unknowledgeable and get him off his game?
She has lowered expectations for him by her presentation of his ability and personality. Expectations are everything.
The stakes in this first debate are big as any since Reagan and Carter squared off for the lone debate, four days before the election.

The state polls we talked so much about yesterday are trending his way.
State Polls:
Trump had lot’s of good news yesterday. He was up in:
Col by 4, Iowa by 8, Ohio by 3, Mo by 13, Ga by 4, Tx by 7. Fl by 3, Nv by 2
Clinton was up in:
Mi by 3, Va by 3, Maine by 3, and Mass by 26

To put these numbers in perspective if Trump held all the states he leads in above added to the 163 we said were solid yesterday he would have 247 electoral votes. Add Arizona which we think he will win and he has 258. That’s still 12 shy of election, which illustrates his challenge.  Stay tuned.

The MSM, as we thought, started to turn on Trump yesterday. As an example, ABC Evening News did a hatchet job on him with three negative stories. One was on Donald Jr., who went on this morning to challenge them. The morning network and cable shows all went after Trump on the birther issue. Next will be the taxes again. If the Trump momentum continues it will be interesting to watch. They (the MSM) are getting a little nervous with his rise. Watch them and you can see they wonder, “how is this guy still in the race against our Hillary”. Hillary for her part is bashing Trump at every turn. Her twitter account is one big Trump bash with dozens and dozens of constant negative tweets. No positive messages.

======================  Quick Hits ========================

Remember all the charges of Trump paying the Florida $25K campaign donation to call off an investigation? It was an answer to the Clinton Pay to Play Foundation charges. Well the NYTimes had a story saying the timeline didn’t fit the charges. Did you hear that on the MSM?
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/15/us/politics/pam-bondi-donald-trump-foundation.html?emc=edit_th_20160915&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=19928571&_r=1

Did you here this story about Trumps sister?
“Judge Maryanne Trump Barry, the 78-year-old sister of Republician presidential candidate Donald Trump, has given Fairfield University a $4 million gift. Barry, a senior judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, is a longtime supporter of, and 2011 honorary degree recipient from, the university. The annoucement of her gift was made Wednesday by the Rev. Jeffrey P. von Arx, president of Fairfield University. The gift will fund scholarships to enable young people to pursue an education at Fairfield, and will permanently endow Fairfield’s Center for Ignatian Spirituality.”

Did you see this story on the MSM from a Democratic donor who said the Clinton’s hate Obama and call him “that man”?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/14/hillary-clinton-calls-obama-that-man-dc-leaks-emai/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWlRJeFpHWTFPVGcyTTJVNSIsInQiOiJYRElwQzR3TFd2ZU5zM20rdDJaVm5xYk9YRk92clwvVGRyVWtLN2xBZWFaQUtqaUo0VWhrU09DRSt5MU4zcThDMk03MXBOZmx3MlFPMWtPRDB2WlR0T1ZTY01kK092T0hNQWkzTVArMUpyTkk9In0%3D

An Election Assessment

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With eleven days to the seminal moment of debate one I thought it would be a good time to assess where we are and what the outcome looks like.

Trump has closed the gap without question the past month. After the DNC and before Kelly Anne Conway arrived this was heading for a monumental Democratic sweep. Today Trump has a chance. How much? Growing, but I say about a 35% shot entering debate one. Why?

It’s about electoral votes. Clinton has some big and smaller states locked:
California (55), New York (29), Illinois (20), NJ (14), Wash (12) Mass (11), Md (10), Ct (7), NM (5) RI (4) Haw (4) Del (3) Vt. (3) and DC (3).
That’s 180 of the 270 needed to win.

Her path is easier. Think of two places I call fools gold for Republicans:
Pa (20) and Va (13). These 33 added to the 180 equals 213.

Now her path is wide open to get to 270. Think traditional Dem. states:
Mich (16), Minn (10) and she gets to 239.
From there she needs any combination like:
Fla (29) and Iowa (6) and she has 274
Ohio (18), Wi (10), NH (4) and she has 270
Colo (9), NC (15) and Nev. (6) are other places she is either favored or tied.

So you can see the combination for her to get to 270 are many and varied.

Now Trump has a rougher road. He looks strong in:
Tx (38) and then 20 smaller states totaling 125 electoral votes.
Thus his base appears to be 163.

