The Election The Day Before Debate Two

With debate number two scheduled for tomorrow between Obama and Romney where does this election stand? Here’s a quick look and what’s at stake:

Since Presidential debate one the momentum has been all Romney. He closed the gap and nationally he has this race dead even.

Dead even is not good for incumbents. The undecided vote breaks for the challenger. So an incumbent  below 50% going into election day has real concerns.

Romney’s edge is he has momentum and the national race is even. He needs to maintain that surge.

Now here is where Obama has an edge. Though the national polls are even, it is the electoral college where the election is decided. Obama leads there:

He has these nine states with 142 electoral votes locked. (270 needed to win)

California (55), Delaware (3), Dist. of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New York (29), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3)

Romney has these 13 states locked but only 76 votes.

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)

  Add the following seven states leaning Obama that total 59 additional electoral votes and he has 201.

Connecticut, Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington

Romney can add ten more states with a total of 115 electoral votes giving him 191. The ten are:

Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas.

So that means 11 states will decide the election no matter the national poll numbers. You keep hearing Ohio and how Romney can’t get there without it. Well it’s Florida that he has to win with it’s 29 electoral votes or he has no chance. He has taken the lead there but it is very close. Here are the eleven and where they stand today:

Colorado (9) – Romney leads by one point

Florida (29) –  Romney leads by 2-3 points

Iowa (6) –        Dead even

Michigan (16) – Obama leads by 5

Nevada (6) –     Obama leads by 2

New Hampshire (4) – Dead even

North Carolina (15)- Romney edging ahead by 2-3

Ohio (18) —      Obama leads by 3-4

Pennsylvania (20) —  Obama leads by 5

Virginia (13) — Romney leads by 1-2

Wisconsin (10) Obama leads by 5

If you add the states where they have slight edges to their totals then Romney adds to 257 and Obama would have 271, one more than needed with New Hampshire and Iowa not counted.

So there you have the stakes tomorrow night. Romney needs a strong performance to maintain his gains and add to them. He has closed the gap and can see a path, but he needs a dominant performance. President Obama needs to hold his own and stabilize the ship. If he can do that he has electoral college edge even if the national polls show a Romney edge. Romney if can flip Ohio can win. Without it he needs to add the states he is leading now (Florida, Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia) and add the two dead even states New Hampshire and Iowa while flipping Nevada. If not that he needs to flip a big one like Michigan or Pennsylvania, which is not likely.

The stakes are high for both men tomorrow night,

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