Election Day

So here we go, what should we watch for early tonight?

The key southern battleground states have to go to Romney or you can turn the lights out. If Florida goes Obama the race is over and that will deflate turnout in the west and hurt Republican congressional candiates.

A Romney win there and in North Carolina which I expect means it is about Virginia in the south. Both can win without Virginia, but it is much harder for Romney. Let’s give him Virginia and here’s what his electoral count looks like:

191 to start, + 29 Fla., + 15 NC, + 13 Va. = 248

The road to 270 from there.

I see Colorado going Romney. Add 9 that is 257.

Now it gets dicey. Ohio with 18 does it. I think the odds in Ohio are not good. You have to say that every poll is wrong and they don’t know what they are doing. A chance but slim.

That means he needs Wisconsin (10) plus either Iowa (6) or New Hampshire (4).   A tough haul to win all three since the final polls show Obama slightly ahead.

I don’t think Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Minnesota are really in play. So the keys for the night are the early returns from New Hampshire, Va. Fla. and NC. If all four break Romney brew some coffee and settle in. If the later three do, keep the pot warm. If Obama wins Virginia get ready to turn the lights out when Ohio is decided. If all four and Ohio break Romney, watch for a landslide.

That’s it for the Presidential race. The House will stay Republican. The Democrats will hold the senate 51 – 48. The Republicans blew it here.  So no matter who wins the Presidency the congress will be divided.

What to watch during the day? Turnout. Is there a big turnout and where is it? Is it conservative areas or inner city liberal? Turnout decides this election.

 

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