He has to hold two contested Republican states Ar. (11) and Ga. (16)
Total 190

So to get to 270 he needs all of the above plus three major states:
Fl (29), Ohio (18) NC (15)  This gets him to 252
———-
Then he needs 18 additional from:
Iowa (6), Wi (10), NH (4), Mich. (16) or Minn (10)

You can see in these numbers the challenge he (and any Republican) has. What does it look like now?
I think based upon today Trump can win Florida and Ohio.
N. Carolina looks like a true toss up. Hard to see him winning without it. Where the other 18 come from is a challenge. My best assessment today is: Iowa (6). NH (4) and WI (10) are his best hopes.

We’ll watch these key states for you as we proceed.

One interesting thing to remember. Two states award their electoral votes by region. So it is possible for Hillary to win Maine and Trump to get one of their three electoral votes. This is very possible. Imagine a one electoral vote win based upon that scenario.

One last thought on this. Turnout. There is little real excitement on either side for their candidate. Many are voting against the other guy (or woman). Turnout may not be big and that could impact everything. We’ve said a number of times that it appears Trump’s high is 45% of the electorate. If turnout drops that 45% can be bigger than a normal election. I think as of today we will see a drop in turnout.

Of course key events can change everything so stay tuned for the debates, health updates, Obama on the trail, Trump off the teleprompter and nasty commercials.

———– Quick Updates —————

Biased media? Remember  yesterday we shared Bill Clinton’s “frequent” comment on Hillary’s health? CBS edited that word out of it’s coverage:
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Hillary-Clinton-Bill-Clinton-CBS-TMZ/2016/09/13/id/748110/

Here’s a very encouraging AP story for Trump on voter registrations in the key states we talked about above:
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d1c611a35aa5488789e0ad0cf4f2e818/gop-gains-ground-dems-voter-registration-key-states

Want to get mad again about the FBI and Hillary’s emails? A close connected friend told me a year ago the FBI was told not to press charges. Check this story from yesterday.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/7/fbi-managers-instructed-to-exonerate-hillary-clint/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiT1RVd05tUXhaVGhrTkRSaSIsInQiOiJ5VkhETWhhdjVmeFd2cFhNNGtyRFR1bUVRUWpNTndDYXlVaWtZbUs4TVNaTG9EZXN3MndXVmhaMWdNN0tLd0lEU2hOV1NGa0RPKzBpWWprZE9OTnFSSjRrOTQ3dWlpbEtLUUYrTHRcL2lmUTg9In0%3D

Is there a divide in the country? Read this on concern about Hillary’s health from Rasmussen. overall 50% are concerned, but only 28% of Democrats are.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/clinton_s_health_is_just_another_partisan_issue

Follow what I say (not what I do)

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It’s a rough few days for Hillary as this issue of her honesty and trustworthiness remains front and center. Not good days for her when even her friends get mad. The media is fine with her misleading and outright lying at times; just don’t do it to them. How could she not tell us about her pneumonia they want to know. They’re hurt, like when a friend lets you down.

We don’t know but don’t you get the feeling there is more to Hillary’s medical issues than they are sharing? Their lies, like she went to her daughters and ran around for an hour and a half with the grandkids doesn’t pass the intelligence test. First she didn’t look ready to run anywhere on Sunday, maybe roll. Plus if she had pneumonia did she really play with the kids? Then add things like this, did you see Bill Clinton’s interview and how he stumbled from “frequently” to “rarely” that this happens to Hillary?
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/bill-clinton-hillary-frequently-rarely-faint-article-1.2790193?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%202016-09-14&utm_term=DailyNewsletter

It won’t last that long so enjoy it. Watch how the Clinton team pivots to Trump’s taxes and he is hiding everything. Watch the media begin to equate taxes to hiding health news. Watch how her allies attack Trump now. Two examples this AM. The Attorney General in NY is going after the Trump Foundation. Pay no attention to that. They have a long running feud and Trump has gone after him. Then Newsweek does a cover about the foundation and it’s funding, casting spells on it. As friends do, they will forgive her and try (in their minds) to even the playing field.

Then they will send the guns out early to rev up a reluctant base. Obama will be all out for her, he despises Trump for the birther issue and all he represents. He will drive the minority vote. Biden will be very active and Bill will go non stop now. They know some bad weeks have closed the gap and they will try and stem them and begin to widen things. The MSM will eat anything these three throw their way and help a lot.

The Trump camp will continue playing up the Hillary “deplorable” remark big time. Great move bringing minority event attendees to the stage and having them say they are not “deplorable”. In fact they ask, what is she talking about. I don’t think the Hillary camp thinks the deplorable remark will hurt her. They figure a Trump voter is locked in and they want others to know who a Trump voter is.

Yesterday morning Kelly Anne Conway who is doing a great job as Trump’s manager really took on CNN in an interview. She went right after the biased questions. Watch part of it here.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/13/politics/kellyanne-conway-liar-donald-trump/index.html
   Here’s a second part. It went on but I can’t find it. It is worth your time.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/13/politics/kellyanne-conway-liar-donald-trump/index.html

Here’s an example of we need to be open to other viewpoints from the left. North Carolina passed a bathroom law. You use the bathroom of your birth. That has incensed liberal America that they have pulled events, all star games and travel to the state. The latest is the NCAA pulling seven dates. What happened to tolerance for other views? I should be tolerant if a man considers himself a woman today and goes into my daughter or granddaughters locker room, but where does tolerance exist for another view?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/12/citing-bathroom-law-ncaa-pulls-7-championship-even/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTXpVM1l6ZzVOV0U0TWpneiIsInQiOiI0UDhQaTNZN1hJXC9HbXYwSjNnS1pZdVRBTDRuVVVOdFBYSlNzMjRaXC9FM1NON3FxcDcrMU5BNk1qaHhoS0xKQ0tYcE9TY2NPcEFpVHh1ZW5mMGVGTU5ENkJnR3RjeGZLN21SbmFVbTlwSW5ZPSJ9

Yesterday was the hearing in Congress with Hillary’s private email server leads. One didn’t show (the lead guy), two others took the fifth. What a surprise. At least they didn’t lie! But Monday was interesting, Congress had the FBI in and wanted to know why they sent them redacted information. They then subpoenaed the FBI person on the spot on live TV to deliver it all. Did you see that on the MSM?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/12/hillary-clinton-email-server-investigation-leads-t/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTXpVM1l6ZzVOV0U0TWpneiIsInQiOiI0UDhQaTNZN1hJXC9HbXYwSjNnS1pZdVRBTDRuVVVOdFBYSlNzMjRaXC9FM1NON3FxcDcrMU5BNk1qaHhoS0xKQ0tYcE9TY2NPcEFpVHh1ZW5mMGVGTU5ENkJnR3RjeGZLN21SbmFVbTlwSW5ZPSJ9

By the way did you see what Green Party candidate Jill Stein said? She would not have killed Osama Bin Laden. ““I think assassinations. . . they’re against international law to start with and to that effect, I think I would not have assassinated Osama bin Laden but would have captured him and brought him to trial,”

Enough of her.

Two stories of interest from the WSJ.

First: Don’t they make a lot of mistakes that won’t happen again at the Clinton camp?
“Top Clinton officials acknowledged earlier Monday that the campaign made mistakes handling Mrs. Clinton’s exit on Sunday. Press secretary Brian Fallon said the staff had erred in failing to provide information for 90 minutes after Mrs. Clinton’s early departure from the memorial event in lower Manhattan, even as video clips circulated on social media showing her slumping as she tried to step into a van”.
Second: This one could potentially hurt and may be a surprise.
“Donald Trump’s proposed ban on Muslim immigrants has provoked widespread outrage and potentially unprecedented interest in the presidential election by the fast-growing Muslim community. Muslims make up only about 1% of the U.S. population, according to the Pew Research Center. But the community is concentrated in several large swing states that could influence the November election, including Virginia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. The U.S. Council of Muslim Organizations, the largest coalition of national and local Muslim groups, aims to register one million voters by the Nov. 8 election”.

Two old adages come to mind to close this out today.
1. May you live in interesting times. We do.
2. It’s not the voters that matter, it’s the people who count the voters.

Health, Russia and Taxes

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The questions about Hillary’s health got louder on Monday as we suspected. Out came the “doctors” with their “possible” causes of her issues. (Story below). When she returns to the campaign trail Hillary will have to be energetic and not show any signs. She is on thin ice now and her friends in the MSM are questioning this hidden news of the pneumonia. Trump announced he took a full physical last week and will release all numbers and results this week. Hillary said she will too. Can we believe anything they say?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/11/hillary-clintons-health-scare-pneumonia-diagnosis-/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTjJJd1pEbGpNemMyTURCaiIsInQiOiJBSkl0N1ZcL3UzXC9tUlwva0JQXC92TE9UZVVtUXJ2N2t6RkE5YmdZNWVBaXRYRmVGaVhZQkNXaU9uaEtYXC9ZT3J2RldTekl6K3VrK0JDNXJZNHdPSGh4WkdGelNDbXIxcEVvSGxiSDRcL2N3NUZoMD0ifQ%3D%3D

Even strong supporters like the NY Daily News are all over Hillary and her team on hiding her health information and general untruthfulness. In this mornings paper (Tuesday) here is a headline. “Clinton’s cover story for her pneumonia diagnosis further proves her first instinct is to lie”.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/clinton-pneumonia-cover-story-proves-instinct-lie-article-1.2788402?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%202016-09-13&utm_term=DailyNewsletter

What happens if she (or any candidate) has to drop out? The respective committees (DNC or RNC) pick the replacements.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/clinton-trump-sick-campaign-article-1.2788686?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%202016-09-13&utm_term=DailyNewsletter

Speaking of the election did you know this? From the WSJ: “The first absentee ballots of the general election were set to be mailed out on Friday in the battleground of North Carolina, marking the start of early voting across the nation”. Imagine that, one candidate goes down with an illness, the first of four debates (counting VP one) is weeks away and people can vote. How open minded do you think they are?

Trump and his words about Putin continue to get major play in the media and from his opposition. What do they want him to do, bring a Red Button to Russia to reset the bad relationship Bush had? Oh wait, Hillary did that. It worked. Remember?
Do you know that when she presented that red button (modeled after the Staples ad) she put the wrong Russian word on it? She put “peregruzka”, which in Russian means over charged. The Russian dipolmat said, “you got it wrong”.
Wait the smartest woman in the world and most ready person ever made another mistake? Really?


You know how we’ve ranted about states and their tax policies driving working citizen income down, and businesses out, while others make it inviting? Here’s an example I can share from a personal viewpoint. For ten days I drove the entire state of Texas. In every area, in every town, in remote spots and populated ones there was building going on. Building new roads, expanding highways, new office towers and housing. It was clear why Texas is booming. Imagine one state having three of the top five growing cities in the nation; and five of the top ten. Here’s the story if you want to verify this.http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/27/news/economy/us-fastest-growing-cities-texas/

Now contrast that with my home state of Connecticut. Thirty years ago is was a mini Texas. People and businesses moved to it because it was a no income tax state and very business friendly. It was booming. Then it changed philosophy and went the other way. Here’s quotes from a story this weekend from the business community on the state:
“A new survey of state business executives indicates while most companies reported profitable years in 2015, fewer than half plan to hire more employees”. Why?
“Nearly 80 percent of the executives said costs of conforming to state regulations is their biggest challenge, followed by taxes (74 percent), the unpredictability of the General Assembly (71 percent), and the lack of skilled workers (47 percent)”. What is the Democratic liberal reaction?
“But Speaker of the House Brendan Sharkey, D-Hamden, said the business organization’s agenda is critical of state government, and tainted by its announcement to support about 15 mostly Republican challengers against incumbent Democrats as part of a $400,000 fall election campaign. CBIA’s credibility as a true representative of business interests has been compromised when they decided to engage in political campaigning for the first time in memory, Sharkey said in a statement”.
Republican reaction to this?
“Senate Minority Leader Len Fasano, R-North Haven, said the survey underscores his criticism of the years-long Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. “It clearly shows that without the confidence in our state, businesses are not growing and don’t want to until the Legislature takes more responsibility, Without confidence that the Democratic majority will do it the right way, it translates to a stagnant economy”.

Who do think is doing it right? The business world has spoken.

Polls yesterday and this morning:
National:
LATimes Daily Poll: Even race yesterday, Trump by 2 today
NBC poll: Clinton by 2
State Polls:
JMC Analytics has Trump up 4 in Florida.
FoxDetroit has Clinton up 6 in Michigan.

 

9/11 and …….

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What a sobering day yesterday was with all the 9/11 remembrances, stories and film. A reminder of the enemy we fight and what they want to do to us because we are Americans and free. Let’s hope our nation stays vigilant. I am on the side that says our best way to do that is to keep after them and strike first. Playing defense only invites the next action.

One personal note here. Last week while visiting the George W. Bush library I was able to see personal notes from him and his closest aides while at the school where he was told, on the plane later and that evening. I came away so impressed with his leadership, clear thinking and complete understanding of what this meant. He knew it was war. A war that would be different, like none we had never fought before, and that it would take years. He made it clear from moment one that our response was going to be big and not one of those “crap things”. I contrast that with my memory of the media attacking him for staying in the classroom and not appreciating what was happening. The notes and messages told a different story. I am not a big Bush supporter, but on this day he was strong and clear.

One other thing. While we walked the library Nancy spent a lot of time in the classroom area that Laura Bush devoted her efforts to as First Lady. The library attendant told her a story of one the students in the room that day where the President was reading the book. She is grown now and a teacher herself. She recently brought her class to the library to share her experience with them.


The other big news yesterday was Hillary and her health. Her leaving the 9/11 ceremony was one thing. The video that someone shot later of her being held upright and almost falling was something else. It led even the skeptical media to ask questions. Quickly the Clinton camp said she was diagnosed with pneumonia on Friday. The media is not going to like not being told and she is in for a rough day Monday. Long range impact? It will depend on her debate performance. If she says she is recovered, shows up strong at the debate and stays strong for an hour and a half, she will be fine. But if she has a tough night, or another major incident this will become an issue. Right now her supporters will stay with her.

Before this incident Democrats were wondering and actually worried as to why she wasn’t further ahead of Trump. Even the liberal Washington Post was talking and asking about that.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-wonder-and-worry-why-isnt-clinton-far-ahead-of-trump/2016/09/09/543f3342-7693-11e6-8149-b8d05321db62_story.html

Polls over the weekend:
National:
ABC: Clinton by 5
LATimes; Clinton by 1
State Polls:
Trump up in: Nevada by 1;   Arizona by 2;  Georgia by 2.
Clinton up in: New Hampshire by 2;  Florida by 2;  Ohio by 7. (the later 2 are from CBS)
Senate Race Polls: Some good news for Republicans here.
NH: Kelly Ayotee up 8 in a potential Dem takeover. Big change.
Nevada: Republican up 2 (race for Harry Reid’s seat)
Georgia and Arizona, Republican incumbents up 15 and 18 respectively.
Indiana the Democrat Bayh is up 4 in a takeover opportunity.

Senate projection remains unchanged for now. We see a 50/50 spilt with VP having deciding vote.

Have a good week.

Weekend Edition

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Okay let’s start here. If you a Trump supporter consider yourself “deplorable”. Hillary said so. She said half are and since I am not, you must be.

Of course she apologized the next day but that strikes me as newsworthy too. You see for twenty plus years the liberals have told us she is “the smartest person in the world”. The “most ready candidate ever for President”. For someone so smart and worthy she sure seems to be apologizing often lately. Maybe she fell and hit her head or something.

Wait did I see this for real? “The United States and Russia hailed a breakthrough deal on Saturday to put Syria’s peace process back on track, including a nationwide ceasefire effective from sundown on Monday, improved aid access and joint targeting of banned militant Islamist groups.” Wasn’t it Donald Trump who was saying all week that wouldn’t it be great if the U.S. and Russia worked together in the area? Wasn’t he criticized at length by the Democrats and MSM for being too cozy with Putin? Am I missing something here?

By the way, all the talk of Aleppo and what Gary Johnson knew is missing the real point. You see in Aleppo, Assad and his army are using chemical weapons against them. The same chemical weapons that President Obama drew his red line over. The media isn’t covering this are they?

Did you see or hear that Mike Pence released his tax returns? Not much coverage. Why? The man reported income of $113,026 dollars. That’s it. The Clintons reported $10.6 million in income last year. The Kaines reported $313,441 in 2015 income. Hard for the MSM to cover this, they don’t know what to say about those rich Republicans.

Obama faces a challenge this weekend. The house and senate passed unanimously a bill allowing the families of those slain on 9/11 to sue the Saudi Arabia, where fifteen of the hijackers were citizens. The President has fought the bill and threatened to veto it.  Tough spot, especially this weekend.

Another challenge for the President is North Korea. Their conducting and exploding their fifth and largest nuclear weapon ever is a problem. It raises the question again. Where in the world are we in better shape because of the Obama, Clinton and Kerry foreign policy? Let me know.

People often ask me why “doesn’t this matter to Clinton voters”? Here’s one you won’t believe. Rasmussen survey, “Eighty-five percent (85%) of Democrats agree with 89% of GOP voters and 85% of voters not affiliated with either major party that a candidate’s health is important to their vote”.  In the same survey “only 17% of Democrats think Clinton’s health is a legitimate voter concern.” Go figure.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/democrats_agree_candidate_health_important_but_not_hillary_s

A few days ago we said the Clinton campaign was all negative with ads and messaging, nothing about her and why we should support her. Well the WSJ today reports, “Hillary Clinton’s campaign, heavy on attacks against Donald Trump, has concluded that it hasn’t done enough to telegraph a positive message, and plans a series of speeches aimed at defining her vision for the presidency.” Who told them?

Some poll analysis.
The FiveThirtyEight group known for their accuracy have Hillary with a 70% chance of winning. They see her with 310 electoral votes and Trump 227. Interestingly based upon the analysis we provided of highs and lows for each candidate they project today Hillary 47%, Trump 43% and Johnson 9%.
The Sabato Crystal Poll has a wider gap with Hillary getting 348 electoral votes and Trump 190. They also have the Senate going Democratic with 50 seats, Republicans 49, and the race in Nevada a toss up. I’m not sure about this. I think Penn. New Hampshire and possibly Indiana could be held by Republicans if Trump continues his gains.

The race is tighter now than at anytime the past two months. If Trump can stay on message and under control he can continue to gain and close the gap.

Aftermath

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The aftermath of the military forum continues. Two clear reasons why it was a bad day for Clinton. First she had a press conference at 9 AM to try and control the dialogue the day after. Her comments were all about what Trump said. Which raises a question too. What does Hillary stand for? Her ads, her words everything she does is about Trump. Where is she going to take this country? What are her accomplishments?

Then the left wing media and Hillary supporters took off on Matt Lauer. For what, for asking her questions about her emails? I thought he did a fair job, but the Hilary people were all over him. Imagine a MSM person asking her tough questions. That’s just not fair to them.

So after a debate or event watch what happens. In this case the Hillary team acted like they had a problem.

For Trump’s part many in the media took off after him yesterday (and into this morning) on his words about Putin and the Generals. Did he go too far? Yes, he needs to explain his position better. With the Generals the “rubble” he is talking about is that the President does not listen. They recommend troop levels, actions and activity but Obama reverts to retreat and doesn’t support them. That is real and he needs to explain it that way.

Will this impact the polls? I think it will, but not how you might conclude. I think some Hillary support softens again and you see next week her numbers at the low end of the season. I don’t think Trump goes up. He didn’t win new voters, and his ceiling is what it is still. She can decline a little. Watch this.

The Libertarian candidate Gary johnson took a big hit yesterday. He was pulling equally from both Trump and Clinton, so what do those people do now? It’s hard for him to recover as his exposure is limited but this gaffe got major coverage. Jill Stein (Green Party) knows less than Johnson. I have watched her interviews and when the tough questions come she is lost.

Amazing the choices we have this year.

A question as you watch the media go crazy. They are angry at Trump for wanting to build a wall right? Then they are angry too because he wants to build a partnership with Putin. Does that seem consistent to you? Is it just they are anti Trump?

Back in the 80’s the same media accused Reagan (and others before him on the right) of being war mongers and threats to the world because they would not talk to the Soviet leaders. Reagan was going to lead us to WW111. Remember that? He was bad, a danger, trigger happy. When he walked away from a deal because he didn’t like it they were ready to impeach him. (All he did was win the cold war without a shot being fired). Anyway, now Trump wants to build a relationship and that is bad. Is the media simply biased?

New polls yesterday and this AM.
Rasmussen: Clinton by 4
LATimes: Clinton by 1

Interesting State Polls just released:
Clinton leads in: Penn.: by 5,   NC: by 4,  Colorado by 5,  Oregon by 13
Trump: Ohio by 4
Florida: Tie
Trump still has a long way to go.

One story that may get play is the Hillary health one. Here’s an interesting one:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hillarys-health-concerns-serious-say-most-doctors-polled-by-the-association-of-american-physicians-and-surgeons-aaps-300325065.html